December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

The best part IMO is getting data faster

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think your area had more in 1996...I know I did.

Might be close. Hingham coop had 5.5” more in 14-15. 

[The 4 Seasons]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 77” in Se ORH county looks way off. Which coop was that? I doubt Milford since Milford isn’t that bad of a coop. If it’s Northbridge, beware…I used to toss them regularly.

Yep, Northbridge COOP it seems. I noticed that too I'll keep that in mind, i want to redo all these next year and make them more accurate. Some of the COOP sites drive me crazy they are either suspiciously low all the time or suspiciously high and many of them ALWAYS report in whole numbers which also drives me crazy. Like Thomaston Dam, West Thompson Lake, Mount Carmel in CT are always reporting low and round down...to the nearest integer. Back in the day, especially prior to 2007ish and definitely in the 90s all there was was COOP. 

Another one is Lawrence, MA COOP it's always been insanely low and whole numbers only, while the Gardner COOP has been on the other end of the spectrum.

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still have an * at Blue Hill but whatever. It was a shit ton of snow.

Care to elaborate? Blue Hill, to me, appears like the snow magnet capital of E MA. They seem to jackpot a lot and do extremely well in marginal situations but it's not like their elevation is 1k+ or something, it's only 635 which im sure helps but not to the extent i see some of these storms and totals they have. Like March 4-6th, 2001, Feb 1-3, 2021 or March 13-15th, 2023 are good examples off the top of my head.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yep, Northbridge COOP it seems. I noticed that too I'll keep that in mind, i want to redo all these next year and make them more accurate. Some of the COOP sites drive me crazy they are either suspiciously low all the time or suspiciously high and many of them ALWAYS report in whole numbers which also drives me crazy. Like Thomaston Dam, West Thompson Lake, Mount Carmel in CT are always reporting low and round down...to the nearest integer. Back in the day, especially prior to 2007ish and definitely in the 90s all there was was COOP. 

Another one is Lawrence, MA COOP it's always been insanely low and whole numbers only, while the Gardner COOP has been on the other end of the spectrum.

Care to elaborate? Blue Hill, to me, appears like the snow magnet capital of E MA. They seem to jackpot a lot and do extremely well in marginal situations but it's not like their elevation is 1k+ or something, it's only 635 which im sure helps but not to the extent i see some of these storms and totals they have. Like March 4-6th, 2001, Feb 1-3, 2021 or March 13-15th, 2023 are good examples off the top of my head.

All the events we had during the epic stretch were cold events. Blue hill shines in the marginal events where that 630’ elevation really helps them stand out. 

The two events that really stood out to me were the longer duration event and the event during Valentine’s Day and the day after. But I was most surprised at the long duration event. They were removed from the heaviest echoes for awhile and had close to what I had. I find that hard to believe. There was no physical reason for them to have more. This isn’t an upslope deal either. Also heard from a former observer that they have peculiar ways of measuring because of wind and throws a little uncertainty…..but naturally I get that because I have wind issues too. But to have almost 25” more than I had does not make sense to me. 
In a winter like that the error bars are fairly high so like I said….whatever….but as someone who feels like they can sniff out oddities…that one surprised me.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All the events we had during the epic stretch were cold events. Blue hill shines in the marginal events where that 630’ elevation really helps them stand out. 

The two events that really stood out to me were the longer duration event and the event during Valentine’s Day and the day after. But I was most surprised at the long duration event. They were removed from the heaviest echoes for awhile and had close to what I had. I find that hard to believe. There was no physical reason for them to have more. This isn’t an upslope deal either. Also heard from a former observer that they have peculiar ways of measuring because of wind and throws a little uncertainty…..but naturally I get that because I have wind issues too. But to have almost 25” more than I had does not make sense to me. 
In a winter like that the error bars are fairly high so like I said….whatever….but as someone who feels like they can sniff out oddities…that one surprised me.

Do you smell what the Euro is cooking? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be close. Hingham coop had 5.5” more in 14-15. 

I guess 2015 was a bit more CJey than 1996...I had a foot more in the latter...probably also because March turned SOP in 2015...1996 did not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Do you smell what the doggie is cooking? 

https://youtu.be/S1yn-x_WTuA

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess 2015 was a bit more CJey than 1996...I had a foot more in the latter...probably also because March turned SOP in 2015...1996 did not.

I actually kind of get screwed on SoP deals, especially the ones that seem to love CT-RI-TAN. I have decent latitude and I tend to pork in those events. March 15 was just scrapes and scraps here. More or less pack refreshers. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Do you smell what the Euro is cooking? 

Hopefully something better than the 12z gfs and Canadian.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess 2015 was a bit more CJey than 1996...I had a foot more in the latter...probably also because March turned SOP in 2015...1996 did not.

1995-1996 had some semi-interior events too. 12/9, 1/12, and the dual April storms. Coastline struggled a little bit on all of those. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

1995-1996 had some semi-interior events too. 12/9, 1/12, and the dual April storms. Coastline struggled a little bit on all of those. 

Yea, 1996 had a secondary jack over ORH CO....spread the wealth more. Bit like 1994 in the regard.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Do you smell what the Euro is cooking? 

Fffftttts…?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

1995-1996 had some semi-interior events too. 12/9, 1/12, and the dual April storms. Coastline struggled a little bit on all of those. 

1/12 hurt. Rain after an inch of slop. 

[Spanks45]

GFS looks fun, if you want to escape any snow past the 23rd/24th "event".....Sheesh, I know it is the OP Post 144 hrs, but seriously that is hideous

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

1/12 hurt. Rain after an inch of slop. 

I managed like 5" of slop in that.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

1/12 hurt. Rain after an inch of slop. 

Yeah and we had about 11-12” of dense snow in that one. It wasn’t fluff. It was cold/dry but like very dense. Made the pack beyond obscene. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://youtu.be/S1yn-x_WTuA

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS looks fun, if you want to escape any snow past the 23rd/24th "event".....Sheesh, I know it is the OP Post 144 hrs, but seriously that is hideous

Actually a decent illustration of how mild it will get if we don’t get good blocking. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Actually a decent illustration of how mild it will get if we don’t get good blocking. 

I still suspect the blocking is being overdone, but hopefully we deviate a bit from my seasonal.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ariof said:

95" in 30 days is not only the highest 30-day snowfall in BOS, but more than any 30-day period in any major city in the country. (BUF had 80" in a week in Dec 2001 but very little on either side; Orchard Park has seen more but BUF is a smaller city and the totals are banded mesoscale, not the synoptic 90"+ around BOS.) I think Sapporo has had a couple of 100" months, and it's probably the only large (2m+) city to have ever seen a heavier 30-day snowfall than that 30-day period in BOS.

Not even close to a major city, but Machias Maine, at 20' elev, had 106.3" from Jan 25-Feb 23, 2015.  Meanwhile in the (usually) snowier foothills, we had 52.5" during the same period.

We had 60.1" in 31 days, Feb 10-Mar 12, 2005.  In Fort Kent, tops was 63.0" from Dec 7, 1976 thru Jan 6, 1977.  December alone had 61.5".

[SouthCoastMA]

I will accept a 12/27 torching..which seems evident on most of the 12z models..if we can maximize 12/23

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we had about 11-12” of dense snow in that one. It wasn’t fluff. It was cold/dry but like very dense. Made the pack beyond obscene. 

Yeah that nice event after the 96 blizz was max pack here. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not even close to a major city, but Machias Maine, at 20' elev, had 106.3" from Jan 25-Feb 23, 2015.  Meanwhile in the (usually) snowier foothills, we had 52.5" during the same period.

We had 60.1" in 31 days, Feb 10-Mar 12, 2005.  In Fort Kent, tops was 63.0" from Dec 7, 1976 thru Jan 6, 1977.  December alone had 61.5".

 So I have to look, but from 1/24 to 2/24 we had over 100” here. Won’t see that again. 

[Lava Rock]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not even close to a major city, but Machias Maine, at 20' elev, had 106.3" from Jan 25-Feb 23, 2015.  Meanwhile in the (usually) snowier foothills, we had 52.5" during the same period.

We had 60.1" in 31 days, Feb 10-Mar 12, 2005.  In Fort Kent, tops was 63.0" from Dec 7, 1976 thru Jan 6, 1977.  December alone had 61.5".

can't believe it's been nearly 11yrs

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I will accept a 12/27 torching..which seems evident on most of the 12z models..if we can maximize 12/23

AI looks much less torchy for gfs. Skynet has a nice borderline warning event on the 28th but you’re too far south verbatim.

[WinterWolf]

Ops gonna op…take away is, the signal for 12/23 is decent. And there will be action/chances. Hope we are on the right side. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully euro and EPS hold because the other guidance taking a shit on winter at 12z. 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I will accept a 12/27 torching..which seems evident on most of the 12z models..if we can maximize 12/23

One op run. There is no torch 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a bunch of melts over an op run lol. Everyone was feeling great like 3 hours ago until the gfs came out 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

AI looks much less torchy for gfs. Skynet has a nice borderline warning event on the 28th but you’re too far south verbatim.

12z Euro skynet is out too and looks pretty stormy and not overly torchy over the run. I don’t think it’s a very good pattern unless we retrograde it a couple hundred miles at minimum but it wouldn’t take a whole lot of breaks to get through it with a couple decent events.