December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes is top notch. No one better at pattern recognition 

I tried to play the video…it wouldn’t play for me.  Guess you need the app. 

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes is top notch. No one better at pattern recognition 

He’s established and respected.  Not some nobody looking for web clicks.  He has to believe it on some level.

12/9 with Light Snow.  A nice dusting over the past hour.  Visibilities staying high though at 3sm.

[alex]

Looks like we’re in for a good pack wiping up here

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, alex said:

Looks like we’re in for a good pack wiping up here

Wth temps near 40 and only for a few hours followed quickly by upslope and a surprise Sunday storm its back to your regularly scheduled program 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wth temps near 40 and only for a few hours followed quickly by upslope and a surprise Sunday storm its back to your regularly scheduled program 

What a run its been.  The rainless streak is about to end for the mountains, and this one could be a solid soaker.

It won't be out of the ordinary, IMO, for a cutter this time of year... but its felt like a good month since we've had a healthy cutter.

Two straight weeks to start December at -10.5F departure and plentiful snow, following a cool and wet November that featured plenty of higher elevation snows.

Sucks, but it wasn't going to be snowless and warm out west all season... same with it wasn't going to be cold, deep powder all season here.  Once it starts to snow in the Sierra and Rockies, it will signal a change. 

The surface conditions are going to change in New England, but the snowpack should still be solidly above normal.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a run its been.  The rainless streak is about to end for the mountains, and this one could be a solid soaker.

It won't be out of the ordinary, IMO, for a cutter this time of year... but its felt like a good month since we've had a healthy cutter.

Two straight weeks to start December at -10.5F departure and plentiful snow, following a cool and wet November that featured plenty of higher elevation snows.

Sucks, but it wasn't going to be snowless and warm out west all season... same with it wasn't going to be cold, deep powder all season here.  Once it starts to snow in the Sierra and Rockies, it will signal a change. 

The surface conditions are going to change in New England, but the snowpack should still be solidly above normal.

You will have another foot at Mt Friday to Sunday 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a run its been.  The rainless streak is about to end for the mountains, and this one could be a solid soaker.

It won't be out of the ordinary, IMO, for a cutter this time of year... but its felt like a good month since we've had a healthy cutter.

Two straight weeks to start December at -10.5F departure and plentiful snow, following a cool and wet November that featured plenty of higher elevation snows.

Sucks, but it wasn't going to be snowless and warm out west all season... same with it wasn't going to be cold, deep powder all season here.  Once it starts to snow in the Sierra and Rockies, it will signal a change. 

The surface conditions are going to change in New England, but the snowpack should still be solidly above normal.

After King Grinch in 2020 I’m always gonna be wary of a big cutter wiping pack to bare ground, but this looks like it’s been trending toward quite a blast of cold at the end without high end warmth here. Maybe some backend snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.  
 

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will have another foot at Mt Friday to Sunday 

It wants to snow.  Another little wave moving through this evening.  Persistent -SN.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.  
 

I know, but the result of that catastrophe is tattooed inside my eyelids. 

[ariof]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After King Grinch in 2020 I’m always gonna be wary of a big cutter wiping pack to bare ground, but this looks like it’s been trending toward quite a blast of cold at the end without high end warmth here. Maybe some backend snow. 

This grinch may be weak sauce compared with other years (and certainly 2020). 00Z op GFS CADs NNE and some areas barely get to 40. Surface winds don't look that bad, either. 

On the 12Z and 18Z GFS, MVL is showing ~6 hours above 40, BML barely cracks 40. The ECMWF spikes both sites to 50 but not for very long.

Compare that to the mega grinch: MVL was above 50˚ for 22 hours, and above 40˚ for 37! BML was 22 and 44 hours! At least that year we got to sit outside in t-shirts and let the winds blow he covid around.

(Had there been snowpack, the 2015 grinch would have been worse, with temperatures pushing 70˚ in Vermont; but there was nothing to steal.)

[Torch Tiger]

[Torch Tiger]

0z gfs la-la land does look quite promising beyond that.  there's a hella -NAO, ridge flex Ireland to nearly Baffin Island

[Snowedin]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Exactly what I’ve come to expect on Christmas Day for about the past 15 years..we take!

[Torch Tiger]

49 minutes ago, Snowedin said:

Exactly what I’ve come to expect on Christmas Day for about the past 15 years..we take!

At least you aren't angry about it lol

[Torch Tiger]

snowedin knows it just takes that one south shore tuck storm, to net that area at least 20 if not 40-50 inches in 12 hours

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Still looks like seasonable cold after Friday mornings torch, Christmas eve Miracle still alive and well.. Ops will waffle with this still we start trying to nail down the placement of it if it's still there this weekend.. 

[ineedsnow]

insane amounts of snow in British Columbia.. found a 397 amount.. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025121606&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[moneypitmike]

If the number of posts reflects the amount of enthusiasm of what the models show, today is about as exciting as Kevin tracking dew points in July.

[Ginx snewx]

Volatile.  Good luck nailing 23rd to 27th sensible weather. Snow? Ice? Rain? SWFE? Redeveloper? Anything is possible. Difficult but man so interesting from a geeks perspective. Stay tuned. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Volatile.  Good luck nailing 23rd to 27th sensible weather. Snow? Ice? Rain? SWFE? Redeveloper? Anything is possible. Difficult but man so interesting from a geeks perspective. Stay tuned. 

For once, I like my locale relative to the rest of SNE...Maine looks to cash in. The further NE away from that ridge, the better the prospects of remaining wintry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IDK about the rest of you guys, but in a rudimentary sense...give me volatility, over the single digits on NW flow.

[CoastalWx]

Hoping for clippers on this flow. I don’t know man. Hopefully Euro AI has a clue. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Both GFS and EURO OPs (00z) give many a white Xmas.....non-negligible signal at day 9. Euro more xmas eve and GFS Day.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes knows 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gun-to-head...I think a lot of us pull a white xmas out of our rear stocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes knows 

I mean, it's not hopeless....which in and of itself is all you can ask for.

[CoastalWx]

It’s definitely not hopeless. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 years ago today, the best SWFE that god ever created was upon us.

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For once, I like my locale relative to the rest of SNE...Maine looks to cash in. The further NE away from the ridge, the better the prospects of remaining wintry.

Just get us through Friday.  Yuck.