December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is getting out of hand and becoming dangerous very quickly. 

Are you referring to AI in general or only to the AI weather models?

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is getting out of hand and becoming dangerous very quickly. 

For some reason Instagram's algorthims likes to suggest me AI videos of morbidly obese people falling through floors. I guarantee a lot of people think this stuff is real, especially the grandpas/grandmas. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Are you referring to AI in general or only to the AI weather models?

Why would AI weather models be dangerous? 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Are you referring to AI in general or only to the AI weather models?

AI in general. 

It's scary what can be done and so quickly. A friend of mine and I took a picture together at a Wolf Pack game on opening night and one of our friends made some AI video of it in two seconds and it was not something rather appropriate...and it looked very real. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Why would AI weather models be dangerous? 

I am asking for a clarification

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

For some reason Instagram's algorthims likes to suggest me AI videos of morbidly obese people falling through floors. I guarantee a lot of people think this stuff is real, especially the grandpas/grandmas. 

Those float around Facebook too...and there's this huge circulation too of videos of like destructive weather or chain reaction accidents. I guess at least there is wording that says, "This is AI generated and only for your entertainment" but it's stupid and dangerous. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Why would AI weather models be dangerous? 

His question was valid given my open disdain about AI weather models lol

[Fozz]

It was 12 degrees this morning, with a fresh covering of 1.5” of snow in mid-December.

Deep winter at its best 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

AI in general. 

It's scary what can be done and so quickly. A friend of mine and I took a picture together at a Wolf Pack game on opening night and one of our friends made some AI video of it in two seconds and it was not something rather appropriate...and it looked very real. 

I agree...just read the article about the former member of the Rice University Womens Soccer team.

I am a long time chess player, AI has been a part of the chess world for many years. It is a valuable tool in the chess world...so there are situations where AI can have a positive impact but to your point I agree with you for the most part.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

His question was valid given my open disdain about AI weather models lol

I am not sure why anyone would object to the question I asked...

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I am not sure why anyone would object to the question I asked...

I just wasn't sure how they would be dangerous? Unless AI was used to create fakess outputs/forecasts to fool people..which I suppose could be true. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I just wasn't sure how they would be dangerous? Unless AI was used to create fakess outputs/forecasts to fool people..which I suppose could be true. 

Because some people take them as "gospel" ????

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree...just read the article about the former member of the Rice University Womens Soccer team.

I am a long time chess player, AI has been a part of the chess world for many years. It is a valuable tool in the chess world...so there are situations where AI can have a positive impact but to your point I agree with you for the most part.

As much as I don't like AI, that doesn't mean I don't believe there is value in it, however, I don't think its value outweighs the "bad" and that's where I see the problem. 

In terms of weather, I think AI could have tremendous value in the nowcasting (<6-12) hour window, particularly when it comes to severe weather and flash flooding potential. In terms though of using AI as like medium/extended range (maybe even short range), I see little value - AI models in this range will not tell us what a great forecaster will not already know. The only way we will ever greatly improve forecasting skill in this range is to better understand how the atmosphere and how it evolves and better understanding physics and processes...then it's taken that and quantifying that numerically so computers can process this information. 

Computer forecast models struggle as you move away from initialization because of compounding error. This was why for a prolonged period of time the euro was by far and away the best, it had superior initialization skill - the euro would have very few error inside of 72 hours which resulted in greater accuracy through 5 to even 7 days. AI isn't going to solve medium-to-long range error or reduce inconsistencies...AI will not do this until we ourselves are better able to understand this and teach the algorithm to do this.  

[dendrite]

Hal…is it going to be a nice day to hike Mt Washington today?

”Yes Dave. It looks warm and beautiful. Wear light clothing”

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

AI in general. 

It's scary what can be done and so quickly. A friend of mine and I took a picture together at a Wolf Pack game on opening night and one of our friends made some AI video of it in two seconds and it was not something rather appropriate...and it looked very real. 

That's not the scary part.  Not really.  

The scary part is that there are those that seem to be "gifted" in their utilization of the technology - just naturally so.  Like they seem to gravitate toward usage. Just seemed 'get it' with a lucidity in engagement that makes them synergistic, ( potentially ) immensely powerful - with great power comes great responsibility.

How irresponsible is that going to be?   

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I just wasn't sure how they would be dangerous? Unless AI was used to create fakess outputs/forecasts to fool people..which I suppose could be true. 

 

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Because some people take them as "gospel" ????

Bingo. That's exactly what I could see happening. People in charge of making critical decisions will take AI at face value and that will set the stage for some disastrous decision making. And I'm not even talking in the sense of general public - this could be anything, logistics, supply chain, resource distribution, etc

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

His question was valid given my open disdain about AI weather models lol

Why do you have disdain for AI weather models?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

As much as I don't like AI, that doesn't mean I don't believe there is value in it, however, I don't think its value outweighs the "bad" and that's where I see the problem. 

In terms of weather, I think AI could have tremendous value in the nowcasting (<6-12) hour window, particularly when it comes to severe weather and flash flooding potential. In terms though of using AI as like medium/extended range (maybe even short range), I see little value - AI models in this range will not tell us what a great forecaster will not already know. The only way we will ever greatly improve forecasting skill in this range is to better understand how the atmosphere and how it evolves and better understanding physics and processes...then it's taken that and quantifying that numerically so computers can process this information. 

Computer forecast models struggle as you move away from initialization because of compounding error. This was why for a prolonged period of time the euro was by far and away the best, it had superior initialization skill - the euro would have very few error inside of 72 hours which resulted in greater accuracy through 5 to even 7 days. AI isn't going to solve medium-to-long range error or reduce inconsistencies...AI will not do this until we ourselves are better able to understand this and teach the algorithm to do this.  

Essentially the best chess AI's are self taught so that may be the best approach to take  with AI weather models as opposed to teaching the model(s)

[Cold Miser]

Hopes and dreams of snow never did anyone any good.

Reality is a bitch, and right now the bitch is having her way driving weenies nuts.  

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Bingo. That's exactly what I could see happening. People in charge of making critical decisions will take AI at face value and that will set the stage for some disastrous decision making. And I'm not even talking in the sense of general public - this could be anything, logistics, supply chain, resource distribution, etc

Thanks for the explanation. In theory though, they should end up more skillful than what we have now..so it can't be much worse than current day? 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why do you have disdain for AI weather models?

Yeah I don’t understand it either. It’s a new tool that should improve over time. Gotta keep pushing forward with progress. Some paths are deadends, but some become the main artery. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It was 12 degrees this morning, with a fresh covering of 1.5” of snow in mid-December.

Deep winter at its best 

No, you’re not playing right, you need to constantly be dissatisfied and fretting about the next storm threat.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why do you have disdain for AI weather models?

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I don’t understand it either. It’s a new tool that should improve over time. Gotta keep pushing forward with progress. Some paths are deadends, but some become the main artery. 

Kind of explained it in a post above but I'll add more.

We should be focusing on the resources needed to better what we currently have instead of just adding more tools to the toolbox. Now, if AI will be used to better the initialization/parameterization process, that would be amazing. But at the end of the day we still need better computing technology (which we have, we just need it within the field). Quantum computing is going to go a sizable way I think here. Parameterize better and improve initialization, those two alone will go a great way in forecast model accuracy and hopefully reduce inconsistency. If AI models are just going to add to the list of potential outcomes and increase uncertainty, then what good is it? 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Kind of explained it in a post above but I'll add more.

We should be focusing on the resources needed to better what we currently have instead of just adding more tools to the toolbox. Now, if AI will be used to better the initialization/parameterization process, that would be amazing. But at the end of the day we still need better computing technology (which we have, we just need it within the field). Quantum computing is going to go a sizable way I think here. Parameterize better and improve initialization, those two alone will go a great way in forecast model accuracy and hopefully reduce inconsistency. If AI models are just going to add to the list of potential outcomes and increase uncertainty, then what good is it? 

Paul, I think your approach narrows the possibilities.  I mean isn’t AI inherently “better computing” considering the concept is deep learning?  I think AI can be tweaked when we see where it needs to be quickly.  As a crude example, my phone quickly learns how I use “muthufukka”.    Phones five years ago took much longer and my next phone should even learn it faster.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Paul, I think your approach narrows the possibilities.  I mean isn’t AI inherently “better computing” considering the concept is deep learning?  I think AI can be tweaked when we see where it needs to be quickly.  As a crude example, my phone quickly learns how I use “muthufukka”.    Phones five years ago it took much longer and my next phone should even learn it faster.

No disagreement there, but (and maybe I am flat out wrong on this) we can't teach AI something that we don't know ourselves. For example, when it comes to physics and mathematics, AI isn't going to teach us or give us a better understanding of how atmospheric physics works and how these processes behave and evolve. Let's look at thunderstorms, for example. There are certain processes which occur during a thunderstorms life cycle that we know happen, however, we don't fully know why certain processes happen the way they do or what is the leading contributor. Tornadogenesis is one...we know the ingredients needed for tornadoes, we know how tornadoes form, but we don't know fully understand why some supercells (which look tornadic based on visual features/radar features) produce tornadoes and others don't...AI isn't going to solve something like that. AI isn't going to tell us this because we don't understand it ourselves and we don't have all the necessary data and measurements to be able to do so. 

But with the phone example, its learning faster because it has a basis to go on...it understands something because that something is known. There are many meteorological processes which we know exist and understand their existence, but don't fully know the why/how.

AI will be a major help though in calculating mathematical/physics calculations much more quickly which will hopefully get us faster model output in the future. 

[Typhoon Tip]

--I wouldn't call it "disdain", per se.   But definitely reservations.  Certainly, a measured approach - not happening.... 

One should  always understand "how" things work. It's a virtuosity that ...even if folks had the presence of mind to see and fulfill ( which is seldom observed -), there's too much.  AI adds to the growing menagerie of things people don't really understand as they navigate modernity - just handed instructions on how to use by economic enterprises.  Good luck.  Yet, it is at a sort of 'intellectual event horizon' beyond which it cannot be fathomed, even if they wanted to - not by 98% of the using population. It's not intellectually tenable.  This creates a wider gap, one that may not be bridge-able. 

There is a crisis of social mores, and breakdown of common morality.  Example, what used to keep mass shootings ( for example) down to one or two every 10 years going back to the 1920s. People just didn't act to absurdly. Much less conceive of ever doing so in the first place.  All but just a very small tiny fraction of beyond-fringe psychosis were at least sufficiently guided; they acted as at least tenuous, but in place nonetheless, safe-guards that kept things in check.  Now?  one every 6 months, a number that far exceeds the "very small fraction" number, too.   

Something is extraordinarily motivating,  enough so to indoctrinate merely untoward ideologies into committing to specific actions.   

And if anyone has a modicum of understanding about sociology and history, they'll see that the most fantastic force to ever have impacted humanity, during and immediately preceding that uprising, wasn't just fire or the wheel. It has been this unchecked innovation -->  advent of technologies, since the Industrial Revolution, that is proven too profoundly capable of unilaterally either helping, or afflicting at a species level.  The fairest way to define this era is truly a techno-sociological experiment at an evolutionary scale - one that 90some% of the population density will lack the capacity to even be aware of what it is they are being unwittingly subjected to ... 

Can't end well playing with Cosmos' gun.  

Failure to understand and commit to the virtuosity of understanding how something works, that same something that one is allowing to guide them?  That is a problem when people intertwine with it in blind presumptive faith.  From one end of the spectrum of miss-use, to the other end of becoming co-dependent, then having it fail:  Where does that leave us?    

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The future is scary. Hide yo kids, hide yo wives…

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

No, you’re not playing right, you need to constantly be dissatisfied and fretting about the next storm threat.

Lol… Very wintry out there for sure. Enjoy and appreciate.   

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol… Very wintry out there for sure. Enjoy and appreciate.   

Was outside last night want to say it was around 9:00 or so and it was very peaceful just looking around and seeing everything covered in snow with Christmas lights...for some reason, this scenery makes it so you don't even feel the cold. All it takes is a couple inches of snow to totally change the mood.

[metagraphica]

Heckin' wimdy out there today. Low roar in the treetops and cold as a muthafukka.

And finally after all this cold we have full coverage in New England.  Wintah!