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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Masswx
Masswx

Hopefully this euro run give my dad @CoastalWxfaith again

dendrite
dendrite

The whole run looks feasible   

dendrite
dendrite

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Once again, we added another negative variable over the last 24+ hours. Not only is it still not turning the corner, it’s kind of lost its potency so even on some of those earlier runs without much coastal involvement we were getting a couple inches.

Now, over the last several cycles, that has kind of disappeared 

18z NAM was an example... on that run, more energy was able to compensate a little for the worse tilt and southeast squash

To echo what CoastalWx and others have said... I remember the occasions, felt like a few times every season, when we were micro-analyzing such details with huge stakes on the eve of classic KUs. Now the stakes are a few inches and it's tiring.

0z Euro continued to tick the trough more positive and outcome more southeast... maybe 1-3" south coast, 3-4" outer Cape. 0z AIFS a hair better.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Isn't the euro out soon?

Tick south.

It’s funny. Looping the trend over the last 24-36hrs it ticks south at 00/12 and north at 06/18. If you’re still an offhour conspiracy theorist there ya go. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Even on a system like this, the new Pit manages to have rain mentioned in the forecast

Saturday Night

A slight chance of rain before 8pm, then snow. Low around 26. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
 
Sunday
Snow, mainly before 2pm. High near 34. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol 06z euro trying to suck us back in. 
 

 

probably warning snow on south coast with that look

 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its only a couple of tenths I mean why not. Let's ratio the shit out of this POS

All other guidance is like .1 to .2" qpf while euro is double that .. With ratios thats the difference between a fluffy 1-3" on most guidance .. While euro is widespread 2-4" up to 6" with the ratios in southern CT.. I'd assume there'd be a few hours of a legit band with that look..  But 6z EURO is tossed until it gets support.

I'm all for it .. but I just don't believe it , if 12z amps back up then I'll entertain

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

probably warning snow on south coast with that look

 

All other guidance is like .1 to .2" qpf while euro is double that .. With ratios thats the difference between a fluffy 1-3" on most guidance .. While euro is widespread 2-4" up to 6" with the ratios in southern CT.. I'd assume there'd be a few hours of a legit band with that look..  But 6z EURO is tossed until it gets support

I’ve been saying for 3-4 years that the off hr runs were different …and was laughed at.  Now you know Wolfie knew. 
 

So the question needs to be Asked, are the off hr runs right? Or are the 0z and 12z right?  :axe:   So which runs should be tossed? 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

probably warning snow on south coast with that look

 

All other guidance is like .1 to .2" qpf while euro is double that .. With ratios thats the difference between a fluffy 1-3" on most guidance .. While euro is widespread 2-4" up to 6" with the ratios in southern CT.. I'd assume there'd be a few hours of a legit band with that look..  But 6z EURO is tossed until it gets support.

I'm all for it .. but I just don't believe it , if 12z amps back up then I'll entertain

You guys to Brett and points south at least have a shot at advisory.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Something to think about. The 3 Virginia snow storms this month all were pretty far SE and weak and really bumped up the last 36-48 hours. Let’s see if 12 and 00z do that 

Good point.  As I just said…which runs do we toss? Off hr, or on hr? 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Something to think about. The 3 Virginia snow storms this month all were pretty far SE and weak and really bumped up the last 36-48 hours. Let’s see if 12 and 00z do that 

We need another 50-75 miles from scooter to me to you to feel decent. Gotta have the bump today…getting too close. 

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