December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[kdxken]

25° and a couple flakes. Looks like a few more this morning.

[kdxken]

For Iseesnow.

 

[Spanks45]

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Straight up whiffing on these op runs. Weak.

You can feel the angst growing after each set of model runs....hard to deny the stretch of years filled with warmish/wet to cold/dry. You would have to think one of these cold patterns would yield some luck. Nice 15 minute burst of snow this morning though....

[Damage In Tolland]

When we’re getting our rocks off on 15 minute bursts of snows.. we know it’s as bad as it gets 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When we’re getting our rocks off on 15 minute bursts of snows.. we know it’s as bad as it gets 

But the Mansfield stake….

[ORH_wxman]

12/13-14 looks decent on EPS. That’s really our one hope in the next week. It’s too bad we somehow get a clipper to run into Ottawa next Wednesday despite a monster west based NAO block….thats the kind of stuff that’s been happening to us. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/13-14 looks decent on EPS. That’s really our one hope in the next week. It’s too bad we somehow get a clipper to run into Ottawa next Wednesday despite a monster west based NAO block….thats the kind of stuff that’s been happening to us. 

It’s an insert every power tool in shed and turn on kind of pattern 

[CoastalWx]

At least VA gets another snow.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s an insert every power tool in shed and turn on kind of pattern 

I feel like prob 2/3rds of the time in this type of blocking pattern, that clipper would go south of us or even tracking over us would work with the antecedent airmass. Oh well…we’ll have additional chances though. You just hope you finally hit on a couple before Xmas. 

[kdxken]

Those who have snow look to keep it. I feel for the folks who don't 

 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s an insert every power tool in shed and turn on kind of pattern 

May have to rent in Auger. Powderfreak can operate it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

May have to rent in Auger. Powderfreak can operate it. 

That freaking Pacific is killing us. That fast flow that we worried about all autumn . Something has to break 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Biggest issue I see right now is the lack of upstream ridging to slow flow down and allow for more amplification. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That freaking Pacific is killing us. That fast flow that we worried about all autumn . Something has to break 

We didn’t really have fast flow autumn.

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/13-14 looks decent on EPS. That’s really our one hope in the next week. It’s too bad we somehow get a clipper to run into Ottawa next Wednesday despite a monster west based NAO block….thats the kind of stuff that’s been happening to us. 

I want to say it’s a “what can go wrong, will go wrong” type of pattern, but stepping back, we weren’t expecting most of NE to get snow in the first week of December until the models sold us that hopium of a SNE event. In fact, we were expecting a torch the week prior.

That system trended colder at the low levels at the last second, giving more people frozen than we assumed just 24 hours prior, and today some of those areas are getting measurable, albeit minor, from a Fraud 5.

The pattern is far from ideal, but we’re looking into the few days before Christmas now and a torch looks increasingly unlikely with plenty of shortwaves moving through the flow. The tradeoff is no KU potential, but I’m sure 90% of the subforum would take cold and no Grinch with minor stuff delivering at least some cover through Christmas than some high risk high reward pattern. 

If we get to the 20th and it’s snake eyes, then it’s time to sound the alarm.

[CoastalWx]

13th definitely has some potential. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I want to say it’s a “what can go wrong, will go wrong” type of pattern, but stepping back, we weren’t expecting most of NE to get snow in the first week of December until the models sold us that hopium of a SNE event. In fact, we were expecting a torch the week prior.

That system trended colder at the low levels at the last second, giving more people frozen than we assumed just 24 hours prior, and today some of those areas are getting measurable, albeit minor, from a Fraud 5.

The pattern is far from ideal, but we’re looking into the few days before Christmas now and a torch looks increasingly unlikely with plenty of shortwaves moving through the flow. The tradeoff is no KU potential, but I’m sure 90% of the subforum would take cold and no Grinch with minor stuff delivering at least some cover through Christmas than some high risk high reward pattern. 

If we get to the 20th and it’s snake eyes, then it’s time to sound the alarm.

Some models hint at some warmth 18-20. I mean what could go wrong here?

 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Biggest issue I see right now is the lack of upstream ridging to slow flow down and allow for more amplification. 

That has been an issue for years. Its really annoying. 

We need to get back to the winters of coastal storms. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least VA gets another snow.

Big winter for the lakes. The waters are extremely warm. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Big winter for the lakes. The waters are extremely warm. 

I don’t think so, now. Starting to get ice.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some models hint at some warmth 18-20. I mean what could go wrong here?

 

The Grinch is always lurking. Just a part of life now. If we got a blizzard on the 12-13th I’d still worry about a disaster in advance of Christmas. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Expect nothing before the 12/13th. Though we need to hit on that for board morale

[SouthCoastMA]

What if the warmth being muted mid-month was just the pattern being delayed til Christmas, instead of denied 

[SouthCoastMA]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think so, now. Starting to get ice.

CC bay already close to mid 40s. That might help later

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

What if the warmth being muted mid-month was just the pattern being delayed til Christmas, instead of denied 

Dark thoughts on this Saturday morning 

[Modfan2]

So when we talk winter forecasts about December being front loaded are models talking precip or temps? It has definitely been cold from Mid November on but worried like the last few years that precip chances will not mesh with the cold like the last few seasons; especially pike south. 
 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Poundtown down here.  1/4".

[CoastalWx]

Please 13th work out. 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/13-14 looks decent on EPS. That’s really our one hope in the next week. It’s too bad we somehow get a clipper to run into Ottawa next Wednesday despite a monster west based NAO block….thats the kind of stuff that’s been happening to us. 

I meant to ask yesterday, why would it cut so far inland if there is a solid block? I thought a -NAO was supposed to stop these systems from cutting to the lakes.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I meant to ask yesterday, why would it cut so far inland if there is a solid block? I thought a -NAO was supposed to stop these systems from cutting to the lakes.

Just like everything in meteorology, it seems that there’s always one thing that can trump something else, albeit only in very rare cases, and that seems to be happening with that clipper.  
 

I mentioned this a week or two ago, the NAO has not helped us much in the last few years. It either has suppressed systems(yesterdays Virginia snow), and now it’s letting a clipper cut to Ottawa…we can’t seem to win with these NAO blocks.