December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[metagraphica]

Sat image looking good this morning:

[weatherwiz]

Trying to garner trends of precipitation and something like snow cover to influences of CC is nearly impossible to do because of the variability involved. The better metric is trying to determine how CC has influenced the larger scale oscillations, ENSO, Hadley Cell, etc and how weather patterns are behaving now versus earlier in the record books. Now, you can argue the smaller scale phenomena (precipitation, snow cover) is a product of the pattern, however, not every similar pattern is going to produce similar outputs. Not every trough digging into the East during the winter is going to elicit a major winter storm, not every trough digging across the West and progressing into the Plains in late May is going to yield a 5/3/99 or April 0f 2011. 

[dryslot]

12k Nam is 1-3" up here Monday.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr 1” for Kev tomorrow. Winter is saved.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d prob extend that personally a bit to Xmas week. If we don’t have anything banked or imminent, then it would be another shaft job…..we have a chance this week before a little tiny relaxation (if it all), but then there’s clearly a reload for another favorable stretch doing into Xmas week. If we strike out on both periods, then we’re just living in the late 1980s/early 1990s paradigm again. 

Are we expecting Jan and Feb to be pretty hostile?

[NorEastermass128]

Dec 5th snows in the Mid Atlantic. I remember that was a common occurrence in the early 2000s. 

[SouthCoastMA]

The long term trend of "clippers" cutting through NNE and the inability for them to dig south of us getting old fast. And when somethiing does go south of us its usually compressed into the mid atlantic and shredded with no amplication. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d prob extend that personally a bit to Xmas week. If we don’t have anything banked or imminent, then it would be another shaft job…..we have a chance this week before a little tiny relaxation (if it all), but then there’s clearly a reload for another favorable stretch doing into Xmas week. If we strike out on both periods, then we’re just living in the late 1980s/early 1990s paradigm again. 

I was operating from my own conceptualization of how I expected the month to go, but yea....you probably extend it realistically speaking, but I can tell you no one wants to be a mid month with nothing on the ground or imminent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Sat image looking good this morning:

I may send Kevin a Christmas card with this image on the front.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Sat image looking good this morning:

That's just epic. Poor Rev like 5 miles from paydirt

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may send Kevin a Christmas card with this image on the front.

Lol 2 sick minds thinking alike. We could have it blown up to picture size and framed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol 2 sick minds thinking alike. We could have it blown up to picture size and framed 

He'll respond "Thanks, friends".

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was operating from my own conceptualization of how I expected the month to go, but yea....you probably extend it realistically speaking, but I can tell you no one wants to be a mid month with nothing on the ground or imminent.

This is also where patience is required and remembering climo. As I stated earlier, if you have a favorable pattern, you need to cash it. Whether that is early winter, meat of winter, or late winter. If you were to look at average to above average seasons, its almost 100% likely we cashed in during those favorable periods. But I mean, for the most part its like early January into early March where our climo really is. I mean look at Boston...was it 2014-2015? they went into February below average and pulled off what like 100" in 6 weeks?

There other component to this is, I think the term "favorable" pattern is really becoming overplayed. Let's be serious, the batting average on these "favorable" patterns the last several years is so low that it makes Conner Wong's average look HOF worthy. I think there's been way too much stock and emphasis on the EPS these last several winters and using that to make bold statements and claims. Obviously, when looking medium and extended, EPS is your friend...there really isn't any other tool. But I think the EPS has to be taken with less weight in these pattern regimes. Because of the smoothing of the EPS its making patterns probably look better than they really are. They are just smoothing out the chaos and its the chaos in these fast flows which is acting as the inhibitor.   

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's just epic. Poor Rev like 5 miles from paydirt

Imagine having this right before Christmas. I’m the Y in Weymouth.
 

 

[CoastalWx]

Now that was a lawn tractor into anus.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is also where patience is required and remembering climo. As I stated earlier, if you have a favorable pattern, you need to cash it. Whether that is early winter, meat of winter, or late winter. If you were to look at average to above average seasons, its almost 100% likely we cashed in during those favorable periods. But I mean, for the most part its like early January into early March where our climo really is. I mean look at Boston...was it 2014-2015? they went into February below average and pulled off what like 100" in 6 weeks?

There other component to this is, I think the term "favorable" pattern is really becoming overplayed. Let's be serious, the batting average on these "favorable" patterns the last several years is so low that it makes Conner Wong's average look HOF worthy. I think there's been way too much stock and emphasis on the EPS these last several winters and using that to make bold statements and claims. Obviously, when looking medium and extended, EPS is your friend...there really isn't any other tool. But I think the EPS has to be taken with less weight in these pattern regimes. Because of the smoothing of the EPS its making patterns probably look better than they really are. They are just smoothing out the chaos and its the chaos in these fast flows which is acting as the inhibitor.   

This is what I meant. I expected a normal to slightly above normal snowfall season with a pretty active December. If we make to mid month with hardly anything in the bank of imminent, then we will need a big fish at some point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Imagine having this right before Christmas. I’m the Y in Weymouth.
 

 

Extend that north...I took another dong in the rear, too.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that was a lawn tractor into anus.

The M woulda been worse 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I meant. I expected a normal to slightly above normal snowfall season with a pretty active December. If we make to mid month with hardly anything in the bank of imminent, then we will need a big fish at some point.

Yup. There is nothing wrong with several 3-5" type ordeals. And we see plenty of potential for that on guidance. If anyone is just looking for 8-12"+ storms all the type...they're going to be disappointed 99% of the time. I believe BDL is already at average or even slightly above for the season...and its only Dec 5. I don't remember off-hand what BDL's average Dec snow is but I don't think its any more than 5 or 6". Another one of these 2-3" storms for them in the next 26 days and it was an average month.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may send Kevin a Christmas card with this image on the front.

At least BDL got 2.4”

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Up and In FTW

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that was a lawn tractor into anus.

Do you have a top floor? Maybe you couldve seen it from a distance

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Extend that north...I took another dong in the rear, too.

 

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The M woulda been worse 

 

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Do you have a top floor? Maybe you couldve seen it from a distance

 No that was as close to a porking as you can imagine. The end of my street literally had more than I did about 400 yards away. Another mile west had 2-3”. Imagine walking to a friends house down the street leaving your bare yard to their white Christmas. It was a mind f*ck.