December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Could this be another winter where down south somehow does better than us? Starting to feel that way. We clearly are punting this so called great pattern for the first half of the month. Idc if it's early December and we usually don't get anything. When you have a pattern like this you better capitalize. Hoping Xmas time can somehow deliver for once. 

This is a true statement. Doesn't matter if its early December, mid-February, or early March...if the pattern is favorable you need to cash in. 

It's like sports and lets say baseball...its a long season but if you aren't winning the games you need to in April or May, those losses will come back to bite you come late September. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Ray not sure, my mother in-law (91) hot water tank failed (2) days ago, she noticed water yesterday, friend helping me with new tank tomorrow, then clean up of cardboard boxes to dumpster, tomorrow negative, 13th "possible" 

Looks like we are going to hold off until the 13th, so hope to finally meet you!

[mahk_webstah]

WPC also has precipitation for this weekend and early next week. So there is some feeling that there’s going to be at least some light snow in a lot of places.

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully this is the coldest weather of the system. We can still get snow and not have it be 0. You know when it's cold when there is steam emitting from the dog poop. 

This weather is the worst. It’s the inverse of 110 heat index.

Then the only great place to be is a pool….

Now the only great place to be a is a fireplace.

Extremely limiting on daily activities. Even well maintained things, break or fail…

If you like this weather you should move to where the cost of living is sooooo much cheaper than New England.

[jbenedet]

Mods could move this where it needs to go, but this read was extremely informative for our region regarding CC.

 

Another analysis indicating New England is fastest warming region, right along side the arctic.

It also corroborates the observations we’ve had that this warming is accelerating. 
 

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  I was paying more attention to the snow squalls vs how cold this air mass is.  It seems like last night's cold over preformed.  Was that true?   0F here but snowcover must helped.

Maybe a little? But this was modeled to be pretty cold. It had that look of strong CAA early and possibly radiating in the good rad spots before sunrise and it seems that panned out. I’m just glad we got a good pack before it came.

We’ve had recent winters that didn’t even get below zero. Hopefully we don’t get too many of these days. I don’t need to be ripping through 2 bags of pellets every day.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr 1” for Kev tomorrow. Winter is saved.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This weather is the worst. It’s the inverse of 110 heat index.

Then the only great place to be is a pool….

Now the only great place to be a is a fireplace.

Extremely limiting on daily activities. Even well maintained things, break or fail…

If you like this weather you should move to where the cost of living is sooooo much cheaper than New England.

yeah there isn't anything fun about this at all, unless it is actually physically snowing out. The snow on the ground makes the landscape all cool and all but it does nothing to help with 0F temperatures. If its 90 with a HI of 105 in the summer, you can still at least be outside, even if its just sitting in the shade, or in the pool, or pool side. Who really is going outside to "chill" in a lawn chair with a beer at 0f?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr 1” for Kev tomorrow. Winter is saved.

RGEM has been consistent with it. Euro has a little sign of it too. But yeah, NBD overall. The 3k not being enthused is what gives me doubt about it.

[Layman]

My station is claiming a low of 1.9 this morning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Mods could move this where it needs to go, but this read was extremely informative for our region regarding CC.

 

Another analysis indicating New England is fastest warming region, right along side the arctic.

It also corroborates the observations we’ve had that this warming is accelerating. 
 

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

Snowcover isn't declining as quickly as that implies. The past decade has been an awful stretch in general.....look at a snowcover graph from 1988-1992 and it's probably just about as bad.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowcover isn't declining as quickly as that implies. The past decade has been an awful stretch in general.....look at a snowcover graph from 1988-1992 and it's probably just about as bad.

I agree in the far interior. Especially NNE. Warming from climo norms is actually conducive to more snowfall. We’ve seen it recently. Dry is the bigger enemy up there. But I do think in large chunk of SNE/CNE up along coastal NNE this is an important trend.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Mods could move this where it needs to go, but this read was extremely informative for our region regarding CC.

 

Another analysis indicating New England is fastest warming region, right along side the arctic.

It also corroborates the observations we’ve had that this warming is accelerating. 
 

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

Oh shit…must be Friday again

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I agree in the far interior. Especially NNE. Warming from climo norms is actually conducive to more snowfall. We’ve seen it recently. Dry is the bigger enemy up there. But I do think in large chunk of SNE/CNE up along coastal NNE this is an important trend.

I don't think it's 100% due to CC...just leave it at that.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it's 100% due to CC...just leave it at that.

There’s definitely an Enso variable. I mean the storm track has just sucked for us and benefited others.

[CoastalWx]

The only thing you might be able to argue is that perhaps 80 years ago some of these borderline events would’ve been a little more snow on the coast.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr 1” for Kev tomorrow. Winter is saved.

December miracle for CT would be 1-2" for a narrow band .. just whitening up the landscape would do a lot for myself and many weenies on here as we wait for a real storm in this pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Mods could move this where it needs to go, but this read was extremely informative for our region regarding CC.

 

Another analysis indicating New England is fastest warming region, right along side the arctic.

It also corroborates the observations we’ve had that this warming is accelerating. 
 

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

We talked about this a bit yesterday ...so what, 5 pages ago?  anyway, yeah ...most posters involved in that exchange agreed, me merely "suffer" ( depending on subjective perspective ) through a time that is unrepresentative of that longer termed reality. 

I also want to point out... last year (and I think a couple of other years since 2020 for that matter) Eurasia over into Russia/Asia itself, went through perhaps counter-intuitive excessively cold periods - if memory serves, they tended be front winter when they occurred, but I'll have to look.  

It is interesting that despite the global this and that, the empirical/realized data shows that both things are true: The world is both warming in total, while seated within ... there is also gasping cold.  

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr 1” for Kev tomorrow. Winter is saved.

Puff puff pass . 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

December miracle for CT would be 1-2" for a narrow band .. just whitening up the landscape would do a lot for myself and many weenies on here as we wait for a real storm in this pattern.

If we’re hanging out weenies on the HRRR we’ve got problems. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely an Enso variable. I mean the storm track has just sucked for us and benefited others.

Yea, not denying GW....but there are other factors independent of the warming that are conspiring against us.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only thing you might be able to argue is that perhaps 80 years ago some of these borderline events would’ve been a little more snow on the coast.

I may have added a new emoji

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only thing you might be able to argue is that perhaps 80 years ago some of these borderline events would’ve been a little more snow on the coast.

Yes, and I have also grown more open to the idea some of the increased tendency towards a cool ENSO paradigm and associated MC forcing may be related to CC, but what I do know is that  our current snow deficit is not 100% attributable to GW/CC.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we’re hanging out weenies on the HRRR we’ve got problems. 

We've got 99 weenies and the HRRR is one .. Can't ignore the signal for CT, will 1-2" happen in a band that wide, probably not, but I can see a widespread slick coating up to an inch in spots.. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely an Enso variable. I mean the storm track has just sucked for us and benefited others.

The Great Lakes and N plains have actually seen an increase in snow cover in the last 40-50 years.

We’ve def been on the ugly side the last decade and CC enhances it…but there’s always a natural variability aspect to it too. I know I’ve made it a point to show that the warmest anomalies in North America outside of the arctic over the past decade were right here into SE Canada. 

[mreaves]

I think KMPV might have hit a record low for 12/05.  NOWData has it at -7° in 1971 and it got down to -8° this morning.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we make it to mid-month without anything substantial, then I'd worry.

I’d prob extend that personally a bit to Xmas week. If we don’t have anything banked or imminent, then it would be another shaft job…..we have a chance this week before a little tiny relaxation (if it all), but then there’s clearly a reload for another favorable stretch doing into Xmas week. If we strike out on both periods, then we’re just living in the late 1980s/early 1990s paradigm again.