December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wait, a fraudulent Norlun event, followed by dying clippers traversing 500 miles north of us doesn’t move the needle for you?

I'm going to stare at a series of terminally ill looking vorts and hope one digs enough to give me an inch.

[dryslot]

The euro was god awful on the 12/1 system, There's a lot of vorticity in the flow going forward here over the next 15 days, Won't take much to get to amplify one of these but its not going to dong slap you from afar so, We watch, We wait.

[ineedsnow]

The Nam looks like it would of had a bit of snow for Sunday night / Monday

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is drunk Sunday night. Nothing really shows that.

12z NAM (granted in clown range for that model) trying to show it if you went out another couple panels. 06z Euro was closer too but no cigar. Maybe we can trend into a 1-3” type deal. We’re not used to positive trends but they used to happen. 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if the GFS is a bit more aggressive Sunday night because its a tad sharper with that shortwave and perhaps acquiring a bit more in the way of moisture off the Lakes?

[Layman]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The euro was god awful on the 12/1 system, There's a lot of vorticity in the flow going forward here over the next 15 days, Won't take much to get to amplify one of these but its not going to dong slap you from afar so, We watch, We wait.

Does this "dong slap" have quantifiable parameters to it?  Perhaps based on depth, inches, pressure or intensity?  All the above?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Layman said:

Does this "dong slap" have quantifiable parameters to it?  Perhaps based on depth, inches, pressure or intensity?  All the above?

We always prefer a system with some girth to it.

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So much for the snow melting. Got about an inch the other day and it hasn't even melted off the wood in the middle of the field. 

 

And we had forecasts worried about sun angle in December a couple days ago. 
 

I also still have ice on the trees. 

[dryslot]

Can't we just put to bed the sun angle garbage? It is such a misnomer.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

And we had forecasts worried about sun angle in December a couple days ago. 
 

I also still have ice on the trees. 

Honestly, where do some of these METS(NWS/TV etc) get their flawed ideas/knowledge from, that they are misleading the general public with.  It’s pathetic actually. 

[Ginx snewx]

Again CNE to Ray and Central Mass,good chance of a brief heavy heavy squall along the Arctic Boundary. This is in 40/70s hood

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Can't we just put to bed the sun angle garbage? It is such a misnomer.

Exactly.  But we have pro METS talking about sun angle and warm ground. Laughable. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Richmond will have more snow season to date than Methuen MA. by later tomorrow. 

And Miami will have the same as Weymouth and Seymour

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM (granted in clown range for that model) trying to show it if you went out another couple panels. 06z Euro was closer too but no cigar. Maybe we can trend into a 1-3” type deal. We’re not used to positive trends but they used to happen. 

We had a positive trend for some on Tuesday, when the colder air held tough and over performed in a lot of inland area. It was a small win in that regard. So maybe we can keep the trend going…?  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Honestly, where do some of these METS(NWS/TV etc) get their flawed ideas/knowledge from, that they are misleading the general public with.  It’s pathetic actually. 

I honestly wonder if the last few winters are playing into it. We’ve had so much marginal temps and warmth since 2022. Last year was colder but we still had marginal temps in several storms. I think it will take a few bigger events to clear out the stench/hangover. 
 

Also to be fair, the sfc temps looked pretty warm last event…but they busted much colder. I would prefer they just say the temps are marginal as the reason and not talk about December sun angles. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And Miami will have the same as Weymouth and Seymour

I like the active look though going forward as dryslot mentioned…I think there will be quite a few chances coming up, just gotta sit tight for a bit longer. 

[weatherwiz]

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Boobs 4 days?

I wish. Lol

Xmas party with a different sphere 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

All of us know this…how come NWS and TV METS can’t seem to grasp it?  And in December of all months lol. 

[dryslot]

Squalls already developing coming out of the mountains up here.

[weatherwiz]

Actually...the only time sun angle matters is...summer. Think about going to the southern latitudes during the summer. It could be be just as hot/humid here but it feels WAY more intense at the southern latitudes with the sun directly over your noggin. When my girlfriend and I were on our cruise to Bimini in July...that was absolutely intense stuff. The nearly overhead sun angle is a killer 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trended a bit sharper/further south over New England on 6z GFS/Euro.. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two. 

What’s also interesting about that is that the ensemble derived PNA index progs from all the three majors have +1 to +1.5 burst. It’s really the operational runs that have not been nesting an event in that period of time. It makes me wonder if something might materialize in there with shorter notice - experimental. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All of us know this…how come NWS and TV METS can’t seem to grasp it?  And in December of all months lol. 

yeah IDK...I don't get it...there is so much out there you see stated that is either incorrectly stated or just flat out wrong. 

[powderfreak]

Crushing snow.

Mansfield stake depth at #1 all-time (since 1954) for the date at 47”.

 

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually...the only time sun angle matters is...summer. Think about going to the southern latitudes during the summer. It could be be just as hot/humid here but it feels WAY more intense at the southern latitudes with the sun directly over your noggin. When my girlfriend and I were on our cruise to Bimini in July...that was absolutely intense stuff. The nearly overhead sun angle is a killer 

Mmm it matters in shoulder seasons. 

March bombs for ex definitely benefit from a diabatic heat flux

[ma blizzard]

RGEM has been consistently showing C-1" from the norlunish feature on Saturday .. not much but would be nice for the areas that were shutout on Tuesday 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

RGEM has been consistently showing C-1" from the norlunish feature on Saturday .. not much but would be nice for the areas that were shutout on Tuesday 

Icon and RGEM meh with Sunday night into Monday though

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I honestly wonder if the last few winters are playing into it. We’ve had so much marginal temps and warmth since 2022. Last year was colder but we still had marginal temps in several storms. I think it will take a few bigger events to clear out the stench/hangover. 
 

Also to be fair, the sfc temps looked pretty warm last event…but they busted much colder. I would prefer they just say the temps are marginal as the reason and not talk about December sun angles. 

I initially though Wankum was just lazy and dumbing things down, but the more I listen, the more I feel he really believes that. He is consistently emphatic about it.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wish. Lol

Xmas party with a different sphere 

Grab a few at the party.  What could go wrong?