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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

We’ll make sure the proper rituals are done to maximize our chances.      If it doesn’t work, we’ll just have to sacrifice someone 

dendrite
dendrite

Is that a pride front?

dryslot
dryslot

NO

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it would if it wasn’t so marginal in like 100+ millibar layer. I suppose that at the height it could flip to a 33F paste if it’s really really pounding.  I just go back in saying bring me those runs from yesterday.

 

So I'll give you this, where you're located, you are much closer to the ocean and it's influence at this point of the year and it still makes things much harder to get the cold air filtered down unless the storm was very strong and created its own cold air down to the surface. With that said, I still think there's a good shot that anyone I-84 and north and west has a good shot of at least staying wintry with the precipitation. 

Lord knows which model is right, but they're starting to come together in the sense of where the precipitation will be liquid and where it will be frozen. I just don't believe that the GFS is correct as I think it's too far north. By tomorrow afternoon or evening I think we'll have a clearer picture. As we all know, nothing's ever written in stone until a few days out. This is the way it's been over the last several years. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I'll give you this, where you're located, you are much closer to the ocean and it's influence at this point of the year and it still makes things much harder to get the cold air filtered down unless the storm was very strong and created its own cold air down to the surface. With that said, I still think there's a good shot that anyone I-84 and north and west has a good shot of at least staying wintry with the precipitation. 

Lord knows which model is right, but they're starting to come together in the sense of where the precipitation will be liquid and where it will be frozen. I just don't believe that the GFS is correct as I think it's too far north. By tomorrow afternoon or evening I think we'll have a clearer picture. As we all know, nothing's ever written in stone until a few days out. This is the way it's been over the last several years. 

My comment was where Steve is and nothing to do with here. I’ve been saying for days this is not for me. Scooter knows, especially for his locale.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday. 

That parent short wave is still pretty far north and the one ahead of it just helps get things going.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss.

GFS is a lot more stacked than other guidance (i.e not as sloped with the pressure fields)....it's really going crazy with the main vort focusing and capturing the system....so we're seeing these tucked solutions with crazy QPF and rates....but also warmer for most of our area. 

I'm actually not sure which one to buy right now....I could be convinced either way. Part of me thinks GFS is a little overdone on this given the synoptics, but it's not impossible to see that solution. 

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