December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z? 6z was liquid to Laconia. What a model. 

Yeah that thing has been all over the place. 

[CoastalWx]

BTW, if any of you use pivotal… The new beta site is way more friendly, especially mobile. Much more easier to use and not clunky like the legacy version.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z? 6z was liquid to Laconia. What a model. 

Yep, not even close to 06z run...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Somewhat of an elevation event . At least in that depiction 

I'd rather be in Methuen than Tolland.

[mahk_webstah]

Getting quite a heavy snow shower here and the ground is coated. Windy so it looks pretty great outside.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather be in Methuen than Tolland.

Not me . This has elevation written on it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Getting quite a heavy snow shower here and the ground is coated. Windy so it looks pretty great outside.

Stay safe, friend.

[CoastalWx]

Fight fight fight!

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it would if it wasn’t so marginal in like 100+ millibar layer. I suppose that at the height it could flip to a 33F paste if it’s really really pounding.  I just go back in saying bring me those runs from yesterday.

 

So I'll give you this, where you're located, you are much closer to the ocean and it's influence at this point of the year and it still makes things much harder to get the cold air filtered down unless the storm was very strong and created its own cold air down to the surface. With that said, I still think there's a good shot that anyone I-84 and north and west has a good shot of at least staying wintry with the precipitation. 

Lord knows which model is right, but they're starting to come together in the sense of where the precipitation will be liquid and where it will be frozen. I just don't believe that the GFS is correct as I think it's too far north. By tomorrow afternoon or evening I think we'll have a clearer picture. As we all know, nothing's ever written in stone until a few days out. This is the way it's been over the last several years. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I'll give you this, where you're located, you are much closer to the ocean and it's influence at this point of the year and it still makes things much harder to get the cold air filtered down unless the storm was very strong and created its own cold air down to the surface. With that said, I still think there's a good shot that anyone I-84 and north and west has a good shot of at least staying wintry with the precipitation. 

Lord knows which model is right, but they're starting to come together in the sense of where the precipitation will be liquid and where it will be frozen. I just don't believe that the GFS is correct as I think it's too far north. By tomorrow afternoon or evening I think we'll have a clearer picture. As we all know, nothing's ever written in stone until a few days out. This is the way it's been over the last several years. 

My comment was where Steve is and nothing to do with here. I’ve been saying for days this is not for me. Scooter knows, especially for his locale.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looks toasty.

[CoastalWx]

Oof it’s warm

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS bringing warmth pretty far up n in

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oof it’s warm

I know that that one model seems to be more warm biased and the other colder. Just forgetting which is which. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I know that that one model seems to be more warm biased and the other colder. Just forgetting which is which. 

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pivotal clown still has my area mostly snow, but its precarious at best.

 

Lots of sleet in there methinks

[CoastalWx]

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pivotal clown still has my area mostly snow, but its precarious at best.

 

Lots of sleet in there methinks

Looked like it close to paste there. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

Congrats Dendrite?  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

Over who gets more rain?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oof it’s warm

Low is tucked right into Rhode Island. Congrats southern VT and SW NH. Paste job there.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday. 

That parent short wave is still pretty far north and the one ahead of it just helps get things going.

[dryslot]

12-18", We can always adjust upwards if needed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

Toss.

[dendrite]

Feels like bizzaro world with the GFS having a consistent amped up low while the Euro is the SE outlier. After decades of the opposite I don’t know how to feel about this. 

[radarman]

Euro will be mocked over this all winter.  We're getting revenge for the Ryder Cup.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss.

GFS is a lot more stacked than other guidance (i.e not as sloped with the pressure fields)....it's really going crazy with the main vort focusing and capturing the system....so we're seeing these tucked solutions with crazy QPF and rates....but also warmer for most of our area. 

I'm actually not sure which one to buy right now....I could be convinced either way. Part of me thinks GFS is a little overdone on this given the synoptics, but it's not impossible to see that solution. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

That warm tongue is bigger than Gene Simmons'

[HoarfrostHubb]

My daughter will be able to go sledding at her school in S VT though. Looks solid enough there