December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z? 6z was liquid to Laconia. What a model. 

Yeah that thing has been all over the place. 

[CoastalWx]

BTW, if any of you use pivotal… The new beta site is way more friendly, especially mobile. Much more easier to use and not clunky like the legacy version.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z? 6z was liquid to Laconia. What a model. 

Yep, not even close to 06z run...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Somewhat of an elevation event . At least in that depiction 

I'd rather be in Methuen than Tolland.

[mahk_webstah]

Getting quite a heavy snow shower here and the ground is coated. Windy so it looks pretty great outside.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather be in Methuen than Tolland.

Not me . This has elevation written on it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Getting quite a heavy snow shower here and the ground is coated. Windy so it looks pretty great outside.

Stay safe, friend.

[CoastalWx]

Fight fight fight!

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it would if it wasn’t so marginal in like 100+ millibar layer. I suppose that at the height it could flip to a 33F paste if it’s really really pounding.  I just go back in saying bring me those runs from yesterday.

 

So I'll give you this, where you're located, you are much closer to the ocean and it's influence at this point of the year and it still makes things much harder to get the cold air filtered down unless the storm was very strong and created its own cold air down to the surface. With that said, I still think there's a good shot that anyone I-84 and north and west has a good shot of at least staying wintry with the precipitation. 

Lord knows which model is right, but they're starting to come together in the sense of where the precipitation will be liquid and where it will be frozen. I just don't believe that the GFS is correct as I think it's too far north. By tomorrow afternoon or evening I think we'll have a clearer picture. As we all know, nothing's ever written in stone until a few days out. This is the way it's been over the last several years. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I'll give you this, where you're located, you are much closer to the ocean and it's influence at this point of the year and it still makes things much harder to get the cold air filtered down unless the storm was very strong and created its own cold air down to the surface. With that said, I still think there's a good shot that anyone I-84 and north and west has a good shot of at least staying wintry with the precipitation. 

Lord knows which model is right, but they're starting to come together in the sense of where the precipitation will be liquid and where it will be frozen. I just don't believe that the GFS is correct as I think it's too far north. By tomorrow afternoon or evening I think we'll have a clearer picture. As we all know, nothing's ever written in stone until a few days out. This is the way it's been over the last several years. 

My comment was where Steve is and nothing to do with here. I’ve been saying for days this is not for me. Scooter knows, especially for his locale.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looks toasty.

[CoastalWx]

Oof it’s warm

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS bringing warmth pretty far up n in

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oof it’s warm

I know that that one model seems to be more warm biased and the other colder. Just forgetting which is which. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I know that that one model seems to be more warm biased and the other colder. Just forgetting which is which. 

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pivotal clown still has my area mostly snow, but its precarious at best.

 

Lots of sleet in there methinks

[CoastalWx]

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pivotal clown still has my area mostly snow, but its precarious at best.

 

Lots of sleet in there methinks

Looked like it close to paste there. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

Congrats Dendrite?  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday.