December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Saturday 

At the earliest.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

At the earliest.

Sunday at the earliest. I don't bother looking at model runs until within 48 hours...anything outside of that is sort of like looking through the SI Swimsuit issue and believing one of the swimsuit models is stopping by for dinner..

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At the earliest.

It’s best to thread these when it’s obviously going to affect only one region, or there are multiple threats. For now everyone has a chance so we can keep it here. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s best to thread these when it’s obviously going to affect only one region, or there are multiple threats. For now everyone has a chance so we can keep it here. 

There’s quite a few in here that are superstitious lol, But no reason for a thread that’s 5 +days out.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There’s quite a few in here that are superstitious lol, But no reason for a thread that’s 5 +days out.

Hard pass on a thread. Storms still 5-6 days away 

[tavwtby]

Seems every time a threat thread was made in the last few years, minus a couple, they fizzled or didn't pan out... my opinion is within 48hr if we're still in alignment model wise, it'd be fairly safe to start a thread...also, looks like some decent mid level magic may happen somewhere in SNE if it plays out as currently modeled, quick hitter though too, so be hard to get double digits unless rates are good and growth is good.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z euro has Rays approval.

Wouldn’t jump the gun there. -1 at 2000’ above us again for the 4th season. I’ve seen this before despite the pretty snow colors. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wouldn’t jump the gun there. -1 at 2000’ above us again for the 4th season. I’ve seen this before despite the pretty snow colors. 

I mean, it wouldn’t be pretty but the euro would work here. I’d roll the dice with that look on 12/2, and so would you.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a bit of a red flag but I’ve seen the AI totally out to lunch before and it has been slowly but surely ticking NW the last few runs. 

Watch the vort track…that usually tells you. It’s currently tracking from like central PA into LI/RI. That’s not really a big suppressed look to me. It can become suppressed if the vort/energy gets ground up too much but it’s still pretty defined in PA. 

A sign if intelligence is being able to change your mind.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, it wouldn’t be pretty but the euro would work here. I’d roll the dice with that look on 12/2, and so would you.

Nope, I’m not there. I guess that’s better on 12/2 vs 2/2, but I’ve seen this movie before. Might be a little better for you more inland. 33 snow vs 34 snow. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a bit of a red flag but I’ve seen the AI totally out to lunch before and it has been slowly but surely ticking NW the last few runs. 

Watch the vort track…that usually tells you. It’s currently tracking from like central PA into LI/RI. That’s not really a big suppressed look to me. It can become suppressed if the vort/energy gets ground up too much but it’s still pretty defined in PA. 

Yes... I agree, the look of vort max and its progged track is not one screaming suppression?  At least not yet.  Its trend (vort max) moving forward is something to watch closely over the next few runs.  Nice to see a post focusing on a forecasting issue.

[weathafella]

Widespread snow cover over the northern USA coming.  We’re looking at 4-8/6-10 here Saturday and New England similar mid week.  I’ll miss the New England event but won’t miss the fun here Saturday.  Hopefully more in the pipeline next weekend and beyond.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Yes... I agree, the look of vort max and its progged track is not one screaming suppression?  At least not yet.  Its trend (vort max) moving forward is something to watch closely over the next few runs.  Nice to see a post focusing on a forecasting issue.

It’s a sheared our tilted system, but we’ve seen this before. Doesn’t scream suppression verbatim. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope, I’m not there. I guess that’s better on 12/2 vs 2/2, but I’ve seen this movie before. Might be a little better for you more inland. 33 snow vs 34 snow. 

Meh. After the last 5 years, it would be nice to even be in the game. It’s obviously a flawed setup, but everything is now 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh. After the last 5 years, it would be nice to even be in the game. It’s obviously a flawed setup, but everything is now 

We wait until we see the whites of the weenies.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We wait until we see the whites of the weenies.

I don’t disagree. I won’t believe it until it’s happening. But all we can do is look at modeling today. And some do give us snow. All you can say 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, it wouldn’t be pretty but the euro would work here. I’d roll the dice with that look on 12/2, and so would you.

Sell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

If I had the time and energy these days I’d def start planning a chase up to your neck of the woods.


.

Chase this? Jesus, sign of the times...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good spot right now for a lot of SNE imho. Plenty of time to tick north with a retreating high. 

This.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sell.

I don’t believe the euro verbatim either, but that is what it currently shows.

[Torch Tiger]

Time to fire up a thread!  Its a lock!

[Damage In Tolland]

Initial early look at a
predominantly wintry event for the interior and either a mainly
plain rain or gloppy/sloppy wet snow-to-rain scenario for the RI/MA
coastal plain still seems a reasonable first guess. The above-stated
uncertainties are too great to get into rain or snow accumulations
as of yet, but if the above p-type scenario holds, accumulations
based on positive snow-depth-change methodologies probably would
perform reasonably well.

[kdxken]