December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mahk_webstah]

Hesitancy at GYX but EPS doesn’t look that far off the coast.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Goalposts narrowed overnight. Models converging on storm impacting the area. 
Still a lot to parse out. Someone is gonna cash in.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Pics?

6z even better 

[ORH_wxman]

Not a whole lot to say other than storm is definitely more probable than it looked 24 hours ago. Reasonable model agreement for 5.5-6 days out now. 
 

The cold front that comes through Sunday night is our antecedent airmass. So you’ll want it to trend stronger/south if you want the storm to come in colder on subsequent runs. Ideally you’d get both the cold front stronger and the shortwave stronger from the storm…which would give you a colder antecedent airmass but a juicier storm running into it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some pingers seem likely. 

[Lava Rock]

6z even better 

Nice snow hole.

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[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a whole lot to say other than storm is definitely more probable than it looked 24 hours ago. Reasonable model agreement for 5.5-6 days out now. 
 

The cold front that comes through Sunday night is our antecedent airmass. So you’ll want it to trend stronger/south if you want the storm to come in colder on subsequent runs. Ideally you’d get both the cold front stronger and the shortwave stronger from the storm…which would give you a colder antecedent airmass but a juicier storm running into it. 

Yeah, lead wave plays a pivotal role in sensible outcome. Pointed that out yesterday. Sort of torn on stronger trailing wave as that would likely introduce more warm sit intrusion with retreating high. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

We baste today. See what transpires on model runs. Barring anything major, it looks like a good start to MET winter for some coming.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a whole lot to say other than storm is definitely more probable than it looked 24 hours ago. Reasonable model agreement for 5.5-6 days out now. 
 

The cold front that comes through Sunday night is our antecedent airmass. So you’ll want it to trend stronger/south if you want the storm to come in colder on subsequent runs. Ideally you’d get both the cold front stronger and the shortwave stronger from the storm…which would give you a colder antecedent airmass but a juicier storm running into it. 

Let's Jerry antecedent days all month!

[Ginx snewx]

I would hit this hard. 6Z Euro with more to fall 

[Ginx snewx]

Classic setup for a SNE snowstorm 

[Damage In Tolland]

Early estimates seem like a 4-8 or 5-10” type storm lollis to 12

[moneypitmike]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6z even better 

LOL at Maine.

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would hit this hard. 6Z Euro with more to fall 

 

[Lava Rock]

LOL at Maine.

0" for me. Sweet.

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[HoarfrostHubb]

Wunderground’s Franken-model likes it

 

[qg_omega]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

way more likely that the mid-week system is a POS than something amped and rainy IMO

Ok

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Classic setup for a SNE snowstorm 

You’d like to see the low north of New Foundland a little south to hold in the high from retreating as much. It would give us more wiggle room on the track.

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS looks pretty nice. Still a ways to go though. 
 

 

[Modfan2]

Would like to see model consistency inside of 5 days; if we still see similar runs come Saturday I would think it’s game on!

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS looks pretty nice. Still a ways to go though. 
 

 

And some solid storms in there too…

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Would like to see model consistency inside of 5 days; if we still see similar runs come Saturday I would think it’s game on!

The storm is Tuesday . Comes in predawn . Today is 5 days 

[Kitz Craver]

Happy Thanksgiving all! What’s better than tracking a storm to kick off the holiday season, hope we can all cash in to some degree!

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The storm is Tuesday . Comes in predawn . Today is 5 days 

Ya seems these come in a bit earlier

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The storm is Tuesday . Comes in predawn . Today is 5 days 

Might start a bit later than that.  I’m thinking noon/ish for a lot of folks (as currently modeled).  But nobody knows…

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Might start a bit later than that.  I’m thinking noon/ish for a lot of folks (as currently modeled).  But nobody knows…

If it pans out, I like the idea that it starts during the day(visual in daylight is always nice), then goes into the night.  But beggars can’t be choosers…. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya seems these come in a bit earlier

I think you’re thinking of SWFE’s…those tend to come in quicker.   As depicted, this is a coastal now, so I don’t know if the same thing applies? 

[Kitz Craver]

Where is Runaway? Everything ok with him?

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Nice snow hole.

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Exactly where we want it now  That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think you’re thinking of SWFE’s…those tend to come in quicker.   As depicted, this is a coastal now, so I don’t know if the same thing applies? 

Peeking at the latest gfs…

H7 doesn’t close off or really even back…SW flow and plenty of WAA up there until the trof axis passes. H85 does. Kinda has that front ender look initially with closed off low levels. If you look at H85 it looks like the primary wants to cut west and then it jumps quickly eastward to our south.