December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Snowlover11]

32F, This morning.

Merry Christmas!

 

[BxEngine]

Merry christmas ya filthy animals. 

[SACRUS]

Merry Christmas

39 / 27 on this Christmas morning - cloudy.  Warmest day of the next week (maybe Monday ties it).  Snow/mix /sleet storm tomorrow night into Saturday. A bit tempered with the cold as Bluewave had mentioned but im sure we'll teeter day to day forecasts.  Overall cold with the coldest 12/30 - 1/2.  Moderation beyond there to a warmer / near normal overall.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 69 (1964)
NYC: 66 (2015)
LGA: 64 (2015)
JFK: 64 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1980)
NYC: -1 (1980)
LGA: -1 (1980)
JFK: 2 (1983)

 

Historical:

1776: Thomas Jefferson noted that the first winter snow fell on December 20th, but did not last on the ground one day. Temperatures dropped to 30 degrees or colder on Christmas Day. That night, 22 inches of snow fell. From the 25th of December until March 6, 10 snow covered the ground, and some of them were deep. The first rain came on the 9th of March. In Frederick County, two feet of snow was recorded.

1872: Since records began back in 1887, Columbia, South Carolina, only a trace of snow has been reported on Christmas Day. Before records, 13-hour sleet, and snowstorm occurred in Columbia and surrounding areas. Credit goes to Cary Mock, a USC geography professor who specializes in historical weather research.

1909: A Christmas storm on December 24th through December 25th 12.3 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1947: The Great NY Snow Storm that started on Christmas Day in 1947. The Great NY December 25-26 snowstorm of 26.4 inchesof Snow

1961: On December 24th through December 25th 10.0 plus inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1966 - A white Christmas was enjoyed by residents from North Carolina to New England in the wake of a major snowstorm. Even coastal Virginia was white. (David Ludlum)

1969: A major snowstorm struck the Mid-Atlantic into the northeast. Montpelier, VT recorded 39 inches of snow. 29.8 inches of snow fell in Burlington, VT, which was a single storm record for the state. Across the mid-Atlantic, Roanoke, VA reported 14.6 inches, Dulles Airport northwest of Washington, DC had 6 inches and National Airport reported 4.3 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )

1980 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record in the northeastern U.S. Temperatures as cold as 36 degrees below zero were reported in New York State, and as the sharp cold front swept southeastward the temperature at Boston MA plunged from 34 degrees to seven degrees below zero during the day. (David Ludlum)

1983 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record for the central and eastern U.S. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and thirty-four of those cities reported all-time records for the month of December. The temperature plunged to one degree below zero at Huntsville AL, and dipped to 14 degrees at Galveston TX. Snow covered the ground from the Pacific Northwest through much of the Great Plains Region to the Northern Appalachains. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Residents of Tucson, AZ, awoke to a white Christmas for the first time in forty-seven years of records, as a winter storm blanketed the area with up to four inches of snow. While heavy rain inundated Arkansas, freezing rain was reported from northwest Texas to southwestern Missouri, with an inch of ice reported at Harrison AR. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second day in a row McAllen TX was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV, reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC, and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach FL equalled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: A Christmas storm on December 25th 11.0 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area the greatest on record for Christmas Day. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1996: Record Christmas cold. Missoula, MT got 14.6 inches of snow for the 24-hour period ending 3 p.m. on Christmas Day, the second highest one-day snowfall in the area since 1936. The snowfall was memorable as it broke the record for the most snow ever in any December with a week to go. Minneapolis set a record low for the date of -9, breaking the 1933 record of -6 and making it the coldest Christmas since records began over 100 years before. In Bismarck, ND, the mercury dipped to -10, breaking the 1892 record of -8. The temperature fell to -37 Wednesday in International Falls, MN. St. Cloud MN tied their record with -25 degrees and Glasgow MT set a record with -36 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2001: Buffalo, NY was buried under 25.2 inches of snow in 24 the city's third greatest 24 hour snowfall on record. This record was exceeded only two days later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )

 

2002: A major snowstorm moved up the east coast on Christmas Day, 2002. Widespread snowfalls of a foot or more occurred across much of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, with amounts as high as 30 inches reported over the northwest slopes of the Catskills.

2003 - Heavy rains affected areas of southern California that were just recently ravaged by wildfires in October. The downpour produced flash flooding that resulted in mudslides, taking the lives of 15 people at area campgrounds in San Bernardino (AFP).

2004 - Snow fell on Christmas Day in Deep South Texas. Snow totaled 4.4 inches in Corpus Christi, making it the second White Christmas ever. Farther north, Victoria had their first white Christmas on record when 12.5 inches of snow fell.

2006 - Severe thunderstorms produced four tornadoes in Florida. Columbia, Pasco, Lake and Volusia counties were hardest-hit, including the Daytona Beach area. A tornado generated considerable damage on the campus of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, delaying the start of the spring semester (Orlando Business Journal).

2010 - Up to 32 inches of snow and blizzard conditions affected parts of the eastern U.S. on December 25th�27th. A state of emergency was declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maine. In New York City, up to 24.5 inches of snow fell, effectively shutting down rail lines, major airports, and bus services. Thousands of flights were cancelled and stranded subway riders were forced to spend a night in unheated train cars. One person was reported killed in Maine due to the weather conditions. (NCDC)

[WX-PA]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 69 (1964)
NYC: 66 (2015)
LGA: 64 (2015)
JFK: 64 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1980)
NYC: -1 (1980)
LGA: -1 (1980)
JFK: 2 (1983)

 

Historical:

1776: Thomas Jefferson noted that the first winter snow fell on December 20th, but did not last on the ground one day. Temperatures dropped to 30 degrees or colder on Christmas Day. That night, 22 inches of snow fell. From the 25th of December until March 6, 10 snow covered the ground, and some of them were deep. The first rain came on the 9th of March. In Frederick County, two feet of snow was recorded.

1872: Since records began back in 1887, Columbia, South Carolina, only a trace of snow has been reported on Christmas Day. Before records, 13-hour sleet, and snowstorm occurred in Columbia and surrounding areas. Credit goes to Cary Mock, a USC geography professor who specializes in historical weather research.

1909: A Christmas storm on December 24th through December 25th 12.3 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1947: The Great NY Snow Storm that started on Christmas Day in 1947. The Great NY December 25-26 snowstorm of 26.4 inchesof Snow

1961: On December 24th through December 25th 10.0 plus inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1966 - A white Christmas was enjoyed by residents from North Carolina to New England in the wake of a major snowstorm. Even coastal Virginia was white. (David Ludlum)

1969: A major snowstorm struck the Mid-Atlantic into the northeast. Montpelier, VT recorded 39 inches of snow. 29.8 inches of snow fell in Burlington, VT, which was a single storm record for the state. Across the mid-Atlantic, Roanoke, VA reported 14.6 inches, Dulles Airport northwest of Washington, DC had 6 inches and National Airport reported 4.3 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )

1980 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record in the northeastern U.S. Temperatures as cold as 36 degrees below zero were reported in New York State, and as the sharp cold front swept southeastward the temperature at Boston MA plunged from 34 degrees to seven degrees below zero during the day. (David Ludlum)

1983 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record for the central and eastern U.S. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and thirty-four of those cities reported all-time records for the month of December. The temperature plunged to one degree below zero at Huntsville AL, and dipped to 14 degrees at Galveston TX. Snow covered the ground from the Pacific Northwest through much of the Great Plains Region to the Northern Appalachains. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Residents of Tucson, AZ, awoke to a white Christmas for the first time in forty-seven years of records, as a winter storm blanketed the area with up to four inches of snow. While heavy rain inundated Arkansas, freezing rain was reported from northwest Texas to southwestern Missouri, with an inch of ice reported at Harrison AR. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second day in a row McAllen TX was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV, reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC, and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach FL equalled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: A Christmas storm on December 25th 11.0 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area the greatest on record for Christmas Day. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1996: Record Christmas cold. Missoula, MT got 14.6 inches of snow for the 24-hour period ending 3 p.m. on Christmas Day, the second highest one-day snowfall in the area since 1936. The snowfall was memorable as it broke the record for the most snow ever in any December with a week to go. Minneapolis set a record low for the date of -9, breaking the 1933 record of -6 and making it the coldest Christmas since records began over 100 years before. In Bismarck, ND, the mercury dipped to -10, breaking the 1892 record of -8. The temperature fell to -37 Wednesday in International Falls, MN. St. Cloud MN tied their record with -25 degrees and Glasgow MT set a record with -36 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2001: Buffalo, NY was buried under 25.2 inches of snow in 24 the city's third greatest 24 hour snowfall on record. This record was exceeded only two days later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )

 

2002: A major snowstorm moved up the east coast on Christmas Day, 2002. Widespread snowfalls of a foot or more occurred across much of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, with amounts as high as 30 inches reported over the northwest slopes of the Catskills.

2003 - Heavy rains affected areas of southern California that were just recently ravaged by wildfires in October. The downpour produced flash flooding that resulted in mudslides, taking the lives of 15 people at area campgrounds in San Bernardino (AFP).

2004 - Snow fell on Christmas Day in Deep South Texas. Snow totaled 4.4 inches in Corpus Christi, making it the second White Christmas ever. Farther north, Victoria had their first white Christmas on record when 12.5 inches of snow fell.

2006 - Severe thunderstorms produced four tornadoes in Florida. Columbia, Pasco, Lake and Volusia counties were hardest-hit, including the Daytona Beach area. A tornado generated considerable damage on the campus of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, delaying the start of the spring semester (Orlando Business Journal).

2010 - Up to 32 inches of snow and blizzard conditions affected parts of the eastern U.S. on December 25th�27th. A state of emergency was declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maine. In New York City, up to 24.5 inches of snow fell, effectively shutting down rail lines, major airports, and bus services. Thousands of flights were cancelled and stranded subway riders were forced to spend a night in unheated train cars. One person was reported killed in Maine due to the weather conditions. (NCDC)

66,69,80,83,2002 and 2010.great memories!!

[SACRUS]

[MJO812]

Gfs has snow on NYD

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has snow on NYD

These northern stream storms or Colarado lows bring light to moderate snowfalls for our area. If the subtropical jet starts getting more active and we start getting some more arctic chill in here it could get far more interesting. I think there's better than a 50% chance that will happen eventually.

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Very toasty Christmas overall, record breaking warmth southwest and central 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Next Friday couple be a redo of tomorrow night. Definitely has potential from that wave coming down with the arctic front!

[Krs4Lfe]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has snow on NYD

That model appears to be on an island right now in regards to that idea. But what is good to see is that there isn’t much of a warmup after Christmas aside from Monday-Tuesday. Miraculous how warm CONUS has been but we evaded most of it. Looks like the cold reloads after the new year. Models backed off on that a bit idea but I think it’s just noise for now 

[Roger Smith]

What Friday commute? Santa going back to North Pole? 

[bluewave]

Very impressive gradient in the Dakotas. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see increasing clouds. Snow will arrive during the late afternoon or evening and continue overnight. The snow could fall moderately to even heavily for a time. Sleet or freezing rain could mix in toward the end of the storm in parts of the region. A general 4"-8" snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area.

Through 18z, a 4"-8" snowfall in and around New York City remains the baseline scenario. The NBM (19z: 8.0") and 76.8% of the EPS/GEFS ensemble members show 4.0" or more snow for New York City while 8.5% show 2" or less. The RRFS A, the NAM's successor, which had been a southern outlier yesterday has stabilized today with snowfall focused on the New York City area and Hudson Valley. Both the 18z RGEM and GFS also focused the snowfall in the consensus area. The 18z NAM is a northern outlier that is largely on its own. Almost always, the skillful models fare better than the NAM when the NAM is largely on its own.

Areas to the south and west of New York City will see a larger share of precipitation fall as sleet and/or freezing rain. As a result from central New Jersey southward, snow accumulations will be noticeably lower. Philadelphia could pick up a coating to 2" of mainly sleet.

The storm will be followed by a chilly weekend. A storm cutting to the Great Lakes could bring some rain and milder weather on Monday before cold air returns to close out December. The closing days of December will likely be colder than normal.

December 2025 will very likely finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -2.96 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.775 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies look great. The STJ wakes up with a big blocking pattern

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies look great. The STJ wakes up with a big blocking pattern

Maybe the models easing up a bit on the TPV press early Jan from previous runs may allow the Southern Stream to  come more into play with the +TNH and continuing -NAO.