December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[ForestHillWx]

Gotta love the potential, but very early in the game. Happy Thanksgiving and tracking! 

[SHELEG]

12Z GFS is rain for NYC verbatim.

[North and West]

12Z GFS is rain for NYC verbatim.

Eh, as long is it snows where we live, amirite?!?


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[WeatherGeek2025]

still a long way to go fortunately. Hoping for snow next week

[JonClaw]

I'm just happy we have something to track so early in the season.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

12Z GFS is rain for NYC verbatim.

Still something to track 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still something to track 

Enjoy the rain. Just busting chops. Fun to be tracking again!

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@forkyfork Thoughts on next week’s storm? 

how can you look at this pattern and think snow for i95 in early december

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Enjoy the rain. Just busting chops. Fun to be tracking again!

Im expecting that. Enjoy the snow. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how can you look at this pattern and think snow for i95 in early december

that could change can't it?

[anthonymm]

5 hours ago, North and West said:

I’ll be the hater here: Why would we have such a big snowstorm down to the shore in an early part of the season (first week of December) when we usually don’t? (I’m aware that it’s snowed during this time in the past, et. al.) The universe usually aligns against it.

Ok, I’d enjoy being wrong, but interested in knowing why it would occur. Thank you and safe travels today!


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GFS already corrected north and it's likely not done. Cimo favors the interior heavily. Catskills and Poconos should get a really nice event.

[CentralNJSnowman]

A reminder for those who have incorrectly stated that we had nothing to track early last winter...

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

A reminder for those who have incorrectly stated that we had nothing to track early last winter...

 

Gefs

[FPizz]

37 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that could change can't it?

Of course, it is 150 hours out.  The Ukie is 250 miles off the South Carolina coast.  If anyone acts like they know a damn, they are lying.  

[NEG NAO]

the 12Z Ukmet lost the storm altogether far out too sea now - nothing is set in stone yet still have 2 systems to deal with previous to this one - Ukmet shoving the cold air farther south could be a signal for a  a colder scenario here next week

[Stormlover74]

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Of course, it is 150 hours out.  The Ukie is 250 miles off the South Carolina coast.  If anyone acts like they know a damn, they are lying.  

If last February taught us anything even consensus inside 96 hours doesn’t mean anything 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z Ukmet lost the storm altogether far out too sea now - nothing is set in stone yet still have 2 systems to deal with previous to this one - Ukmet shoving the cold air farther south could be a signal for a  a colder scenario here next week

If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously. 

Euro is also weak and suppressed. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously. 

this and the cold could overwhelm the pattern which leads to cold/dry

[WeatherGeek2025]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z Ukmet lost the storm altogether far out too sea now - nothing is set in stone yet still have 2 systems to deal with previous to this one - Ukmet shoving the cold air farther south could be a signal for a  a colder scenario here next week

ukmet is probably the worst model next to Icon?

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

ukmet is probably the worst model next to Icon?

So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian - GFS basically alone as of now

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian 

Euro AI ensembles are west of the op. I expect the ridge on the east coast to pump more due to the negative PNA.  I expect shifts west but the question becomes how much far west?

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI ensembles are west of the op. I expect the ridge on the east coast to pump more due to the negative PNA.  I expect shifts west but the question becomes how much far west?

Good point

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Good point

If we want to see snow on the coast we have to hope for the trough to pass the coast before the precip comes up so it can ride the boundary. We also have to hope that the flow slows down.

We haven't had a big phase in a long time . Can we finally have one ?

[winterwx21]

The models continue to look cold in the long range all the way out to December 10th. At least we're looking at a cold weather pattern for the 1st half of December. That gives us a chance at seeing some early season accumulating snow at some point in early-mid December, even if it's a light event. Certainly beats a warm weather pattern. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The models continue to look cold in the long range all the way out to December 10th. At least we're looking at a cold weather pattern for the 1st half of December. That gives us a chance at seeing some early season accumulating snow at some point in early-mid December, even if it's a light event. Certainly beats a warm weather pattern. 

Would rather warm if it won’t snow. Can play sports outside and not freeze, lower heating bills

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Would rather warm if it won’t snow. Can play sports outside and not freeze, lower heating bills

But you need the cold air in place to have a chance at snow. I like warm weather in October and most of November, but now it's time to start rooting for colder weather for snow lovers. 

[eduggs]

The GFS lost the big western trof and sharpened a different shortwave in the central US in just a few cycles. This happened in the mid-range, not fantasy range. It just goes to show how variable model output can be in this range.

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If we want to see snow on the coast we have to hope for the trough to pass the coast before the precip comes up so it can ride the boundary. We also have to hope that the flow slows down.

We haven't had a big phase in a long time . Can we finally have one ?

I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........

I thought the Euro is usually overamped and the gfs is too progressive.