November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WEATHER53]

22 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Pattern changes are often rushed on guidance. That’s just typical? Especially -EPO driven changes. I have been posting (along with lots of better Mets) that guidance has been overdoing mid-long range warmth for us for months now. And I personally don’t want our peak pattern on December 1. Our average high is like 52 still! I’m vey good with Thanksgiving through December 10-15 being a transitional period that builds up cold air and snowcover in our source regions. 

If pattern changes are almost built in rushed in guidance then why not develop a system that does not do that?

Over last couple winters we’ve seen gigantic failure anywhere from 36 hours to 15 days out.   Very few if any positive such surprises .  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

44 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If pattern changes are almost built in rushed in guidance then why not develop a system that does not do that?

Over last couple winters we’ve seen gigantic failure anywhere from 36 hours to 15 days out.   Very few if any positive such surprises .  

 

I think you're expecting things that the computers are simply not advanced enough for those things not to happen sometimes. Why not just...accept the current limitations/biases and set forecasts/expectations from there instead of railing against the failures as if it's something easy to fix or some conspiracy? Technology simply isn't there yet. NWP (if I'm using that term correctly) is leaps and bounds better than it was 25-30 years ago but  (and someone can correct me if I'm off base on any of that).

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

If pattern changes are almost built in rushed in guidance then why not develop a system that does not do that?

Over last couple winters we’ve seen gigantic failure anywhere from 36 hours to 15 days out.   Very few if any positive such surprises .  

 

People just expect too much accuracy from model guidance, especially past day 10. The model doesn't know it's showing a "pattern change." That's just human interpretation, which is also subjective and biased. When models are inevitably less accurate in the long-range than we wish, particularly after we've identified a perceived regional "pattern change," we feel like the model failed or delayed it. But the failing is our false interpretation and unrealistic expectation.

We really should stop anthropomorphizing weather models.

[Interstate]

42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

People just expect too much accuracy from model guidance, especially past day 10. The model doesn't know it's showing a "pattern change." That's just human interpretation, which is also subjective and biased. When models are inevitably less accurate in the long-range than we wish, particularly after we've identified a perceived regional "pattern change," we feel like the model failed or delayed it. But the failing is our false interpretation and unrealistic expectation.

We really should stop anthropomorphizing weather models.

You mean 3 days 

[Weather Will]

WB latest 12Z EPS: temps average near normal/ slightly above through Dec 5. Precipitation looks like it will pick up toward the end of the period but nothing extreme. Looks like any big storms will track NW of the MA during this time frame with the NAO slightly positive and the PNA slightly negative.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS weeklies centers the coldest period in December around the holidays now with normal precip. Maybe we will be able to do more than dream about a White Christmas this year.  Definitely does not look like a torch right now around the holidays.