November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

First cold airmass arrives near November 10th and the 11 th. Could be a rather intense cold frontal passage. 

Warmth prior to this, with next Saturday having the potential to hit 66 to 67 degrees.  This Wednesday highs near 63 to 65.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

While I understand that we do not want to have the perfect pattern in November, I'm glad that we do not appear to be staring down the barrel of a wall-to-wall Pacific Puke™ fest. If I recall correctly, @Rainshadow had posted some stats in the past about the implications of mild to torch Novembers vs. average to below average November temperatures. Equally encouraging is to see the CFS and CANSIPS trying for at least climo temps for winter. 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While I understand that we do not want to have the perfect pattern in November, I'm glad that we do not appear to be staring down the barrel of a wall-to-wall Pacific Puke™ fest. If I recall correctly, @Rainshadow had posted some stats in the past about the implications of mild to torch Novembers vs. average to below average November temperatures. Equally encouraging is to see the CFS and CANSIPS trying for at least climo temps for winter. 

Looks like a boring zonal flow with a broad flat ridge sets up this week. Not torchy, but a bit on the mild side- 60s/40s with maybe a day or 2 around 70. Beyond that it looks changeable on the means- maybe a cool shot followed by a milder period again. Maybe trending colder mid month and beyond, but that's a couple weeks out.

[Weather Will]

Mid December still looks chilly on the latest Euro weeklies.  Whether it is a week of chill or it has some staying power TBD. Precip. looks normal during this timeframe as well.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Looks like a boring zonal flow with a broad flat ridge sets up this week. Not torchy, but a bit on the mild side- 60s/40s with maybe a day or 2 around 70. Beyond that it looks changeable on the means- maybe a cool shot followed by a milder period again. Maybe trending colder mid month and beyond, but that's a couple weeks out.

Perfectly fine with that. Will be interesting to see a few things:

1.) How much punch these zonal flow setups have this month. Do we stay relatively close to normal, or are we torching into the upper 70s?
2.) When the pattern does flip back, is it delayed? Another can kick winter? Will there be a decent storm, etc.?

[Weather Will]

Latest EPS has a dry first half of November

[WVclimo]

Dry Novembers have become the norm here.  Only 3 of the last 18 have finished above the long-term average of 2.73” (2011, 2018, 2022)

Average of those 18 seasons is 2.05”

[SnowenOutThere]

Blue pixels keep showing up around the 10th. Hoping to get some upslope snow

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Blue pixels keep showing up around the 10th. Hoping to get some upslope snow

GFS interesting again. I’d chase that Monday and just take it off since Tuesday is a federal holiday. Let’s see what happens.

 

[NorthArlington101]

12z EURO has plausible first flakes/flurries for the next Monday/Tuesday period. First “threat window” maybe

[stormtracker]

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

You even missed me?. 

[VA Mad Man]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

Looking forward to your insightful and realistic commentary. Especially swatting away the inevitable insanity the breaks out around winter events (or non-events). 

[DownpourDave]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

It will be my first winter here, hopefully I can bring the snow from NH down to here. 

[WxUSAF]

Dunno about snow outside the upslope areas, but next Monday-Tuesday looks legit cold right now. Highs in the 40s and lows AOB freezing for most outside the UHIs.  

[GATECH]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dunno about snow outside the upslope areas, but next Monday-Tuesday looks legit cold right now. Highs in the 40s and lows AOB freezing for most outside the UHIs.  

Guess it’s time to shut off the outside hose bibs, put the garden hoses away and 86 the remaining summer plants.  I can dig out the snow shovels too if anyone wants me to totally jinx winter…let me know.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, ravensrule said:

You even missed me?. 

The most 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, DownpourDave said:

It will be my first winter here, hopefully I can bring the snow from NH down to here. 

You poor bastard. I’m so sorry.  

[ravensrule]

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The most 

. I’m in love.

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, DownpourDave said:

It will be my first winter here, hopefully I can bring the snow from NH down to here. 

Get ready to spend 3 months tracking 1 - 3 inches of slop that melts and dries up by lunchtime.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, DownpourDave said:

It will be my first winter here, hopefully I can bring the snow from NH down to here. 

Sorry for your loss.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Get ready to spend 3 months tracking 1 - 3 inches of slop that melts and dries up by lunchtime.

 I really  hope ur day job is not a motivational speaker bro! Lol

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Get ready to spend 3 months tracking 1 - 3 inches of slop that melts and dries up by lunchtime.

Not everybody is as lucky as you. 

[bncho]

Funnily enough, EPS has a not insignificant amount of members showing at least flurries. 9 out of 50 (18%) is NOT bad.

[aldie 22]

15 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

Will you post here as much as you do on FB?

[baldereagle]

17 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

Many have been posting daily about how much they miss you when you’re not here to light our darkness.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Will you post here as much as you do on FB?

Trying to cut back on my fb posting.  Been averaging one per year for the last 5.  Getting out of hand. 

[frd]

[North Balti Zen]

18 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Dunno about snow outside the upslope areas, but next Monday-Tuesday looks legit cold right now. Highs in the 40s and lows AOB freezing for most outside the UHIs.  

About time on freezing. Still have not had a hard freeze at the farm in Fallston. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Once again, @WxUSAF is absolutely correct to be concerned about "wasting patterns", but it's somewhat comforting to see things slowly trending cooler as we near our first shot of late autumn weather. Not only more expansive cold, but better negative anamolies.

EDIT: Euro also showing this too!