November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

First cold airmass arrives near November 10th and the 11 th. Could be a rather intense cold frontal passage. 

Warmth prior to this, with next Saturday having the potential to hit 66 to 67 degrees.  This Wednesday highs near 63 to 65.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

While I understand that we do not want to have the perfect pattern in November, I'm glad that we do not appear to be staring down the barrel of a wall-to-wall Pacific Puke™ fest. If I recall correctly, @Rainshadow had posted some stats in the past about the implications of mild to torch Novembers vs. average to below average November temperatures. Equally encouraging is to see the CFS and CANSIPS trying for at least climo temps for winter. 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While I understand that we do not want to have the perfect pattern in November, I'm glad that we do not appear to be staring down the barrel of a wall-to-wall Pacific Puke™ fest. If I recall correctly, @Rainshadow had posted some stats in the past about the implications of mild to torch Novembers vs. average to below average November temperatures. Equally encouraging is to see the CFS and CANSIPS trying for at least climo temps for winter. 

Looks like a boring zonal flow with a broad flat ridge sets up this week. Not torchy, but a bit on the mild side- 60s/40s with maybe a day or 2 around 70. Beyond that it looks changeable on the means- maybe a cool shot followed by a milder period again. Maybe trending colder mid month and beyond, but that's a couple weeks out.

[Weather Will]

Mid December still looks chilly on the latest Euro weeklies.  Whether it is a week of chill or it has some staying power TBD. Precip. looks normal during this timeframe as well.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Looks like a boring zonal flow with a broad flat ridge sets up this week. Not torchy, but a bit on the mild side- 60s/40s with maybe a day or 2 around 70. Beyond that it looks changeable on the means- maybe a cool shot followed by a milder period again. Maybe trending colder mid month and beyond, but that's a couple weeks out.

Perfectly fine with that. Will be interesting to see a few things:

1.) How much punch these zonal flow setups have this month. Do we stay relatively close to normal, or are we torching into the upper 70s?
2.) When the pattern does flip back, is it delayed? Another can kick winter? Will there be a decent storm, etc.?

[Weather Will]

Latest EPS has a dry first half of November

[WVclimo]

Dry Novembers have become the norm here.  Only 3 of the last 18 have finished above the long-term average of 2.73” (2011, 2018, 2022)

Average of those 18 seasons is 2.05”

[SnowenOutThere]

Blue pixels keep showing up around the 10th. Hoping to get some upslope snow

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Blue pixels keep showing up around the 10th. Hoping to get some upslope snow

GFS interesting again. I’d chase that Monday and just take it off since Tuesday is a federal holiday. Let’s see what happens.

 

[NorthArlington101]

12z EURO has plausible first flakes/flurries for the next Monday/Tuesday period. First “threat window” maybe

[stormtracker]

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

You even missed me?. 

[VA Mad Man]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

Looking forward to your insightful and realistic commentary. Especially swatting away the inevitable insanity the breaks out around winter events (or non-events). 

[DownpourDave]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 Almost time for my migration from real life back to this fucking place. I've missed yall.

This year, some of us will not make it.  It is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

It will be my first winter here, hopefully I can bring the snow from NH down to here.