November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We know why

Haven’t gotten above the long term average sub-32 hours at CON in October in like a decade, but we just don’t know why.  It could change next year.

[kdxken]

 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

lol at Oct 1974. 50 years go and it may as well be yore now.

The low temps are just incredible.  Even on days that are somewhat warm. 70/23 on the 5th and 68/22 on the 29th.  

[WxWatcher007]

Low of 26.3° here at WXW1

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That would be great!

it's likely wrong... I mean for one, that model's not going to resolve idiosyncratic in situ synoptic elements, because the climatology normalizing aspect ends up muting those specific signals.   case in point, at 48 to 72 hours there's a lead s/w in Indian/southern Lakes, that skirts out ahead of the main trough, priory to it going through that amplitude out there are 84-96 ... that little piece of shit is a ruiner. it is in destructive interference with what probably could have been a CFS type solution. the CFS doesn't even have that lead wave.    the other guidance all do, and as a consequence have to generate a second wave forming along b-c axis down around eastern VA, but they then fail to really get it's act together soon enough ... the ensemble of the EPS bombs that that thing in the GOM... way to late (btw). 

If it were not for the lead pos mentioned above, than the event emphasis would probably be the feature.   it's not impossible that thing modulate in that direction but it would be pretty rare at this range for the the other more dependable guidance types.   

i was just bringing it up more tongue-in-cheek.  but yeah, it's nice eye candy.  ha.

 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haven’t gotten above the long term average sub-32 hours at CON in October in like a decade, but we just don’t know why.  It could change next year.

We know why cyclical warming of the earth. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

We know why cyclical warming of the earth. 

Yeah I mean I was just thinking because the earth is warming.  Don’t need to go much deeper than that.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We know why cyclical warming of the earth. 

Thank you. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I mean I was just thinking because the earth is warming.  Don’t need to go much deeper than that.

For now it is…that will change too. 

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Different this year…gonna be a decent winter. 

[CoastalWx]

Yep all natural. 100%. Nothing has changed.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep all natural. 100%. Nothing has changed.

Most all of it is. Sorry. 

[tamarack]

Lots of SNE colder than here this morning.  Clouds held the temp at 27.

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haven’t gotten above the long term average sub-32 hours at CON in October in like a decade, but we just don’t know why.  It could change next year.

Dry like the moon back then. Get those water vapor levels back down and we can heat up and cool down diurnally like Idaho. CON was really rad happy back then, but even on those 11° mornings the Franklin coop up here had 13° on both of those days.

[dendrite]

I don’t even want to debate warming or melting. Can we all just agree that the CO2 isn’t normal? Can we at least try to get that back down to the baseline? It shouldn’t be a partisan thing. We’re all science people here. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t even want to debate warming or melting. Can we all just agree that the CO2 isn’t normal? Can we at least try to get that back down to the baseline? It shouldn’t be a partisan thing. We’re all science people here. 

Looks all natural to me. This has happened in the past even though it occurred exponentially slower compared to now. Nothing to see. Stop making a big deal out of it.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So if this Climate tainted version of the GFS model known as the CFS is going to be right ... one would think these 12z runs are going to have to at least start to represent. It's only 84 f'um hours away.   There's a bit of an implication there in the 'climate' part - where in the past, this kind of trough/synoptic evolution ended up producing an NJ model quick deepener/ with cold rain over to snows scenario. Why else is this model keep insisting this set up like below. It isn't the first run (0z) that was selling this. 

But of course we know now that CC's proooobably ruined that from ever happening going forward  .   It's okay - because CC doesn't exist anyway, right

 

Mark, is that you again?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 It shouldn’t be a partisan thing. We’re all science people here. 

I do always wonder if everyone just woke up one day, with no memory of the past and political parties and no memory of anyone trying to change anyone else's behavior... if we all just looked at the data now what would the conclusion be?

The minute anyone tried to change someone else's behavior is the minute the discussion changed.

We need that Men In Black pen to just reset everyone's mind.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks all natural to me. This has happened in the past even though it occurred exponentially slower compared to now. Nothing to see. Stop making a big deal out of it.

yeah back when ineedsnow had T-rex running through his yard.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I do always wonder if everyone just woke up one day, with no memory of the past and political parties and no memory of anyone trying to change anyone else's behavior... if we all just looked at the data now what would the conclusion be?

The minute anyone tried to change someone else's behavior is the minute the discussion changed.

We need that Men In Black pen to just reset everyone's mind.

So true. 
 

Anyways at least Tip just locked in a snow event for us.

[weathafella]

Happy Friday friends.  I love how we’re evolving this autumn.  I think we start fast-widespread snow before mid December.  I got down to 31 last night.  Had to wear a light winter jacket on last nights walk.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Happy Friday friends.  I love how we’re evolving this autumn.  I think we start fast-widespread snow before mid December.  I got down to 31 last night.  Had to wear a light winter jacket on last nights walk.

Yeah let’s do it. I’d like a front loaded winter with deeper pack at the solar min.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah let’s do it. I’d like a front loaded winter with deeper pack at the solar min.

Let’s get a 3’ pack in January and cherry blossoms in February. 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t even want to debate warming or melting. Can we all just agree that the CO2 isn’t normal? Can we at least try to get that back down to the baseline? It shouldn’t be a partisan thing. We’re all science people here. 

You guys bring the shit up all the time. Take it to the proper thread.
 

And the data isn’t exactly iron clad either..that’s a problem in and of itself. 
 

but yes..let’s get back to current weather. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You guys bring the shit up all the time. Take it to the proper thread.
 

And the data isn’t exactly iron clad either..that’s a problem in and of itself. 
 

but yes..let’s get back to current weather. 

Please provide your alternative data, Mr. man of science.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So if this Climate tainted version of the GFS model known as the CFS is going to be right ... one would think these 12z runs are going to have to at least start to represent. It's only 84 f'um hours away.   There's a bit of an implication there in the 'climate' part - where in the past, this kind of trough/synoptic evolution ended up producing an NJ model quick deepener/ with cold rain over to snows scenario. Why else is this model keep insisting this set up like below. It isn't the first run (0z) that was selling this. 

But of course we know now that CC's proooobably ruined that from ever happening going forward  .   It's okay - because CC doesn't exist anyway, right

 

I was just about to comment on Mark MoreGarbage's post on this ( Yes, I filed him a long time ago before I realized what a goon he was, but never unfollowed him because I get a kick out of his posts ). I asked him whenever has a CFS been a model that we would use, especially for something within about 4 days. This was his response

"Well, now you have seen someone use it.
I value consistency. In a world where all models are wrong, I pay attention to the ones that give a consistent message."

Hey, if this happens I will eat Crow.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Please provide your alternative data, Mr. man of science.

The data is skewed..period.  But Please take to proper thread…Mr. stir the pot. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I was just about to comment on Mark MoreGarbage's post on this ( Yes, I filed him a long time ago before I realized what a goon he was, but never unfollowed him because I get a kick out of his posts ). I asked him whenever has a CFS been a model that we would use, especially for something within about 4 days. This was his response

"Well, now you have seen someone use it.
I value consistency. In a world where all models are wrong, I pay attention to the ones that give a consistent message."

Hey, if this happens I will eat Crow.

Lol..ya, consistently wrong. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

To me a freeze is upper 20’s for a few hours 

I kind of agree but officially I guess 32.0 does it? 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The data is skewed..period.  But Please take to proper thread…Mr. stir the pot. 

The CO2 data has been measured with instrumentation since 1950 but okay.  
 

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