November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[Supernovice]

Auroras tonight if we can get this to clear out in SNE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

Auroras tonight if we can get this to clear out in SNE

Still mostly cloudy here with some breaks.  A few stars showing.
What is good viewing time?

[HoarfrostHubb]

From my front yard.  Great display for SNE

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Still mostly cloudy here with some breaks.  A few stars showing.
What is good viewing time?

Now.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Of course, now I’m at WXW2 and it’s 25.7° with -SN. Deep winter feel here. Lights would’ve been epic. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not my photo but from Hubbardston MA

[Supernovice]

I tried, got nothing- I assume facing north?

edit: don’t be an idiot like me and double check your exposures people. Very nice show.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

I tried, got nothing- I assume facing north?

Yup.  

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Supernovice said:

Auroras tonight if we can get this to clear out in SNE

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

From Barre MA

[moneypitmike]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From my front yard.  Great display for SNE

much more impressive than an inch of snow!

[alex]

Damn! I’m bummed we’re missing the aurora. But it’s still snowing hard and it’s really beautiful out. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Barre MA

Damn!  The clouds only got thicker and thicker here after I posted an hour ago.

Full overcast for the loss. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From my front yard.  Great display for SNE

Beautiful!
What’s that in the lower right corner? A house lit up? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Beautiful!
What’s that in the lower right corner? A house lit up? 

Alien sacrificial alter. It’s an Aurora ritual thing they do. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

[jsw]

8 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From my front yard.  Great display for SNE

Nice! I lay down to read and fell asleep before 9pm. I have seen the glowing white curtain type, but never bright colors. Thanks!

[TheMainer]

First inch of snow overnight, only had flurries before. Going to move up driving our field stakes for the snowmobile club by a week cause if we wait the ground is going to be frozen pretty good. First fall since 2018 we won't do it the weekend before Thanksgiving so by pure anecdotal evidence hopefully we'll have a good winter! 

I'm skeptical about Sunday at lower elevation here in the valley, but up higher might do decent.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Beautiful!
What’s that in the lower right corner? A house lit up? 

Yeah. Neighbor’s porch lights

[HoarfrostHubb]

49 minutes ago, jsw said:

Nice! I lay down to read and fell asleep before 9pm. I have seen the glowing white curtain type, but never bright colors. Thanks!

I have only ever seen Aurora twice before. Once back in the late 1980s but I was in a city and it was meh.  Then last October and it was all red but I was in a great spot   
Last night I could see the greens and reds with my naked eye pretty well. Camera brightens it a bit but still it was quite visible. 

[dendrite]

The past 2 bigger events have been nice and visible to the naked eye here, but 2003 blows this away. It’s like comparing my 34” in 12hrs in Dec 2020 to my 34 flakes yesterday. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Light snow falling 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The past 2 bigger events have been nice and visible to the naked eye here, but 2003 blows this away. It’s like comparing my 34” in 12hrs in Dec 2020 to my 34 flakes yesterday. 

Yeah 2003 was insane. I still remember the traffic jam it caused. I had no idea until I looked up from my car and was like wtf!!

[CoastalWx]

Nothing really exciting ahead.

[Cold Miser]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Light snow falling 

Stay extremely safe.  

[Bryan63]

Have a work trip to Portland next week with two employees flying in from LA and Phoenix, hoping they get to see some flakes while they're out.

[GCWarrior]

Very snowy here in Lanesborough. I'll try to snap a pic at some point soon. 

[GCWarrior]

.

[Typhoon Tip]

Large scale changes in the circulation mode of the Pacific are emerging in both the operational prediction methods, and experimentals. 

It is way out there in time. We won't get too crazy. That does standard challenges to confidence, but relative to typical predictive skill at extended leads for pattern evolution, this is above normal.  There are compelling signals nearing and post TG.   

Those go beyond just numerical indexes.  They're related to zonal wind collapse structure at very high altitudes ( around 60 N) over Siberia, unzipping around globe toward the the Alaskan sector. That can be associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.  However ... I suspect what is happening in the guidance is the other way around.  An exceptionally loud upper level ridge signal may be emerging in time. These can N-NE Pacific ridge blossoms can lift heights ... forcing the mean polar vortex to 'kidney bean'.   Interestingly, it can be a prelude to an SSW too -  longer discussion, but I suspect that is worth watching for an SSW later in December. 

Meanwhile, all three, EPS/GEFS/CEFS ensemble systems are drilling both the West Pacific and East Pacific Oscillation indexes negative on and after Thanks Giggedy.  This is also nicely painted in the spatial synoptic charts.   They are clearly reconstructing the Pacific; there is even evidence of an HC recession ... lowering heights beneath 40 N between Japan and N of Hawaii.  That's a regression in low latitudes that would typically herald a ridge response over the NE Pacific and Alaska.  

So there's several methods converging on a signal for Pacific change.   It just so happens to be ... the changes are canonical preludes to N/W cold loading. 

We may also have to contend ( ha, "contend" - some people want it ) with a warm up E of 100W across the continent.  The NAO probably loses the non-linear support for it's existence and starts to disappear as these aforementioned changes are emerging.