TS Melissa

[hawkeye_wx]

This is a weak and messy circulation.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is a weak and messy circulation.

It’ll be crazy to see the transformation in 72 hours. Not as dramatic as Gabrielle, but dramatic nonetheless.

[SnowGoose69]

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

Keep it moving west 

[Boston Bulldog]

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

[Floydbuster]

20 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

Agree. Sadly, had it done this a few days ago, it might have slipped through the weakness.

[Windspeed]

That track would be quite disastrous for Jamaica as it rakes most of the island with the front right quadrant.  Not to mention the huge amount of moisture that will be lifted and squeezed out by the mountains.

Given the slow recurve motion, Jamaica is facing a catastrophic flooding and mudslide situation.

[Windspeed]

The HAFS suite shows just how dire the slow recurve scenario would be with regards to a catastrophic flooding / mudslide scenario. The general wind and pressure intensities may be overdone, but the amount of rainfall will be extreme regardless.

[WxWatcher007]

This is such a sensitive track and intensity forecast. Just a few miles south or north would make a huge difference in intensity even though the catastrophic rainfall looks highly likely. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm glad the GFS is starting to get some sense with Melissa finally but holy shit what is the UKMET still doing lmao it's been doing this for days now when it's usually one of the best performing models. Just wild we've had the UKMET and GFS performing so poorly for so long with this storm.

 

[jbenedet]

Well done by the NHC; not even marginally hedging their forecast with the GFS output over the past few days.