Windspeed Posted yesterday at 09:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:41 AM Also, Jamaica has already been getting pounded all night with that right front quad feeder band feeding off the central Caribbean. There appears to be a break in precip between the core and that wide, strong, convectively active feeder. That might help some, but totals are no doubt already adding up over the higher terrain to the central and eastern range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted yesterday at 09:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:43 AM Thank you! Glad Kevin was able to grab an image. Yeah, Melissa's core has been one of the most resilient I can remember since perhaps Dorian and Irma at such a high intensity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted yesterday at 09:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:48 AM Flooding in Kingston already via this sat image from Copernicus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted yesterday at 09:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:58 AM Pinpoint eye and significant Lightning visible in this image capture. Just a monster of a storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted yesterday at 10:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:20 AM 32 minutes ago, Hotair said: Flooding in Kingston already via this sat image from Copernicus https://www.youtube.com/live/k4Lt_iev8x4 Here's live video of the Flat Bridge (would just be off to the NW of this map N of Spanish Town). You can rewind showing the water level rise over the last 8 hours to where the bridge is now almost completely overtopped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted yesterday at 10:28 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:28 AM Oh man! That ain’t good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 10:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:44 AM 59 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Thank you! Glad Kevin was able to grab an image. Yeah, Melissa's core has been one of the most resilient I can remember since perhaps Dorian and Irma at such a high intensity. It's one of the biggest gaps in weather forecasting, we don't really have any good metrics for predicting ERCs. The hurricane models actually usually do a pretty good job and were spot on in predicting a stable eye through landfall once it reached cat 4 strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted yesterday at 11:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:01 AM You can see the wobbling in the eyewall merger and then watch it become perfect again. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 11:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:05 AM The next recon should make another pass in an hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted yesterday at 11:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:07 AM Let's see if Josh nails the eye on this one and if it holds the stadium effect to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:14 AM It actually looks better now on satellite after whatever happened with that merger. Not good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted yesterday at 11:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:31 AM It is clear something favorable happened to the inner core structure in the last two hours. The CDO suddenly appears even stronger, the eye has grown in size, and there has been an explosion of intense lightning surrounding the eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted yesterday at 11:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:34 AM Imagery actually suggests that the diameter of the eye has increased since the merger. Now we have a deep ring of lighting as well. I hate to say this, but it looks like Melissa is undergoing another period of intensification. Certainly somewhat better than a steady-state. Recon will be, *ahem* interesting... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted yesterday at 11:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:35 AM Recon is gonna find a sub 900 storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted yesterday at 11:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:37 AM Insane lightning in that eye wall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted yesterday at 11:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:39 AM I am guessing somewhere around Treasure Beach is going to see the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 11:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:40 AM System is a wonderful casestudy in how to navigate internal processess in the healthiest way possible. Wow. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted yesterday at 11:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:40 AM 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Insane lightning in that eye wall. Strengthening at LF. Not good at all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:41 AM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: System is a wonderful casestudy in how to navigate internal processess in the healthiest way possible. Wow. I was just thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted yesterday at 11:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:49 AM Getting a little forward motion giving it a little more warm water to strengthen? Hopefully hits in the middle where it's mostly goats and chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted yesterday at 11:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:50 AM WV eye temp rose to -2.76C! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted yesterday at 11:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:55 AM It almost looks like whatever restructuring occurred in the early morning hours allowed for the eye to expand a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 11:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:58 AM Yea, St Elizabeth's Parish will get wiped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 12:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:02 PM 27 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Imagery actually suggests that the diameter of the eye has increased since the merger. Now we have a deep ring of lighting as well. I hate to say this, but it looks like Melissa is undergoing another period of intensification. Certainly somewhat better than a steady-state. Recon will be, *ahem* interesting... Not looking like a miss, despite that hour detour on this forum yesterday. Shocking how all guidance and the NHC were right. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted yesterday at 12:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 PM We may have landfall just after noon, perhaps by 1PM EDT. Trying to approximate this while considering that the forward motion is also slowly increasing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 12:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:04 PM One of the "best" areas that it could have hit in terms of population....west jog did us a small solid. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted yesterday at 12:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:04 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not looking like a miss, despite that hour detour on this forum yesterday. Shocking how all guidance and the NHC were right. Looks like they'll (NHC) be dead nuts actually. Everyone was thinking Montego was going to be on the eastern eyewall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted yesterday at 12:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:05 PM Anyone have any good live feeds from near the landfall locale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:06 PM 1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said: Looks like they'll (NHC) be dead nuts actually. Everyone was thinking Montego was going to be on the eastern eyewall lol. I’m a little worried about them. It could be nasty there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:07 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:07 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m a little worried about them. It could be nasty there. N to NW winds there right off the water and near western eyewall. Hopefully it’s east of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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