The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[Yeoman]

Damn this sucks.. I was really looking forward to my weekend being ruined by rain.

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Damn this sucks.. I was really looking forward to my weekend being ruined by rain.

An inch of accumulation is still enough to cancel outdoor stuff.

[TSSN+]

For those of you say when a snow storm shifts big inside 96hrs, why’s this never happen with rain storms? Well here ya go. lol 

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m staying the course. The storm last month moved inland much further than expected, and yes, I know this is different, but I’m optimistic for an inch plus.

Rain, RR. Rain.

[snowfan]

49 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was at Cushwa and now Sapwood.

Sapwood recently released cheater x7 and it’s phenomenal.

To make this a weather related post……overcast, breezy and kinda chilly this afternoon. 

[Weather Will]

Big shift west on WB 12K NAM....will post the maps when the run completes.

[yoda]

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A coastal low pressure system will take shape off of the
Southeast U.S. Coast tonight through midday Saturday, before
moving north along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night. An occasional shower or sprinkles could
evolve Saturday into Saturday evening from southeast to
northwest across the region. A light to moderate steadier
rainfall could arrive in several bands overnight Saturday
through Sunday night as the coastal low gets closer to the mid-
Atlantic region and nearly stalls. Rain amounts could average 1
to 2 inches along and east of a line from Hagerstown to
Warrenton to Fredericksburg. To the west of this line, one-half
to three-quarters of an inch. The heaviest rainfall could reach
the 3 to 3.5 inch amounts in places. The interaction between
the departing area of high pressure off the New England Coast
and the coastal low pressure system will result in stronger
northeast winds to develop and persist through much of the
weekend. An elongated trough of low pressure, accompanied by a
few mid-level disturbances, will help to tighten the pressure
gradient Saturday through Sunday to result in stronger
northeasterly winds. Northeast winds will increase late Saturday
night through Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20
mph gusting 25 to 30 mph. Winds could gust 35 to 40 mph over
land within a several miles of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline. A
big uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of coastal
low, simultaneously, as it moves up the coast. Also, to make
matters even less certain, is the interaction or phasing of the
mid- level disturbances with the coastal low and the exact
location of that occurrence.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into Monday, and perhaps
even into the first half of Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders off
the Delmarva Peninsula before eventually pulling further offshore on
Tuesday.

There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation
should taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the low shift further to
the east. However, it remain close enough that winds may still
remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

[CAPE]

Mount Holly still sticking with the general idea of a high impact event. This little snippet is semi-interesting from their AFD-

Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime Saturday or Saturday night. All previously issued watches remain in effect at this time due to the continued uncertainty in timing, severity, and inland extent of impacts.

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m staying the course. The storm last month moved inland much further than expected, and yes, I know this is different, but I’m optimistic for an inch plus.

Rain, RR. Rain.

I’m guaranteeing you 2” if you follow my instructions. 

[WEATHER53]

Forecasters catching on now. Models mean zip. Look at the radar and other tools. Already a solid east to west movement of rain down the coast . 
This won’t be missing DC to the east. 
 

Sat: Rain developing late .

Sat night:Rain , , heavy at times with ne winds increasing 20-30mph  

Sunday : Rainy and raw with ne winds 20-30 mph, sustained 25-35mph possible, gusts to 40 and gusts to 50 possible, chilly highs 55-60 

Monday: Rainy ending in afternoon and windy, DC area rainfall 1-3”

Little change in my forecast since Monday 

 

[TSSN+]

Comedy. This stuff writes itself. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON, which did well with last coastal, is still a whiff.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Comedy. This stuff writes itself. 

 

 

A couple more runs and we'll be back to sunny and beautiful like the forecast was a few days ago lol. Fingers crossed

[Amped]

Medium range rug pulls is what our region does best. 

[CAPE]

It's always complicated. We just can't know...yet 

[IronTy]

So either I'm gonna get 3"+ of rain per the NAM or it's just gonna be cloudy per the ICON.  We are so back.  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RDPS ticked east.  Looks as bad as ICON.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

So either I'm gonna get 3"+ of rain per the NAM or it's just gonna be cloudy per the ICON.  We are so back.  

We all know that the lowest amount usually verifies...

[CAPE]

HH GFS looks like a slight tick east so far. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Sapwood recently released cheater x7 and it’s phenomenal.

To make this a weather related post……overcast, breezy and kinda chilly this afternoon. 

I saw that but didn’t try it. I had the three cask aged bottle pours. GD they do good aged sours.

To make this a weather related post…..overcast, breezy and kinda chilly this afternoon.

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH GFS looks like a slight tick east so far. 

Would still be a nice soaking rain for most. It’s the best of the options at this point outside the NAM.

[SoCoWx]

A couple more runs and we'll be back to sunny and beautiful like the forecast was a few days ago lol. Fingers crossed

I’m going to Maryland Ren Faire on Sunday! Don’t threaten me with a good time!


.

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, SoCoWx said:

I’m going to Maryland Ren Faire on Sunday! Don’t threaten me with a good time!


.

You and a million others. I live right down the road from there. The traffic on our little back roads is crazy. If we're not getting a fun storm hopefully we can salvage the weekend. I'm hiking to Annopoils Rocks and Black Rock tomorrow. Looks good as of now. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

An inch is still on the table based on the forecast apps.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS, EURO, and AI

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

A couple more runs and we'll be back to sunny and beautiful like the forecast was a few days ago lol. Fingers crossed

Now you’ve ensured that it’ll do a 180 and we get the totals from yesterday.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM...

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RRFS just came out.  Good test for the new model.

[JenkinsJinkies]

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z RRFS just came out.  Good test for the new model.

Wow, I literally called it before you posted these.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ 12K NAM and 3K