The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Bullshit 

Euro from Sunday 12z

[Weather Will]

Latest EURO AI is also a strung out nothing burger.

[WxUSAF]

Euro moved back to what it had been doing, which is it retrogrades it back toward us and gives us a very rainy Monday.  Widespread 1".  Still a pretty different solution than GFS/GGEM/Icon, and it all comes down to where the northern stream shortwave phases in.

[WEATHER53]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Euro from Sunday 12z

There was no text forecasting nor model support for mid Atlantic storminess MTW of this week and I issued my statement on Monday.  What one model said for one run on Sunday dont mean shit and even that was just showery.and east of DC 

We have self appointed hall monitors here in the winter and don’t need that year round.  Sorry for you that getting it right irks you 

 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro moved back to what it had been doing, which is it retrogrades it back toward us and gives us a very rainy Monday.  Widespread 1".  Still a pretty different solution than GFS/GGEM/Icon, and it all comes down to where the northern stream shortwave phases in.

Yah, I don't understand the EURO evolution very well.  It looks wonky with a double low setup and throwing back moisture. AI is a nothing burger west of the Bay. WB 12Z.

[bncho]

I feel good about this one. I said that about one hundred times last winter I'm and going to die with it again.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro moved back to what it had been doing, which is it retrogrades it back toward us and gives us a very rainy Monday.  Widespread 1".  Still a pretty different solution than GFS/GGEM/Icon, and it all comes down to where the northern stream shortwave phases in.

Looks like the Midwest short wave does not get over the CONUS upper air network until 12z tomorrow, 10/10. Wonder if we'll see things tighten up tomorrow morning?

[WEATHER53]

Get ready for this one

20-30 sustained with gusts to 40 and 1-3” around DC . Stars mid to late Sat  and may not end until Monday morning 

[bncho]

h

this gives a winter vibe. everybody hyped for a storm in a STORM THREAD. hell yeah baby. let's reel this one in!!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It would be nice to get a proper nor easter.  I really can't remember when was the last good fall nor easter......when was it?

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It would be nice to get a proper nor easter.  I really can't remember when was the last good fall nor easter......when was it?

It feels like the 90's since we had a October Nor'easter lol

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It feels like the 90's since we had a October Nor'easter lol

from what i'm reading, the last October Nor'easter was October 29 2011, where IAD got 0.2 inches of snow, and DCA got 0.1!

[TSSN+]

49 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

You are wise to use this rule... Why are you here again? 

 

To watch the chaos. 

[AlexD1990]

lol so glad i suggested this 

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It would be nice to get a proper nor easter.  I really can't remember when was the last good fall nor easter......when was it?

Last bonafide one was during October 2017 IIRC

[high risk]

43 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

There was no text forecasting nor model support for mid Atlantic storminess MTW of this week and I issued my statement on Monday.  What one model said for one run on Sunday dont mean shit and even that was just showery.and east of DC

 

 If you had said that the models had major disagreement and inconsistency all week, you would have been correct.   But you wrote that the "models had nothing about this until now".   That is spectacularly and embarrassingly wrong.    You can read discussion about this being a legitimate threat in the medium range as far back as Monday.   

[somecallmetim]

And here was the WPC 7-day map on Monday afternoon.

[CasualObserver]

Will someone please update me, in the most layman terms, what is expected for this weekend? I'm having a hard time following. I will be a vendor at the Fairfax Fall Festival on Saturday and at Clifton Day on Sunday so it's more important to me than usual. 

I don't know much about this stuff. I follow along here because I feel like I get a better idea of what's happening than I do with TV or a weather app. 

[wxmeddler]

9 minutes ago, CasualObserver said:

Will someone please update me, in the most layman terms, what is expected for this weekend? I'm having a hard time following. I will be a vendor at the Fairfax Fall Festival on Saturday and at Clifton Day on Sunday so it's more important to me than usual. 

I don't know much about this stuff. I follow along here because I feel like I get a better idea of what's happening than I do with TV or a weather app. 

Saturday, probably ok. Increasing clouds.
Sunday, breezy, more clouds, somewhere between drizzle/light rain and an absolute washout.
Monday: Breezy and light rain

[bncho]

Another tick east by the 12z Euro Ensemble. 1.6" -> 1.3" -> 1.0"

[bncho]

12z Euro AI ensemble ticks east similar to it's non-AI counterpart. 1.2" -> 0.9" -> 0.7"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, CasualObserver said:

Will someone please update me, in the most layman terms, what is expected for this weekend? I'm having a hard time following. I will be a vendor at the Fairfax Fall Festival on Saturday and at Clifton Day on Sunday so it's more important to me than usual. 

I don't know much about this stuff. I follow along here because I feel like I get a better idea of what's happening than I do with TV or a weather app. 

There is a chance of a coastal storm, if the storm takes a track we all would prefer we get a nice stormy sunday and maybe monday, if the storm slides east a bit maybe just some light rain or drizzle.  You'll have to wait and see! Or you could follow every model suite like we do lol. 

[bncho]

SUMMARIZING THE 12Z SUITE

Globals
GFS | IAD: 2-3", DCA: 2-3", BWI: 3-5", RIC: 2-3.5" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide)
ECWMF | IAD: 1-1.3", DCA: 1.3-1.8", BWI: 1.5-2.5", RIC: <0.5" 
EC-AIFS | IAD: <0.15", DCA: <0.2", BWI: <0.2", RIC: 0.2-0.5" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide)
CMC/GEM | IAD: 0.5-1", DCA: 1-3", BWI: 2-3", RIC: 0.4-0.7"
ICON | IAD: 1-1.6", DCA: 1.3-1.7", BWI: 1.3-1.6", RIC: 1.5-2.5"
UKMET | IAD: <0.15", DCA <0.1", BWI: 0.3-0.8", RIC: 0.2-0.5"

Ensembles
GEFS | IAD: 0.8-1.2", DCA: 1.1-1.5", BWI: 1.3-1.7", RIC: 0.8-1.1"
ECWMF Ens | IAD: 0.8-1", DCA: 0.9-1.1", BWI: 1-1.2", RIC: 0.9-1.1"
EC-AIFS Ens | IAD: 0.4-0.7", DCA: 0.6-0.8", BWI: 0.7-0.9", RIC: 0.5-0.7" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide)
CMCE | IAD: 0.9-1.2", DCA: 1.3-1.6", BWI: 1.6-2", RIC: 0.9-1.2" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide)

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

h

this gives a winter vibe. everybody hyped for a storm in a STORM THREAD. hell yeah baby. let's reel this one in!!!!

If this was winter we would have 300 members browsing with 290 of them cliff diving 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM

[Weather Will]

For what it is worth, WB 18Z HRRR upper level at 2pm Sat. Looks more like 12Z GFS than 12Z EURO, which is a good thing if you want more rain. In particular,  see the upper level low over N Ohio on HRRR and GFS; further east on EURO.

[WxWatcher007]

32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

If this was winter we would have 300 members browsing with 290 of them cliff diving 

Indeed

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CasualObserver said:

Will someone please update me, in the most layman terms, what is expected for this weekend? I'm having a hard time following. I will be a vendor at the Fairfax Fall Festival on Saturday and at Clifton Day on Sunday so it's more important to me than usual. 

I don't know much about this stuff. I follow along here because I feel like I get a better idea of what's happening than I do with TV or a weather app. 

It’s a tough forecast for your area still. Most confident parts are cloudy, cool, and breezy. Rain is possible anytime between Saturday afternoon (showers at most) to Monday (potentially steady moderate rain). Rain amounts are still a hard call for areas west of the Bay and DC especially. 

[mappy]

I’m working a table at Hampstead's Fall Fest Saturday, hoping any rain that does come in, happens after 4pm

[WEATHER53]

My latest update on this is it continues to increase in intensity 

By very late Saturday night or wee hours of Sunday it gets going. Winds pick up to 20-30 from e-ne and temps hold in 50’s Sunday with squally rains and winds 25-35 gusting to 50 before ending around dawn Monday with 1-3” of rain and strong ne winds all day Monday.

Should I create a new thread “The 53 storm discussion and obs” ?