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OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.


wdrag
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6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If this were winter...I'd say wait to crow until midnight tonight.

MUCH more to come today. 1-2", iso heavier coasts and even interior will do ok. 

Convection developing per HRRR - might be quite a nasty afternoon parts of coasts.

Am pretty sure some parts Li and eastern Nj will end up with 4".

CoCoRaHs two day.  .31 Wantage since 5P yesterday.  Two day .4, heading for .6-1.0 three day totals by tomorrow morning. 

Click for more detail.

 

Screen Shot 2025-10-13 at 9.21.21 AM.png

My location and the surrounding PWS in western Suffolk are well over 2”. Localized maximum not showing up on there 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

My location and the surrounding PWS in western Suffolk are well over 2”. Localized maximum not showing up on there 

I believe... it'll all get ironed out tomorrow morning OKX PNS and official climate site data inclusive of CoCoRaHs.  Enjoy the nasty chilly day.

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22 minutes ago, snywx said:

.52 here 

sharp cutoff within the county 

Yep, we’ve seen this before, up to .99 now.  Yesterday some were questioning if anything of note would happen north of 95, NW of 287 even though the models had whatever was going to fall coming in overnight. This is pretty much exactly what I’d been expecting IMBY but I know that is subjective and location based. 

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Tidal: am virtually certain moderate CF develops at Sandy Hook area midday... long duration of minor tidal inundation.  Tides still running 3' above predicted at 940A.  Should make about 8' MLLW there. Not sure what OKX has but follow what ever they have including the datums they select. 

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19 minutes ago, Sundog said:

2.20 here so far, that heavy batch that passed over Queens/Nassau overnight helped me catch up to you guys 

Yea that was a meaty band. Squall just blew through and brought me up to 2.44”. Lots of wind in these bands 

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Only 0.42" here so far. Maybe we get a quarter inch more this afternoon into tonight? At least it's enough to give the vegetable garden a watering, but not nearly enough to bust the drought. I was hoping we'd get a lot more from this storm, but of course the signs were there that the heavier amounts would be to the south and east. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 0.42" here so far. Maybe we get a quarter inch more this afternoon into tonight? At least it's enough to give the vegetable garden a watering, but not nearly enough to bust the drought. I was hoping we'd get a lot more from this storm, but of course the signs were there that the heavier amounts would be to the south and east. 

0.41" in Somerset (0.53" including Saturday's rain). The cutoff is quite extreme, but this aspect of the event was (eventually) modeled well. Was hoping it might just push a tad further west. Better than nothing though! The drought continues. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

My location and the surrounding PWS in western Suffolk are well over 2”. Localized maximum not showing up on there 

Yes and this is a major noreaster.  Noreasters are measured by coastal flooding and winds and while we have not had high wind warning type winds the coastal flooding is very widespread and not just in Freeport.  All the way west by Far Rockaway the water has come up to the shopping mall parking lots and the main roads like Central Avenue.

This storm is no joke!

 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Tidal: am virtually certain moderate CF develops at Sandy Hook area midday... long duration of minor tidal inundation.  Tides still running 3' above predicted at 940A.  Should make about 8' MLLW there. Not sure what OKX has but follow what ever they have including the datums they select. 

Far Rockaway has been inundated with coastal flooding, this is a major noreaster!

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27 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 0.42" here so far. Maybe we get a quarter inch more this afternoon into tonight? At least it's enough to give the vegetable garden a watering, but not nearly enough to bust the drought. I was hoping we'd get a lot more from this storm, but of course the signs were there that the heavier amounts would be to the south and east. 

Rain seems to be struggling making it past Monmouth and ocean but models have a bit more through tonight so we'll see

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29 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 0.42" here so far. Maybe we get a quarter inch more this afternoon into tonight? At least it's enough to give the vegetable garden a watering, but not nearly enough to bust the drought. I was hoping we'd get a lot more from this storm, but of course the signs were there that the heavier amounts would be to the south and east. 

And you have 4x more rain than I've gotten only 13 miles away as the crow flies.  But since I had a freeze, my garden is done, and this doesn't bother me one bit.  

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18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rain seems to be struggling making it past Monmouth and ocean but models have a bit more through tonight so we'll see

frictional convergence is enhancing the rain on the coast with subsidence inland

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