OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[psv88]

2.86” storm total. 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

It may be very difficult to define how much extra damage is caused by the sea level rise.  What astonishes me, is that the 6 to 10 inches in sea level rise over the last 100 years is not uniform.  I think most of us originally learned that sea level is uniform, and all bodies of water, including landlocked ones, seek to reach sea level.  So a lot would depend on local topography and man made containment.  I'm sure the west coast, with it's pronounced sea bottom drop off, has much different impacts on flooding than the shallow east coast sea bed.  First we woud have to explore the generalalities of coastlines, then focus on specific local impacts the sea level rise would have on flooding and beach erosion.  

Yes indeed, I think the Gulf is number 1 in sea level rise (some islands already underwater off of the La coast), the east coast is number 2 in sea level rise and the west coast lags behind at number 3.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

0.37 at my station in Wantage of far nw NJ but the CoCoRaHs 3 day reports and NYS Mesonet show the extent of 1.5-3" that covered, in my estimation about 60-65% of our subforum area with amounts ranging from over 4" in Brick NJ to less than 0.4" parts of western NJ. Also added color coded amounts for the northeast USA, showing the focus of biggest amounts se MA-Cape Cod.

Overall, sizable moderate impact, even where amounts less than 1" where intermittent power outages occurred (brief eddy transfer [Richardson #] taking down relative dead wood).  Interior eddy downward momentum transfer likely due to fairly strong easterly flow at the top of the boundary layer--always difficult to predict where these spots will occur.

If you wish, check back on the WPC 5 day outlook... added below. Actually a little shy up by I84-SNE and I do think this was a one or two year recurrence interval for parts of the coast. ESPECIALLY October NON-Tropical at neap tide.   Others chime in with factual info. 

Please add on OKX and PHI summaries when they arrive.  Thank you.

2.2 around here and it looks like 0.56 at my other location (on the left edge of the map so I'm not sure if it's 0.56 or 0.36 lol)

 

[wdrag]

ARI: Averate Return Interval.  If anyone does analysis for October mdt coastal flooding events 5 day MODELED 2-3" rain and G40-60MPH, NON TROPICAL... let it rip.  I've seen comparisons to tropical related or winter related. Nothing straight up.

I'll check back late today.

 

Thanks for your participation and while not worst case D5 outlooked scenario, and an imperfect nor'easter, most will have benefitted from outdoor cancellations and preparations as well as needed rain. 

 

 

[winterwx21]

0.51" storm total here. Not enough to put a dent in the drought unfortunately. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

According to NWS, Moses had a wind gust of 60 early Monday morning and Eaton’s Neck had a 57mph gust around the same time but most of the strongest gusts were in the 40-50mph range, even the beaches. JFK’s was 44mph 

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/286-2025/PNSOKX/74b10c34b8e31e4cc95546e8eacf7578

 

still gusting in the 25-30mph range by me, but they are getting fewer and further between as the morning progresses. 

FRG 48, ISP 49 for the highest airport readings. These gusts were right in line with forecasts. 
 

FYI that Eatons Neck station is raised, it’s like 90 feet or something like that 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nor’easters have been few and far between in recent years. This was our first one in quite some time. It’s the only time all year that we had NE gusts over 45 mph at place like LGA. All the other days with winds gusts over 45 came from a more westerly component. 

We just had 2 nor'easters this past spring (April 11-12 and May 21-22).

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We just had 2 nor'easters this past spring (April 11-12 and May 21-22).

Those spring nor’easter events were weak compared to what we more regularly got in the past. Most of our storms in recent years have been cutters and huggers. It’s why this was the first 45+ mph gust of the year from the northeast at LGA. All the other 45+ mph gusts this year were more westerly.

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

FRG 48, ISP 49 for the highest airport readings. These gusts were right in line with forecasts. 
 

FYI that Eatons Neck station is raised, it’s like 90 feet or something like that 

Yeah, I’ve noticed Eatons Neck often gets the highest gusts in these types of storms and the summer T-storms.  

[FPizz]

I'm not familiar with specific area's and coastal flooding.  Did any area's flood that typically don't in these type of set-ups?  On the news and social media, they always talk about the same areas it seems, so am wondering.

[guinness77]

The one Nor’easter I’ll never forget was in March of 2010. We were fairly new home owners at the time so I had to officially worry about my property for one of the first times and just remember the howling of the winds and trees down in the area. Iirc, we lost power from Saturday afternoon until some time the next day. I want to say we had some 70mph gusts that evening.  

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm not familiar with specific area's and coastal flooding.  Did any area's flood that typically don't in these type of set-ups?  On the news and social media, they always talk about the same areas it seems, so am wondering.

No, it’s always the same areas. I can’t imagine a weather event which would cause flooding in less flood prone areas, other than a major major storm or hurricane. maybe wind direction?

But even so, low elevation is low elevation…nothing is going to change the elevation of areas from one storm to the next. 
 

From a wind perspective this was a moderate nor’easter. From a rain perspective it was on the high end out here, with Suffolk getting 2-3+”. 

[Franklin0529]

The noreaster in 92 was gnarly living on Sandy hook bay/ Shrewsbury River. I'm from a tiny beach town named Highlands. Right across the bridge from sandy hook national park. Water was 6' deep through the whole town with 70 mph winds

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No, it’s always the same areas. I can’t imagine a weather event which would cause flooding in less flood prone areas, other than a major major storm or hurricane. maybe wind direction?

But even so, low elevation is low elevation…nothing is going to change the elevation of areas from one storm to the next. 
 

From a wind perspective this was a moderate nor’easter. From a rain perspective it was on the high end out here, with Suffolk getting 2-3+”. 

Thank you!

[eduggs]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't matter if it's below the predictions, the fact is we had water all the way into parking lots and on Central Avenue in Far Rockaway and major coastal flooding all the way to Lindenhurst.  I've only seen this in the largest noreasters we had in the 1990s.  One woman also died in Manhattan (she got hit in the head with a solar panel that came flying off during the high winds) and thousands of power outages here on Long Island as well as many trees down.  60 MPH winds which are pretty strong for a noreaster.

 

I think there's an issue regarding how "major flooding" is defined. If a road is inundated that doesn't normally flood, it's hard not to describe that as major flooding. But that doesn't necessarily match up with USGS statistical data and graphics. Although I'm not sure how minor, moderate, and major coastal flooding are defined.

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The noreaster in 92 was gnarly living on Sandy hook bay/ Shrewsbury River. I'm from a tiny beach town named Highlands. Right across the bridge from sandy hook national park. Water was 6' deep through the whole town with 70 mph winds

yep massive LI sound flooding here with that storm

[psv88]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep massive LI sound flooding here with that storm

That I believe is the storm that busted up dune road in west Hampton and created a new inlet. I think there were 15 foot waves in the sound. Wild 

[psv88]

The winds from December 92:

58 at central park

77 at LGA

86 at Montauk

90 in wildwood NJ

about sandy levels…

[bluewave]

Major, moderate, and minor all describe specific benchmarks for coastal flooding. Minor and moderate coastal flooding events usually result in only street flooding and beach erosion.

This event was at the moderate benchmark for coastal flooding at places like Sandy Hook and Freeport. The water level reached near the 8 ft moderate level at Sandy Hook.

Low end major coastal flooding by a few inches usually means that the water can come up into peoples yards or lawns but not into the first floor of their house in the lowest lying coastal zones. This was the case along the GSB with this event.

Once major coastal flooding gets around .75 to 1.5 feet above the major threshold, then flooding can come into the first floors of houses. This is what occurred with the 1992 Nor’easter and Hurricane Irene.

Sandy was around  4.5” higher than December 1992 and Irene leading to the historic flooding in places which haven’t flooded in modern times. It was 5.7” above the major coastal flooding threshold at Sandy Hook reaching the 14.4” level. 

Sandy Hook has the most extensive list of coastal flooding records in area

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/middle.pdf

 

 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That I believe is the storm that busted up dune road in west Hampton and created a new inlet. I think there were 15 foot waves in the sound. Wild 

2-3 days of east winds piled the water into the western sound.  I think the storm stalled near ACY for awhile

[guinness77]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That I believe is the storm that busted up dune road in west Hampton and created a new inlet. I think there were 15 foot waves in the sound. Wild 

Damn, you just brought me back. I was 15 and my mom has always liked looking at the houses on Dune Rd and we drove out there a few days after that storm and we actually got turned around by the authorities because it was impassable. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Major, moderate, and minor all describe specific benchmarks for coastal flooding. Minor and moderate coastal flooding events usually result in only street flooding and beach erosion.

This event was at the moderate benchmark for coastal flooding at places like Sandy Hook and Freeport. The water level reached near the 8 ft moderate level at Sandy Hook.

Low end major coastal flooding by a few inches usually means that the water can come up into peoples yards or lawns but not into the first floor of their house in the lowest lying coastal zones. This was the case along the GSB with this event.

Once major coastal flooding gets around .75 to 1.5 feet above the major threshold, then flooding can come into the first floors of houses. This is what occurred with the 1992 Nor’easter and Hurricane Irene.

Sandy was around  4.5” higher than December 1992 and Irene leading to the historic flooding in places which haven’t flooded in modern times. It was 5.7” above the major coastal flooding threshold at Sandy Hook reaching the 14.4” level. 

Sandy Hook has the most extensive list of coastal flooding records in area

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/middle.pdf

 

 

14.4 was estimated, Sandy was just so historic it’s hard to view any storm as severe after that one

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

14.4 was estimated, Sandy was just so historic it’s hard to view any storm as severe after that one

1938 on Long Island was probably worse than Sandy. So figure Sandy is a 1/100 year event. We probably won’t see another comparable event in our lifetimes. 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

14.4 was estimated, Sandy was just so historic it’s hard to view any storm as severe after that one

I moved out of Long Beach earlier in the year before Sandy arrived. That storm was in a class by itself. The tide level was around 4 feet higher with larger waves than in the 92 Nor’easter and Irene. The Lincoln Blvd section of the boardwalk in this video collapsed shortly after the power went out and the guy had to stop recording. 
 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I moved out of Long Beach earlier in the year before Sandy arrived. That storm was in a class by itself. The tide level was around 4 feet higher with larger waves than in the 92 Nor’easter and Irene. The Lincoln Blvd section of the boardwalk in this video collapsed shortly after the power went out and the guy had to stop recording. 
 

 

I was living in seaford at the time. 
 

drove down there after the storm and saw the destroyed boardwalk 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I was living in seaford at the time. 
 

drove down there after the storm and saw the destroyed boardwalk 

Yeah, I drove back to Long two days after Sandy. Came down Austin Blvd in Island Park and there were still boats washed up in the road around the Texas Car Wash.

Luckily my old house was on one of the highest parts of the barrier island. So the water stopped a few inches from coming over my top step.

But the lowest areas like the West End had water up to 4-5 feet deep in people’s houses. Even if you lived in a higher up level of the apartment buildings and condos, there was no water or sewer for two weeks after the storm.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

1938 on Long Island was probably worse than Sandy. So figure Sandy is a 1/100 year event. We probably won’t see another comparable event in our lifetimes. 

Shinnecock inlet was made by that hurricane. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

The noreaster in 92 was gnarly living on Sandy hook bay/ Shrewsbury River. I'm from a tiny beach town named Highlands. Right across the bridge from sandy hook national park. Water was 6' deep through the whole town with 70 mph winds

it was my all time favorite, and why noreasters belong in December not October lol

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those spring nor’easter events were weak compared to what we more regularly got in the past. Most of our storms in recent years have been cutters and huggers. It’s why this was the first 45+ mph gust of the year from the northeast at LGA. All the other 45+ mph gusts this year were more westerly.

Either way we could have waited two more months instead of getting one in October lol

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, guinness77 said:

The one Nor’easter I’ll never forget was in March of 2010. We were fairly new home owners at the time so I had to officially worry about my property for one of the first times and just remember the howling of the winds and trees down in the area. Iirc, we lost power from Saturday afternoon until some time the next day. I want to say we had some 70mph gusts that evening.  

The ironic thing about that season is with all the snow we got the most intense storm was an all rain noreaster in March lol