October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

The 06z Euro Ensemble is a tick east, but it's very likely just noise.

[bncho]

6z GFS is just brutal.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

I would honestly feel better if this midwest shortwave was dropping further west. We're really living on the edge here for the capture.

[wxmeddler]

Did some digging this morning. Obviously the dynamic models are struggling with the evolution of the s/w cutoff low breaking from the main stream. The lack of upper air data up that way doesn't help. The main factor in east/west placement of the precip is how far east/west the s/w stalls out. GFS places it further west near Sandusky, while the Euro has it towards Erie/Buffalo. This matters as the main precip hit is following the 700mb frontogenic forcing in the lead-up to the two cutoff's merging. There is some correlated jet coupling going on too.

[AlexD1990]

Are we going to create a separate thread for this? Seems like it's going to probably have legitimate impacts at least along the coast.

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[bncho]

9 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Are we going to create a separate thread for this? Seems like it's going to probably have legitimate impacts at least along the coast.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

finally a storm thread! we're really getting warmed up for winter.

[WxUSAF]

Someone can do a thread if people want that

[dailylurker]

Gfs would be 1-2" feet east of DC while Leesburg struggles to get 3". Book this setup for January lol. Gfs insists dry areas stay dry while the swampy lowlands continue to stay swampy. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

I hope it verifies for you because you can certainly use the rain.  Me, no big deal as the growing season is over and the farmers can certainly use dry ground to harvest crops.

I watch these indexes daily. All too often, 4 inches verifies to less than an inch at 5 - 7 days. A couple months ago 5 inches verified to .30".  If we had received 50% of the 5 - 7 day predicted rainfall during the past 3 months we would not be in moderate to severe drought now.

This forecast does give support to my admonition a few weeks ago about autumn tendencies often being a harbinger of the winter snowfall pattern. 77-78 is an excellent example.  Storms from the south are cold storms on the north and west perimeter. 

 

This area is actually in decent shape. Had slightly above avg rain last month and around 0.4" from the event yesterday. It's places further west that really need the rain.

[yoda]

12z GFS is quite rainy.  Looks pretty windy as well on the Bay and Potomac 

[yoda]

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS is quite rainy.  Looks pretty windy as well on the Bay and Potomac 

Definitely a big push west. Now it looks fun. It's been since last January since my area has seen anything interesting besides localized thunderstorms in July.

[yoda]

I see a 30kt barb at DCA... looks like storm force winds on the Bay

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS is a big hit, need the Euro to come in like that then we can get excited.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ICON also has widespread heavy rain east of the mountains.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Everything looks pretty similar with the GFS and Euro at 500h but the Euro has a dual low setup at the surface and picks the wrong one (if you want rain) and GFS is more consolidated.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS: Sunday potentially a real windy, raw, day.  A lot more beach erosion as well.

[dailylurker]

Thread started

[Brasiluvsnow]

timing along with everything else still suspect but will this effect Commanders/ Ravens Monday night at 8 ?