October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wxmeddler]

So some version of this is really happening huh. Dang, what a weird thing this is gonna turn out to be.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormy said:

That's a joke.................................  5 day QPF changes every 12 hrs.

Sure it can change............................... But its only a "joke" because it doesn't depict what you want to see in your yard. That's why you made this whiny post.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

So some version of this is really happening huh. Dang, what a weird thing this is gonna turn out to be.

Remember, the Euro nailed Sandy. Therefore it's always right.

[wxmeddler]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Remember, the Euro nailed Sandy. Therefore it's always right.

GFS has at least stuck to it's guns.   And we can never forget that it did, yes.

[IronTy]

45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Remember, the Euro nailed Sandy. Therefore it's always right.

JB nailed Sandy first, just ask him.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

Let's hope we get some Atmospheric Memory for the winter.

I mean considering that we just finished a torch…

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean considering that we just finished a torch…

I'll take my chances with a torch in September and then a couple coastals in October. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON does not phase and is less intense/ more offshore.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS ticked west.

[GATECH]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS ticked west.

If only this was winter…could you imagine the JI meltdown where he gets 1.9” of snow and south and east gets 2’-3’…now that would be entertainment!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS; 6 members with significant rain west of 95.  More than 12Z.

[Kevin Reilly]

21 minutes ago, GATECH said:

If only this was winter…could you imagine the JI meltdown where he gets 1.9” of snow and south and east gets 2’-3’…now that would be entertainment!

I wonder if we get a “Folks”!!!!

[bncho]

euro ensemble gives us 30-40% for 2+" QPF!!

[bncho]

this is probably the most active i've seen this place since march 2025

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI is a nothing burger west of the Bay.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS holds (first picture), its global is a tick east and less intense overall.

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, GATECH said:

If only this was winter…could you imagine the JI meltdown where he gets 1.9” of snow and south and east gets 2’-3’…now that would be entertainment!

Ji had a meltdown because I got caught by a red light yesterday and he doesn't even know me.

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS holds (first picture), its global is a tick east and less intense overall.

waiting for the weenies to call this the feb 20 redux becuase of this noise

[Eskimo Joe]

IMO, if we can make it inside HR90 and this thing has de-amplified, then this is legit. That's my go/no go threshold.

[bncho]

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs! 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs! 

Don't get in the habit, lolol

[IronTy]

I'm just taking all those model posts and applying a mental kuchera to them to pretend they're snow.  Getting my practice in before it really counts.  

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON ticked west again...so did GFS

[Kevin Reilly]

0z Model runs are trouble up and down the East Coast Outer Banks to North Jersey.

[midatlanticweather]

Gfs ticks east with heavier rain shield. I think it is under doing the western extent of rain but that is based on nor'easter thoughts from winter. Still a close line between the heavier rain and those that get less. Rain is now certain for most or all the area

[WxUSAF]

Weirdly (?) euro AI keeps drifting east even as the traditional guidance is starting to line up with the details. 

[stormy]

14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sure it can change............................... But its only a "joke" because it doesn't depict what you want to see in your yard. That's why you made this whiny post.

I hope it verifies for you because you can certainly use the rain.  Me, no big deal as the growing season is over and the farmers can certainly use dry ground to harvest crops.

I watch these indexes daily. All too often, 4 inches verifies to less than an inch at 5 - 7 days. A couple months ago 5 inches verified to .30".  If we had received 50% of the 5 - 7 day predicted rainfall during the past 3 months we would not be in moderate to severe drought now.

This forecast does give support to my admonition a few weeks ago about autumn tendencies often being a harbinger of the winter snowfall pattern. 77-78 is an excellent example.  Storms from the south are cold storms on the north and west perimeter. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Yay?

 

 

[anotherman]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yay?

 

 

Too cold, too early is never a good sign.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6Z euro basically whiffs us on the coastal.