October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wxmeddler]

So some version of this is really happening huh. Dang, what a weird thing this is gonna turn out to be.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormy said:

That's a joke.................................  5 day QPF changes every 12 hrs.

Sure it can change............................... But its only a "joke" because it doesn't depict what you want to see in your yard. That's why you made this whiny post.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

So some version of this is really happening huh. Dang, what a weird thing this is gonna turn out to be.

Remember, the Euro nailed Sandy. Therefore it's always right.

[wxmeddler]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Remember, the Euro nailed Sandy. Therefore it's always right.

GFS has at least stuck to it's guns.   And we can never forget that it did, yes.

[IronTy]

45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Remember, the Euro nailed Sandy. Therefore it's always right.

JB nailed Sandy first, just ask him.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

Let's hope we get some Atmospheric Memory for the winter.

I mean considering that we just finished a torch…

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean considering that we just finished a torch…

I'll take my chances with a torch in September and then a couple coastals in October. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON does not phase and is less intense/ more offshore.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS ticked west.

[GATECH]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS ticked west.

If only this was winter…could you imagine the JI meltdown where he gets 1.9” of snow and south and east gets 2’-3’…now that would be entertainment!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS; 6 members with significant rain west of 95.  More than 12Z.

[Kevin Reilly]

21 minutes ago, GATECH said:

If only this was winter…could you imagine the JI meltdown where he gets 1.9” of snow and south and east gets 2’-3’…now that would be entertainment!

I wonder if we get a “Folks”!!!!

[bncho]

euro ensemble gives us 30-40% for 2+" QPF!!

[bncho]

this is probably the most active i've seen this place since march 2025

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI is a nothing burger west of the Bay.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS holds (first picture), its global is a tick east and less intense overall.

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, GATECH said:

If only this was winter…could you imagine the JI meltdown where he gets 1.9” of snow and south and east gets 2’-3’…now that would be entertainment!

Ji had a meltdown because I got caught by a red light yesterday and he doesn't even know me.

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS holds (first picture), its global is a tick east and less intense overall.

waiting for the weenies to call this the feb 20 redux becuase of this noise

[Eskimo Joe]

IMO, if we can make it inside HR90 and this thing has de-amplified, then this is legit. That's my go/no go threshold.

[bncho]

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs! 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs! 

Don't get in the habit, lolol

[IronTy]

I'm just taking all those model posts and applying a mental kuchera to them to pretend they're snow.  Getting my practice in before it really counts.  

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON ticked west again...so did GFS

[Kevin Reilly]

0z Model runs are trouble up and down the East Coast Outer Banks to North Jersey.