WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z ICON bring a soaking 1.5" - 2.5" of rainfall to just about the entire subforum starting late in the weekend. 6z euro was close to the area. Much farther north than 0z. 12z gfs soaks the eastern parts of the area, but brutal gradient for DC and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro was close to the area. Much farther north than 0z. 12z gfs soaks the eastern parts of the area, but brutal gradient for DC and points west. Then the coastal just meanders south towards Florida. Wacky evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 05:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:46 PM I'm hugging the ICON for the upcoming storm. It nailed the track of the last coastal. (WB 12Z: about .25 is for Wed.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM WB 12Z EURO...looks like ICON. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 06:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:25 PM 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO...looks like ICON. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 06:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:34 PM WB 12Z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 06:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:38 PM Big jump on the euro suite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 06:47 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:47 PM Man if that primary would be diving into Kentucky instead of across Michigan this storm would probably dump a ton of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1975729785394635218?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man if that primary would be diving into Kentucky instead of across Michigan this storm would probably dump a ton of snow Change one word and this is a winter post verbatim, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago We basically want the northern energy to capture the southern low as soon as possible. That keeps the pinwheeling cutoff mostly over land and drenches us. If the capture happens too late or the whole longwave pattern shifts a bit east, we may be mostly dry. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago No matter the track, this is probably really impactful at the coast. Will leave it to you all to start a thread (or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago The GFS looks a little more like the Euro this run. Brutal cutoff DC/NW but hits the lowlands and NE MD pretty good with 2-3" of rain and strong winds. Man.. if it was winter JI would be melting down lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago WB 12Z Day 5 rain totals for the globals. ICON (shifted back west); GFS still DC eastward; Canadian is Day 6 because it is slower; AI a tick west of 6Z and also slower like Canadian so also Day 6.; EURO is a solid hit for everyone and would cause flooding on the shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago WB 12Z ICON upper level low track is much further SE and stronger than the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago WB 12Z GEFS; hug P24 if you are west of 95; 3% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago WB 12z EURO at Day 5; old-fashioned nor'easter.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago WB 12Z EPS supports the global at Day 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12z EURO at Day 5; old-fashioned nor'easter.... Note to our younger members - we haven't had one in so long you might not know what one of these is. We used to get these from time to time and generally involves wind and rain/snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Ok, just to start getting warmed up for winter, some WB 12Z EPS probability maps: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Let's hope we get some Atmospheric Memory for the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: Let's hope we get some Atmospheric Memory for the winter. I’m just hoping that we get some atmospheric forgetfulness before the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Wpc. Has the coastal nearly stationary( aside from an occasional wobble) for 3 days lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Latest discussion from NWS Sterling. Kudos to them for working without pay during the suspension of operations. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A coastal low pressure system continues to bring plenty of uncertainty to the forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Synoptically, we will remain in a split flow pattern caught between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Surface high pressure will gradually push east from southern New England into the western Atlantic through the weekend while an area of low pressure pushes north along a stalled boundary at the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, closed low pressure looks to dig south from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the weekend timeframe. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to exhibit large spread when it comes to how these features interact, although some consistency has been noted in the latest 12z solutions. The biggest question overall is to how far south the closed low feature digs into the region and its overall placement to interact with the incoming coastal low. The 12z EPS continues to favor a solution where the cutoff low pressure system has some interaction with the incumbent shortwave/cutoff low over the Northeast. The 12z GEFS also favors some interaction between the cutoff low and coastal low, especially toward the back half of the weekend into early next week. Both solutions suggest increasing rain chances late Saturday into Sunday, especially in locations east of the Blue Ridge and toward the I-95 corridor. Some shower activity may push toward the mountains, but is highly dependent on the timing/placement of the coastal feature and interaction with the closed low/shortwave feature which looks to pass just over/north of the region. Either way, this is a highly volatile forecast with many moving parts that will have to be closely monitored. A blend of the solutions would suggest increased cloud cover, seasonable temperatures, and blustery conditions (especially by the waters) for the upcoming weekend ahead. Precipitation chances look to increase from the southeast Saturday afternoon and evening as the influence of high pressure kicks further into the western Atlantic, and coastal low pressure moves toward the Carolinas. Rain chances will continue to increase for all locations with an emphasis for those east of US-15 Sunday into Monday as low pressure lifts up toward the Delmarva, and the shortwave trough/cutoff low nears. Rain chances will decrease Tuesday as the cutoff low/shortwave trough pushes east, and the coastal low retrogrades back south toward the Carolinas. High pressure returns thereafter for the middle part of next week. Persistent east to northeasterly flow will lead to below normal temperatures through early next week. Highs should remain in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall chances are generally confined to areas along and east of I-95, and generally capped at 30 to 50 percent. There is certainly room for this to change based on the track of the coastal feature. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph over land Sunday with gale gusts possible over the waters. Stay tuned and check back at weather.gov/lwx for the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Latest Mount Holly AFD- A potentially significant coastal storm looks to be on the horizon Sunday through Monday. However, the forecast remains uncertain and significant changes could come as we get closer. Main impacts will be tidal flooding, strong marine winds (and potentially on land if the system tracks closer), and heavy rain. Things start to go downhill on Saturday Night as a coastal low approaches from the south. Rain is expected to overspread the region, with the heaviest near the coastline, while areas in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos/northern NJ likely stay dry through the night. Winds begin to increase, especially over the water and along the immediate coastline with gusts getting near 40 MPH by daybreak. Sunday through Monday will be when our area likely experiences the brunt of the impacts from the coastal storm. If the current track holds and the coastal storm does end up just offshore, strong winds are expected, upwards of 45-55 MPH+ on the coast Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night, with the potential for these strong winds to continue well into Monday. Gusts upward of 30-40 MPH will extend several miles inland to about the I-95 corridor. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected, and a SLIGHT (2/4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. We are not fully in the QPF period yet, but some of the WPC longer-range rainfall products suggest 2-4+ inches of rain within the SLGT risk, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. NBM Probability of 2+ inches of rain for New Jersey and Delmarva was about 30-40%, which is actually quite high being 5-6 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WPC QPF through day 5- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast for Sunday-Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: WPC QPF Forecast- That's a joke................................. 5 day QPF changes every 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro dumps on us pretty good Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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