Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,282
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

October Medium/Long Range Discussion


Eskimo Joe
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z ICON bring a soaking 1.5" - 2.5" of rainfall to just about the entire subforum starting late in the weekend.

6z euro was close to the area. Much farther north than 0z. 12z gfs soaks the eastern parts of the area, but brutal gradient for DC and points west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WB 12Z Day 5 rain totals for the globals.  ICON (shifted back west); GFS still DC eastward; Canadian is Day 6 because it is slower; AI a tick west of 6Z and also slower like Canadian so also Day 6.; EURO is a solid hit for everyone and would cause flooding on the shore.

IMG_6399.png

IMG_6400.png

IMG_6405.png

IMG_6407.png

IMG_6408.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest discussion from NWS Sterling.  Kudos to them for working without pay during the suspension of operations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A coastal low pressure system continues to bring plenty of
uncertainty to the forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next
week. Synoptically, we will remain in a split flow pattern
caught between the northern and southern branches of the jet
stream. Surface high pressure will gradually push east from
southern New England into the western Atlantic through the
weekend while an area of low pressure pushes north along a
stalled boundary at the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, closed
low pressure looks to dig south from the Great Lakes/Ohio River
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the weekend timeframe.
Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to exhibit
large spread when it comes to how these features interact,
although some consistency has been noted in the latest 12z
solutions. The biggest question overall is to how far south the
closed low feature digs into the region and its overall
placement to interact with the incoming coastal low.

The 12z EPS continues to favor a solution where the cutoff low
pressure system has some interaction with the incumbent
shortwave/cutoff low over the Northeast. The 12z GEFS also favors
some interaction between the cutoff low and coastal low, especially
toward the back half of the weekend into early next week. Both
solutions suggest increasing rain chances late Saturday into
Sunday, especially in locations east of the Blue Ridge and
toward the I-95 corridor. Some shower activity may push toward
the mountains, but is highly dependent on the timing/placement
of the coastal feature and interaction with the closed
low/shortwave feature which looks to pass just over/north of the
region. Either way, this is a highly volatile forecast with
many moving parts that will have to be closely monitored. A
blend of the solutions would suggest increased cloud cover,
seasonable temperatures, and blustery conditions (especially by
the waters) for the upcoming weekend ahead. Precipitation
chances look to increase from the southeast Saturday afternoon
and evening as the influence of high pressure kicks further into
the western Atlantic, and coastal low pressure moves toward the
Carolinas. Rain chances will continue to increase for all
locations with an emphasis for those east of US-15 Sunday into
Monday as low pressure lifts up toward the Delmarva, and the
shortwave trough/cutoff low nears. Rain chances will decrease
Tuesday as the cutoff low/shortwave trough pushes east, and the
coastal low retrogrades back south toward the Carolinas. High
pressure returns thereafter for the middle part of next week.

Persistent east to northeasterly flow will lead to below normal
temperatures through early next week. Highs should remain in the 60s
with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall chances are
generally confined to areas along and east of I-95, and generally
capped at 30 to 50 percent. There is certainly room for this to
change based on the track of the coastal feature. Expect wind gusts
of 20 to 25 mph over land Sunday with gale gusts possible over
the waters. Stay tuned and check back at weather.gov/lwx for the
latest.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest Mount Holly AFD-

A potentially significant coastal storm looks to be on the horizon Sunday through Monday. However, the forecast remains uncertain and significant changes could come as we get closer. Main impacts will be tidal flooding, strong marine winds (and potentially on land if the system tracks closer), and heavy rain. Things start to go downhill on Saturday Night as a coastal low approaches from the south. Rain is expected to overspread the region, with the heaviest near the coastline, while areas in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos/northern NJ likely stay dry through the night. Winds begin to increase, especially over the water and along the immediate coastline with gusts getting near 40 MPH by daybreak. Sunday through Monday will be when our area likely experiences the brunt of the impacts from the coastal storm. If the current track holds and the coastal storm does end up just offshore, strong winds are expected, upwards of 45-55 MPH+ on the coast Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night, with the potential for these strong winds to continue well into Monday. Gusts upward of 30-40 MPH will extend several miles inland to about the I-95 corridor. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected, and a SLIGHT (2/4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. We are not fully in the QPF period yet, but some of the WPC longer-range rainfall products suggest 2-4+ inches of rain within the SLGT risk, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. NBM Probability of 2+ inches of rain for New Jersey and Delmarva was about 30-40%, which is actually quite high being 5-6 days out.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...