October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[IrishRob17]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Thank you!

Traffic north of the Tappan Zee is always terrible, best to stay south of that line...

63 degrees currently and the looks to be a nice sunset setting up.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Almost made it to 70, 69 my high.

it will be in the 70s tomorrow, it was 68 here today

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will end on a very mild note. Temperatures will reach upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday.

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +4.38 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.575 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[MJO812]

Cold air is building. Patience. Colder pattern develops in the 1st week of November with the NAO and AO dropping.

[psv88]

66.8 today 

[FPizz]

5 hours ago, Sundog said:

Thank you!

Im not familiar with the towns, but 287 north of route 80 was beautiful on Thursday driving to Pearl River, NY.  Im sure some of the state parks in NNJ are probably popping nicely.  

[psv88]

Some nice color out in some of the county parks around here. The lower lying swampy areas have some really nice color, such as Caleb Smith state park and blydeburgh county park

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Some nice color out in some of the county parks around here. The lower lying swampy areas have some really nice color, such as Caleb Smith state park and blydeburgh county park

Blydenburgh was beautiful Friday afternoon.  It's wild watching how fast the brush has taken over the lake bed.

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Blydenburgh was beautiful Friday afternoon.  It's wild watching how fast the brush has taken over the lake bed.

Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature