October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s really interesting how we also had great 11 year runs for snowfall in December and March also. OCT-NOV 2008 to 2018…DEC 2000 to 2010….MAR 2009 to 2019.

Following each of those runs it was like someone shutting off a switch during the respective months.

OCT and NOV haven’t featured any early season snows since 2018.

Our last historic December snowstorm was Boxing Day in 2010. Interior sections near BGM in 2020 got their historic December snowstorm near 40” since the storm hugged the coast too close near ACY for us to get the really heavy totals. Then the big cutter a week later on Christmas with all the damage and flooding at the ski resorts.

Then our least really big March with 30” on Long Island was 2018 and some areas did well in March 2019. Since then coastal sections have had nearly no March snow in the last 6 years. 

Many parts of the lower Hudson Valley specifically Orange County had 40-50 inches of snow in March 2018. Add the 5-6 in early April and that was a very memorable period. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  81 (1963)
NYC: 82 (1963)
LGA: 79 (1963)
JFK: 78 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1936)
NYC: 28 (1936)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 31 (1976)


Historical:

 

1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

 

1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1943: Coastal storm ends drought, rains on 25th - 28th DC had 3.41 inches of rain and Baltimore got 5.00 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)  The low temperature of 21 °F is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Richmond in October. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: Thousands of homes in southern and central Texas were without power after strong storms dumped as much as a foot of rain. The Frio, Guadalupe, and Llano rivers spilled their banks, making roads impassable and stranding some motorists. The Llano crested at 30 feet -- 18 feet above flood stage -- and Llano County sheriff's deputies were evacuating homes downriver. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, causing an outbreak of severe weather. An F0 tornado touched down in Hainesport, NJ, killing one person. This was the first tornado fatality in Burlington County, NJ history both in modern tornado records kept since 1950, and in reliable unofficial records extending back into the 1700s. The tornado cut a path 1/2 mile long and 30 yards wide. Although the tornado was F0, it is considered a significant tornado, usually F2 or greater, because of the fatality. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. 

2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. Marine boats sank, four homes destroyed, and part of a hospital roof collapsed. Hundreds of trees and power lines were down, but fortunately there were no serious injuries. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

 

[Picard]

Low of 21 in Walpack.  Low 28 at home in Sparta.  Chilly morning.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Many parts of the lower Hudson Valley specifically Orange County had 40-50 inches of snow in March 2018. Add the 5-6 in early April and that was a very memorable period. 

Yeah, that was an amazing late season snowfall pattern. Islip had 36.5” of snow from 3-7-18 to 4-2-18. But Islip has only had a total of 27.6” during 22-23, 23-24, and 24-25 combined.

[STORMANLI]

33°

First Frost

[FPizz]

28.  Had to scrape the windshield this morning for the first time.

[ForestHillWx]

29 here, patchy frost. Another beautiful day on tap. 

[nycwinter]

it was cold enough to wear winter gloves my hands were freezing..

[wthrmn654]

42 coldest yet

[WestBabylonWeather]

Such a clear day. Saw the city skyline coming north from Robert Moses. Rare that happens. 

[winterwx21]

Low temp of 34 here this morning. A little frost, but those pole lima beans in the garden are amazing. They still look fine. I'll still be picking more over the next week. I'm thinking around November 4th is when the vegetable garden will finally be killed. 

[Sundog]

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

It's basically a cutter now-a slug of heavy rain then dryslot

[steve392]

Gorgeous day out.  Slight chill in the air.  Feels good. 

[Picard]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

Dryslots, sharp cutoffs, or too far north and west.  It's always at least one of those three.  May this time be different?
Meanwhile, holy effing Melissa.

[forkyfork]

remember when blocks actually blocked things

[bluewave]

Snowfall season starting at the higher elevations with some still great fall foliage even in the more northerly spots that are just past the peak.

 

 

[FPizz]

In my way to work, North NJ up 287 wasnt nearly as good this year compared to last year.  Dull peak that lasted maybe 3-4 days it seemed.  I was looking forward to seeing it this year after last years awesome colors.

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

North Atlantic SSTs force every “block” south which just becomes a mega SE ridge which produces cutters

[donsutherland1]

A strong NAO blocking regime is in place and will persist into early November. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. 

Tomorrow will be another cool day. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 50s across much of the region. Many locations outside of New York City will again see readings start in the 30s. Hard freezes are again likely well north and west of New York City.

The unseasonably cool weather will continue through at least the middle of the week. Rain will likely arrive Wednesday night or Thursday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely late Wednesday night through Friday. There remains uncertainty about the area of heaviest rainfall. The storm will be followed by a continuation of cool weather.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +23.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.351 today. The NAO was -1.497.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.2° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

In my way to work, North NJ up 287 wasnt nearly as good this year compared to last year.  Dull peak that lasted maybe 3-4 days it seemed.  I was looking forward to seeing it this year after last years awesome colors.

Yeah the fall foliage isn't nearly as nice as usual this year. Obviously the drought had a very negative effect. A shame that we went so dry for months after the tremendous flooding in mid July. We just don't get normal rainfall anymore -- it's either way too much or not nearly enough.