October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude that isn't out of the box thinking. It is not scientifically accurate or even remotely a good idea. Just so we are clear I have earned a Masters in environmental remediation and PhD in vector-borne diseases and published in both these fields. So no, I am not an uncreative robot. As for conventional *ideas* you haven't the slightest clue as to what we scientists have actually done to fix these issues. Did you know we have tried rather unconventional ways of reducing tick burdens throughout Long Island and the Hudson Valley? We have tried to have mice build nesting material made with insecticide in the threads. We have tried treating deer in the fall to reduce adult tick mating. We are thinking outside the box using science. 

Humans LOVE living by water and water is vitally important, but complaining about the smell of a marsh that was literally there for hundreds of thousands of years is insane. The vast majority of marshlands exist in high human density areas. The US has lost over 50% of its wetlands to drainage and development since 1950. You make an awful lot of assumptions about people yourself. I literally live in The Great Swamp of NY. The used to call children from Patterson swamp creatures. I grew up spending summers with my grandparents in East Lyme, CT, in a marsh. Also the town where Lyme disease was officially discovered and why it is Lyme disease and not Lime disease. Did you know that marshes and swamps rival tropical rainforests for biological productivity? Swamps reduce pollution and reduce disease burden. Drained wetlands turn into some of our least productive, most disease burdened areas. These are what science tells us. Just take a look at how many chemicals it takes to run a golf course and also why they require more pest control. 

As for people expressing their opinions, I am all for it, but I require students and people to back up their "opinions" with references and actual science. People in the field do call out bad ideas when we see them. I have had to take a lot of criticism in science, we all do, that is what makes us better scientists. Draining wetlands and exterminating mosquitos just isn't thinking outside the box, it is literally potentially sending us on a death spiral. We are likely already in another mass extinction event, only this time we are causing it through habitat fragmentation and way over using pesticides. Pardon me for being upset that we are literally gutting environmental protections.

I am not trying to be mean, but I am curious, what are the conventional ideas I have had? Because I'm pretty intense when I discuss that we really need to change the way we live if we are going to persist into the future. The fact that microplastics are found in literally everything is enough to cause concern. 

my son's entire job is determining impacts on wetlands. been tough to take samples this year with all the dry soil. developers often get pissed at him for delaying their projects, but there is a criteria and a set of plans to be implemented if wetlands are present. and unlike some idiots on the supreme court, he knows that wetlands don't have to be connected somehow to running water.....because he has a degree in this stuff....

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I know about your credentials, we've discussed them before and I respect them.

But why are you using insecticides in mice nesting material? As a scientist you must be aware of the effect this has on local bird populations that feed on mice, like owls?  There has to be a better way that doesn't impact other wildlife, such as birds.  I had an invasion of ticks at my other house in the Poconos when a deer crashed into my pool and died there.  Most of the ticks that I saw that summer were black ticks.  I bought something to spray on my clothes as a tick repellant-- permethrin.  I also read that opossum are the most efficient way to deal with ticks, as they are their main natural predator. So I've been encouraging more opossum onto that property and the ticks have been going down.  We have opossum here too even though I live in a semi-urban area, I think they would be a great way to drive down the tick population without using chemicals.

I am well aware of Lyme disease and how it's spread to other areas.  I blame stupid humans who decided that it's better to remove predators like coyotes and wolves and cougars that feed on white tailed deer who are the primary vector of the tick that carries Lyme disease.  Maybe if humans didn't kill off the predators we wouldn't have an explosion of white tailed deer.

I think you misinterpreted what I stated, I never said we should remove ALL wetlands, just trim them back from highly populated areas.  As for drainage, not using concrete and asphalt would help with drainage as well as helping with urban heat island.  I'm all for more greenery, as in more trees and native plants and grasses, less of the invasive stuff that has become so common here.

I am 100% against pesticides.  They are the main driver of the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, as much of a problem as climate change is.  And are destroying our own systems of food production by causing the collapse of pollinator populations.  Something I always like to say is that humans are part of the environment, we can't consider ourselves separate from it, because what we do to it, we also do to ourselves.  We're all interconnected.  As far as mosquitoes are concerned, malaria is one of the top killers on the planet and there are many other mosquito borne diseases.  We have better ways than using toxic chemicals.  Bill Gates idea of using sterilized genetically modified mosquitoes is one of them to control their populations.

By the way, thanks for mentioning microplastics.  Did you know that 6 out of 13 types of cancer are on a rapid rise even in younger people because of a combination of highly processed food, microplastics in food as well as environmental toxins like pesticides?  It seems like we are going backwards and regressing.  Humanity isn't sustainable in its current form.

we could not grow the amounts of food we do without pesticides. period. and we'd be inundated with roaches without them too. not all pesticides are onerous; boric acid and baking soda are pesticides. pyrethrins are pretty safe. if you've ever had a roach hitch a ride in your groceries and drop an egg sack, you would be much more inclined to be friendly to pesticides.....

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

we could not grow the amounts of food we do without pesticides. period. and we'd be inundated with roaches without them too. not all pesticides are onerous; boric acid and baking soda are pesticides. pyrethrins are pretty safe. if you've ever had a roach hitch a ride in your groceries and drop an egg sack, you would be much more inclined to be friendly to pesticides.....

Pesticides are more trouble than they are worth.  I grow my own veggies organically without any.  We have carcinogenic pesticides in our water here on Long Island, the consequences of farm runoff.

This is something where technology can come to the rescue, large farms are now using laser powered drones to effectively zap pests.  

I don't mind the pesticides you've mentioned those are pretty safe.  My issues are with organophosphates and 3,5-Dioxane.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

the weather must be boring.....

crystal clear blue skies are aesthetically very pleasing but not exciting weatherwise lol.

This was a great day though, maybe the best out of the next 10.

If it's windy later this week you'll see me complaining about allergies lol.

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

my son's entire job is determining impacts on wetlands. been tough to take samples this year with all the dry soil. developers often get pissed at him for delaying their projects, but there is a criteria and a set of plans to be implemented if wetlands are present. and unlike some idiots on the supreme court, he knows that wetlands don't have to be connected somehow to running water.....because he has a degree in this stuff....

Well, they aren't environmental scientists, or biologists, after all. 

[Sundog]

@LibertyBell we need wetlands, you're going to have to get over it lol sorry bud

[donsutherland1]

Today was the third consecutive day with a one-degree difference in high temperatures among Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains. That set a new record for most consecutive such days.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

@LibertyBell we need wetlands, you're going to have to get over it lol sorry bud

I know we do lol.  Just not right up next to the road lol.

How come there's so many different terms used to describe the same thing 1) wetlands 2) marshes 3) swamps?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the third consecutive day with a one-degree difference in high temperatures among Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains. That set a new record for most consecutive such days.

What's causing this similarity, is it because the higher winds are equalizing temperatures across the region, Don?

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the third consecutive day with a one-degree difference in high temperatures among Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains. That set a new record for most consecutive such days.

Wasn't the February 14-15, 2014 occurrence during a snowstorm, Don?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what's causing this similarity, is it because the winds are equalizing temperatures across the region, Don?

The winds and stochastic variability likely contributed. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't the February 14-15, 2014 occurrence during a snowstorm, Don?

Both dates occurred during snowfall. February 13-14, 2014 saw a storm dump 12.5" of snow (with a period of heavy windswept rain). A second system brought another 1.6" of snow. Those are Central Park figures.

[forkyfork]

the next time we get this pattern will be in april

[Picard]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

Hope so...it seems every system coming up from the south has high pressure building down from the north at the same time, suppressing it...just bad timing or what?

That's why I wouldn't get my hopes up about this possible wet stretch just yet.  Lately it seems we just have to watch development (or lack thereof) 24-36 hours out.  Models haven't been great for a while.

[Stormlover74]

Models have trended wetter for tonight and radar looks good. .25 to .5"

[wdrag]

Yellow on. radar scope is moderate rain for sure. .01 in this part of Wantage so far. 

[WE GOT HIM]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Yellow on. radar scope is moderate rain for sure. .01 in this part of Wantage so far. 

It was so nice today. Where did these clouds come from?

[winterwx21]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models have trended wetter for tonight and radar looks good. .25 to .5"

Yeah I'm sure the NAM 3km is way overdone with the .75 to 1 inch for our area, but HRRR is probably underdone with the less than a quarter inch. Your prediction looks good -- probably close to a third of an inch. Obviously not enough to help with the drought, but I'll be happy to see the vegetable garden get a watering. 

[Sundog]

0.28 here overnight. Not bad. 

[wdrag]

Good morning all,

It is a good morning if we can partake in this forum...

Widespread beneficial rainfall occurred overnight...into dawn,  generally 0.2 to as much as 0.6, from what I can tell. The additional rain we didnt get Sunday night... 

Regarding what I think are errant 00z/22 CMCE and GEFS runs, the EPS and EPS AI continue on the path of a beneficial 1/4"-2" rainfall for our entire subforum around 10/29-30 or possibly split events 10/29-30 and 11/2-3.  No thread on October rainfall equal or exceeding October norm due to very large disagreement between global ensembles.  If the ECAI backs off the next couple days then I have to accept a rare win for the GEFS.

I'm still always looking at CMCE but in my mind, it hasn't performed very well this year, especially beyond 24 hours. 

For now, I anticipate modeling to gradually migrate to a northwestward shift and back to the CPC 10/21 3PM moderate risk of heavy rainfall for the entire mid Atlantic coast 10/29-31

Also, all ensemble modeling is offering the first seasonal coatings of snow to the higher terrains of upstate NY and New England. 

Head into the storm with a steady hand until consistent cyclic evidence directs a change of course (drier). 

[wdrag]

Also...Canadian block continues through the first week of Nov, and maybe we evolve to a positive PNA by Nov 5???

[doncat]

0.29" here overnight... Pretty good considering. 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not talking about getting rid of ALL marshland obviously, just the ones near where people live.  You obviously do not live near one.  Do you know how bad that area smells in the summer?  Most of the who live here want the swamp that runs near Rockaway Boulevard to be drained because it smells so awful that you can smell it even with your windows roll up.

Most of those really bad smells are a function of the sewage treatment plants draining into the bays in the SW Nassau area. The sewage treatment plant in East Rockaway and Long Beach next to the skating rink are a much more potent smell. Plus those plants are old and leak untreated sewage into the area from time to time.

The hydrogen sulfide rotten egg smell from marshes doing their job is something that you get used to. Much of the time it’s in the background and not overpowering. But from time to time in the early morning during inversions it gets stronger. Though the smell usually goes away once the sun comes up and breaks the inversion.

The other issue near the South Shore marshes has been locating landfills there. The one in Oceanside used to be across from the old TSS store which is now behind a shopping center. They finally closed that one years ago. Everyone used to have to roll up the car windows when driving by there.

So marshes have mainly gotten a bad reputation by some not from their own natural processes but from all the pollution dumped into the areas. Driving through the marsh habitats on the parkways was one of may favorite drives when back on the South Shore.

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of those really bad smells are a function of the sewage treatment plants draining into the bays in the SW Nassau area. The sewage treatment plant in East Rockaway and Long Beach next to the skating rink are a much more potent smell. Plus those plants are old and leak untreated sewage into the area from time to time.

The hydrogen sulfide rotten egg smell from marshes doing their job is something that you get used to. Much of the time it’s in the background and not overpowering. But from time to time in the early morning during inversions it gets stronger. Though the smell usually goes away once the sun comes up and breaks the inversion.

The other issue near the South Shore marshes has been locating landfills there. The one in Oceanside used to be across from the old TSS store which is now behind a shopping center. They finally closed that one years ago. Everyone used to have to roll up the car windows when driving by there.

So marshes have mainly gotten a bad reputation by some not from their own natural processes but from all the pollution dumped into the areas. Driving through the marsh habitats on the parkways was one of may favorite drives when back on the South Shore.

Maybe he's just talking about the low tide smell of hydrogen sulfide gas

[IrishRob17]

.45", 2.22" for the month. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, doncat said:

Hope so...it seems every system coming up from the south has high pressure building down from the north at the same time, suppressing it...just bad timing or what?

Yeah, we get these really juicy long range Euro forecasts which end up verifying lower the closer in time we get. Eventually, one of these long range heavy rainfall forecasts will work out. But it’s already wavering for later in the month. Hard to get excited for anything beyond 120-168 hrs with so much high pressure dominating up in Canada.
 

New run more high pressure suppression

 

 

Old run was much wetter

[WestBabylonWeather]

My rain gauge on my ambient station stopped working. Assuming at least .25 overnight? 

[Brian5671]

some downpours here this AM-about .50 so far

[liwxfan]

Just had a downpour and pretty good hail here in miller place. Like a nice quick summer storm popped up out of nowhere.

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 54 had 0.35 overnight with the front.   Dry Wed - Sun and near normal.   Unsettled period 10/28 - 11/2 still to be determined where cutoff low meanders and where the heaviest rain and and any coastal should form and subsequently track.   Warmup in the 11/4 period and beyond.