October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

11 hours, seems less than that.  I guess we only notice when the sun is up, versus twilight during dawn and dusk...

 

-2:57 today to 10:57(ish)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

-2:57 today to 10:57(ish)

why is it so windy today?

it's ruining what should have been a wonderful day.

it hit 72 here earlier but the damn wind has made my allergies really bad starting around 11 AM

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

76 / 60

 

Gem of a late october day

 

 

72 here the wind is horrible and really provoking my allergies

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Hum much more aggressive that most models which are trending poorly due to bad timing

it's not really bad timing for those of us who like mild sunny days, but the wind aspect of today really sucks

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

68 here

72 here but too windy

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage.

Maybe it will hook into our region like how Sandy did, the timing seems right, same time of the month that Sandy came here.

 

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Maybe it will hook into our region like how Sandy did, the timing seems right, same time of the month that Sandy came here.

 

12z Euro again

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is really favorable for development in the Western Caribbean. We will just have to wait and see how much interaction there is with the trough forecast to be near the Great Lakes. Maybe the cutoff event last weekend was the beginning of a wetter pattern for our area.

 

 

dry summers and wet winters are exactly what we want

[SACRUS]

Made it to 78 before clouds started to move in  bit now at 75

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development. 
 

 

Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature 

what caused its drying out, lower rainfall totals over the past year?

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Made it to 78 before clouds started to move in  bit now at 75

 

too bad you could have hit 80 today

still bright and sunny here but just too windy for me

 

[Dark Star]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

72 here but too windy

Humidity is a bit much..

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Humidity is a bit much..

That might be adding to my allergies too-- wind plus humidity is a very bad combo

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.

 

Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details.

[Dark Star]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details.

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out.  That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out.  That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.

 

[MJO812]