October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[IrishRob17]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Thank you!

Traffic north of the Tappan Zee is always terrible, best to stay south of that line...

63 degrees currently and the looks to be a nice sunset setting up.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Almost made it to 70, 69 my high.

it will be in the 70s tomorrow, it was 68 here today

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will end on a very mild note. Temperatures will reach upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday.

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +4.38 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.575 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[MJO812]

Cold air is building. Patience. Colder pattern develops in the 1st week of November with the NAO and AO dropping.

[psv88]

66.8 today 

[FPizz]

5 hours ago, Sundog said:

Thank you!

Im not familiar with the towns, but 287 north of route 80 was beautiful on Thursday driving to Pearl River, NY.  Im sure some of the state parks in NNJ are probably popping nicely.  

[psv88]

Some nice color out in some of the county parks around here. The lower lying swampy areas have some really nice color, such as Caleb Smith state park and blydeburgh county park

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Some nice color out in some of the county parks around here. The lower lying swampy areas have some really nice color, such as Caleb Smith state park and blydeburgh county park

Blydenburgh was beautiful Friday afternoon.  It's wild watching how fast the brush has taken over the lake bed.

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Blydenburgh was beautiful Friday afternoon.  It's wild watching how fast the brush has taken over the lake bed.

Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Eduardo said:

It’s been stuck in hyperdrive for the better part of a decade now.  Any insights on how long things like this usually last?

It’s a new pattern which just developed in the last decade. Record ridging and sunshine over the WPAC leading to these record SSTs. So once Siberia begins getting cold in the fall a strong temperature gradient develops driving the much faster Pacific Jet.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

 

[SACRUS]

 

51 / 46 (11 Hours of daylight) Clear then partly / mostly cloudy later.  Warmest of the next week or two perhaps much longer than that.  low - mid 70s in the warmest spots (76/77).  Front comes trough later this evening and overnight 0.50 - 1.00 of rain (most north).  Dry week - near normal overall warmer Tue cooler Wed - Fri.  Next weekend looks dry and cooler into the week of the 27th..  Cutoff storm into the midwest to be ironed out along with what will be Melissa in the 10/29 - 11/3 period. Could be an interestingly unsettles close o the month.

10/19:  Warmest of the next week or longer 
10/20 - 10/27:   Near normal overall coolest  next weekend
10/28 - 11/3 :   Cutoff into the Midwest,  Melissa could be near along the EC

 

[donsutherland1]

The latest teleconnection forecast calls for a negative AO, negative NAO, and positive PNA in the closing days of October and opening days of November. Such a combination can favor a period of wetter weather.

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast for October 27-November 3 shows wet anomalies.

It should be noted that the Week 2 CFSv2 anomalies are on the dry side of normal. Therefore, at least for now, the period merits watching, but there remains considerable uncertainty. I suspect that the odds are somewhat more in favor of the ECMWF outcome given historic outcomes, but that won't become clearer until the operational guidance moves into its high-skill forecasting range.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 87 (2016)
NYC: 85 (2016)
LGA: 86 (2016)
JFK: 86 (2016)

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1976)
NYC: 30 (1940)
LGA: 32 (1940)
JFK: 31 (1976)

 

Historical:

1749: A tremendous hurricane tracked offshore Virginia, northeast to Cape Cod. At 1:00 a.m. at Norfolk, winds became violent from the northeast. The fury of the storm peaked between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.. In Williamsburg, one family drowned as flood waters carried their house away. At Hampton, water rose to four feet deep in the streets; many trees were uprooted or snapped in two. Torrents of rain flooded northern Virginia and Maryland. The Bay rose to fifteen feet above normal...destroying waterfront buildings. An account of this tremendous storm was given in the biography of Commodore James Barron, An Affair of Honor, by William Oliver Stevens. Barron's grandfather witnessed the hurricane first hand while stationed at Fort George. The account is as follows: "A threatening sky was observed to the southeast over the Chesapeake Bay. The wind increased which soon brought the rain. As the hours wore on the wind and rain increased in fury. Sometimes the downpour slackened. One could hear the sand picked up by the wind from the beach outside and blasted against every object that still withstood the gale. All the while the rising tide was rapidly being piled up to a height never seen before in that area. The waves were pounding on the shore, finally to the very foot of the outside wall at Fort George. A large tree crashed over on its side with its roots in the air and was driven against the land side of the Fort. With the impact the wall yawned and broke. Shortly afterwards the seawall lurched and sank at the point where it was exposed to the wave fury of the storm. Finally the outside wall of the fort gave way, and the filling of sand poured out, leaving the inner wall exposed to the blast without support. When this too fell apart and collapsed, the barracks took the full force of the wind. About sundown, the storm slackened and in another hour the rain and wind had diminished to such a degree that it was clearly spent. " The next morning Commodore Barron swept the distant waters with his spy glass. He was astonished to see across Hampton Roads a wide, sand promontory which had not existed there before. A sand spit had been thrown up during the fury of the storm, which was the beginning of Willoughby Spit. (Ref. Hurricane of 1749) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum)

1940: 2.2 inches of snowfall was recorded at Philadelphia, PA starting on this date and ending on the 20th, for the highest amount of snow received from a storm in October. The maximum 1.7 inch snow depth measured is an October record. Baltimore, MD received 0.4 inches on this day and 0.9 inches on the 20th. Washington, DC received just a tenth of an inch of snow on this date followed by 1.4 inches on the 20th. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year.

1990: A tornado damaged an apartment complex and shopping center near Baltimore, MD. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn.

2005: Hurricane Wilma pushed the 2005 season to the most active ever recorded, added another entry to the record books. The central pressure of this Category 5 storm fell to 882 millibars or 26.05 inches of mercury, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in the Atlantic basin. Its maximum sustained wind peaked at 185 mph.  (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

 

[SACRUS]

 

What should become Melissa may be something to watch in the 10/28 - 11/3 period.

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest teleconnection forecast calls for a negative AO, negative NAO, and positive PNA in the closing days of October and opening days of November. Such a combination can favor a period of wetter weather.

 

Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. I guess we will just have to wait until we get closer to the forecast time period and see how the potential Western Caribbean development progresses.
 

 

The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage.

The MJO is really favorable for development in the Western Caribbean. We will just have to wait and see how much interaction there is with the trough forecast to be near the Great Lakes. Maybe the cutoff event last weekend was the beginning of a wetter pattern for our area.