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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


wdrag
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The weekend will end on a very mild note. Temperatures will reach upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday.

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +4.38 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.575 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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