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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


wdrag
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3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think it will be a moderately snowy winter. 

WX/PT

If we can get a sign up sheet for 3/4 of normal snow, I think most of us would sign on for that.  A couple moderate storms and a major, then some mood flakes and whiteners here and there.  All day long.  Not asking for a lot here….

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3 hours ago, Sundog said:

I don't know why I bother to look at models at all. They're flip flopping even for Tuesday's rain, let alone next weekend. 

They're complete and utter trash.

Models seem to be shifting Wed's rain to.... wait for it... drum roll.... north and west of the city again! Seems like the front comes through in the morning which is the worst time heating-wise to generate showers/storms. So it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it fizzle out. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011.

Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30.

 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0
Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - -
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2
1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0
1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0
1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0
1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0
1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0
1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0
1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0
1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T
1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0
1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0


 

1859-1860 46.9

 

 

Thanks so much Chris-- can you pull any older data about those reputed 100 inch snowfall seasons from the early and mid 1800s at NYC and Philly? How far back does this data go?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011.

Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30.

 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0
Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - -
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2
1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0
1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0
1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0
1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0
1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0
1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0
1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0
1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0
1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T
1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0
1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0
1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0


 

1859-1860 46.9

 

 

Nice 15:1 ratios for October 27th too!

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5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

No, because they don't get upslope snows, which are what pile up on the western slopes of the Appalachians. It looks DC used to average around 2 feet per year, but that's still substantially more than today. They haven't had 2 feet of snow in any winter in the last 11 years. And the early numbers are probably an undercount as they were mostly just daily observations after the storm had ended, versus today's systematized observations of reporting peak accumulation in each six-hour period.

UCAR estimates a bias of 15-20 percent, which could be even greater if there is missing/bad data. See: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News So it's reasonable to believe that, in the absence of human intervention, DC should be receiving 25-30+ inches of snow each winter. It's hard to imagine the depth of snow that should have fallen over the last 100 years but failed to fall due to human interventions.

AN8kQG6.png

g8KfoKK.png

Oh  I see you have two of my favorite storms in there, the February 1899 blizzard and the Knickerbocker storm from January 1922!! Both delivered over 30 inches of snow in one calendar month!  When was the last time DC had 30 inches of snow in one month?

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4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

54

October 1954 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
83 70 0.00 0.0
86 69 0.00 0.0
81 66 0.13 0.0
84 70 0.00 0.0
80 63 0.00 0.0
63 48 0.23 0.0
57 38 0.00 0.0
62 38 0.00 0.0
70 48 0.00 0.0
79 60 0.00 0.0
85 61 0.00 0.0
88 63 0.00 0.0
89 63 0.00 0.0
80 65 0.00 0.0
74 59 0.31 0.0
70 50 0.00 0.0
63 44 0.00 0.0
63 41 0.00 0.0
61 47 0.00 0.0
60 46 0.00 0.0
58 44 0.00 0.0
60 45 0.00 0.0
73 39 0.00 0.0
73 50 0.00 0.0
68 48 0.00 0.0
64 49 0.00 0.0
72 46 0.22 0.0
58 40 0.00 0.0
53 43 0.71 0.0
48 37 0.15 0.0
51 36 0.00 0.0

 

 

October 2007 Newark Weather
Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches)
70 59 0.00 0.0
74 54 0.00 0.0
79 67 0.00 0.0
87 68 0.00 0.0
83 66 0.00 0.0
85 63 0.00 0.0
83 66 0.00 0.0
89 66 0.00 0.0
81 60 0.60 0.0
74 62 0.04 0.0
70 54 0.68 0.0
62 47 0.17 0.0
64 43 0.00 0.0
67 45 0.00 0.0
69 49 0.00 0.0
72 56 0.00 0.0
74 57 0.00 0.0
79 59 0.00 0.0
75 63 0.48 0.0
72 57 0.00 0.0
76 50 0.00 0.0
78 53 0.00 0.0
80 64 0.01 0.0
69 53 0.14 0.0
58 50 0.13 0.0
58 51 0.29 0.0
71 53 1.16 0.0
58 43 0.00 0.0
55 39 0.00 0.0
64 38 0.00 0.0
66 42 0.00 0.0

Was JFK the only local area reporting station to hit 90 in October 2007?

Their latest 90 on record too!

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Take a look at 1836. Tri-daily mean of 38.2F for October, and 30.8F for November, at Allegheny Arsenal in Pittsburgh (Lawrenceville). Not looking for a debate here... the 1820s data is probably substandard exposure and too high. Not that it matters much, last year was 56.4F at the airport, which is 500 feet higher in elevation for context.

3GEUEiP.png

Despite the lower elevation, the 46.9F mean observed in 1837 is more than 1F lower than any year in the official record, and 48.2F in 1836 is second lowest. This is what was stolen from us!

kiY2byi.png

 

1836-1837 is one of the listed winters when NYC and Philly received 100 inches of snow!!

Constant snowcover from Veterans Day to St Paddys Day too.

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Leftovers from Little Ice Age, those temps were never sustainable climate change or not. And, even by that time's standards that winter was harsh as per the article. 

North America was estimated to be up to 3.5C colder than the latest 30 year average. Which as we know for long time periods is an absolutely massive negative temp anomaly. 

Might be a volcanic influence too like what Laki did in 1782-1783 when we had over a dozen blizzards and pen ink froze.

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Any decent weather subscriptions out there? I wanted to get Weatherbell because they have nice graphics but it's 30 a month!

I hate Pivotal's color scheme so I would never pay for it. 

Anything else good out there?

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On 10/4/2025 at 7:34 PM, psv88 said:

You’ll want sound view boat ramp.

https://www.huntingtonny.gov/boat-ramps

thanks very much for that. we did hit the jersey shore sunday and well, it wasn't good. a dozen black sea bass and 4 porgies; all but two of the fish would have been shorts in new york waters. but it was only a two hour ride as opposed to 3.....the full moon does not help fishing; in 40 years i've never done well in either a full or new moon. we went because the weather was just too good to ignore, however there were still a lot of swells out there, and they built up with tide change; enough that you could not see a nearby boat when one came up. motion sickness alert....wind changed at the end of the day, blowing in massive plumes of red water.....i don't know if this was from the offshore storms or was plankton...never saw it before.

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On 10/4/2025 at 7:34 PM, psv88 said:

You’ll want sound view boat ramp.

https://www.huntingtonny.gov/boat-ramps

not sure the power station ramp, at soundview, is open to the public. i tried to call around, but got nowhere. problem is there is also no easy way to even drive to long island...it's like there's this big bottleneck called nyc in the way.....i've driven to city island and new rochelle on the other shore to fish the boats there, but a 45 min ride at 5 am turns into a 3 hour ride at 4 pm. my son interned in the bronx zoo in grad school and told me there is just no easy way around this.

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2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

If we can get a sign up sheet for 3/4 of normal snow, I think most of us would sign on for that.  A couple moderate storms and a major, then some mood flakes and whiteners here and there.  All day long.  Not asking for a lot here….

I think snowfall will probably be a bit above normal. I think temperatures will be below normal for 2 months.

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

12z/5 ECAI looks like the outlier now as 12z-18z/5 global trend is south or nil for Sun-Tue. If this ends up nil,  it would undermine my confidence in the still consistent soaking EC AI.

Waiting it out a day or so.  

Each AI run has been significantly south and east of the one before it. Although it still gets us wet I think it ends up looking like the other models now do.

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

not sure the power station ramp, at soundview, is open to the public. i tried to call around, but got nowhere. problem is there is also no easy way to even drive to long island...it's like there's this big bottleneck called nyc in the way.....i've driven to city island and new rochelle on the other shore to fish the boats there, but a 45 min ride at 5 am turns into a 3 hour ride at 4 pm. my son interned in the bronx zoo in grad school and told me there is just no easy way around this.

It’s definitely open to the public. Yes it’s a long drive from NJ…

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Parts of the region again saw 80° or above heat, with additional records falling in New England. Highs included:

Albany: 82°
Bangor: 84° (tied record set in 1946)
Boston: 84°
Burlington: 84° (old record: 82°, 1946 and 1990)
Caribou: 83° (old record: 74°, 1946) ***New October record***
Concord: 86° (old record: 84°, 1946 and 1990)
Hartford: 84°
Manchester: 86° (old record: 82°, 2007)
Millinocket: 85° (old record: 82°, 1946)
New York City-Central Park: 80°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81°
Newark: 83°
Philadelphia: 82°
Plattsburgh: 82° (old record: 80°, 2005)
Poughkeepsie: 84°
Portland: 86° (old record: 84°, 1946 and 1947)
Providence: 81°
White Plains: 80°

Tomorrow will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will also turn windy.

A strong cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow. Central Park will likely see its first lows in the 40s this season.

A potential nor'easter will need to be watched for late in the weekend to early next week. It could bring some showers and gusty rain to parts of the region, but suppression south and east of the area remains a plausible scenario.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +8.31 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.007 today. 

 

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