cleetussnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think it will be a moderately snowy winter. WX/PT If we can get a sign up sheet for 3/4 of normal snow, I think most of us would sign on for that. A couple moderate storms and a major, then some mood flakes and whiteners here and there. All day long. Not asking for a lot here…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 hours ago, Sundog said: I don't know why I bother to look at models at all. They're flip flopping even for Tuesday's rain, let alone next weekend. They're complete and utter trash. Models seem to be shifting Wed's rain to.... wait for it... drum roll.... north and west of the city again! Seems like the front comes through in the morning which is the worst time heating-wise to generate showers/storms. So it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it fizzle out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago On 10/5/2025 at 2:32 PM, forkyfork said: i do not see that happening with a trough in the west not getting a coastal climber in this pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, bluewave said: October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011. Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0 Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - - Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0 1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0 1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0 1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0 1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0 1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0 1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T 1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0 1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 1859-1860 46.9 Thanks so much Chris-- can you pull any older data about those reputed 100 inch snowfall seasons from the early and mid 1800s at NYC and Philly? How far back does this data go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, bluewave said: October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011. Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0 Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - - Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0 1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0 1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0 1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0 1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0 1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0 1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T 1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0 1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 1859-1860 46.9 Nice 15:1 ratios for October 27th too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: No, because they don't get upslope snows, which are what pile up on the western slopes of the Appalachians. It looks DC used to average around 2 feet per year, but that's still substantially more than today. They haven't had 2 feet of snow in any winter in the last 11 years. And the early numbers are probably an undercount as they were mostly just daily observations after the storm had ended, versus today's systematized observations of reporting peak accumulation in each six-hour period. UCAR estimates a bias of 15-20 percent, which could be even greater if there is missing/bad data. See: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News So it's reasonable to believe that, in the absence of human intervention, DC should be receiving 25-30+ inches of snow each winter. It's hard to imagine the depth of snow that should have fallen over the last 100 years but failed to fall due to human interventions. Oh I see you have two of my favorite storms in there, the February 1899 blizzard and the Knickerbocker storm from January 1922!! Both delivered over 30 inches of snow in one calendar month! When was the last time DC had 30 inches of snow in one month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 54 October 1954 Newark Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) October 1 83 70 0.00 0.0 October 2 86 69 0.00 0.0 October 3 81 66 0.13 0.0 October 4 84 70 0.00 0.0 October 5 80 63 0.00 0.0 October 6 63 48 0.23 0.0 October 7 57 38 0.00 0.0 October 8 62 38 0.00 0.0 October 9 70 48 0.00 0.0 October 10 79 60 0.00 0.0 October 11 85 61 0.00 0.0 October 12 88 63 0.00 0.0 October 13 89 63 0.00 0.0 October 14 80 65 0.00 0.0 October 15 74 59 0.31 0.0 October 16 70 50 0.00 0.0 October 17 63 44 0.00 0.0 October 18 63 41 0.00 0.0 October 19 61 47 0.00 0.0 October 20 60 46 0.00 0.0 October 21 58 44 0.00 0.0 October 22 60 45 0.00 0.0 October 23 73 39 0.00 0.0 October 24 73 50 0.00 0.0 October 25 68 48 0.00 0.0 October 26 64 49 0.00 0.0 October 27 72 46 0.22 0.0 October 28 58 40 0.00 0.0 October 29 53 43 0.71 0.0 October 30 48 37 0.15 0.0 October 31 51 36 0.00 0.0 October 2007 Newark Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) October 1 70 59 0.00 0.0 October 2 74 54 0.00 0.0 October 3 79 67 0.00 0.0 October 4 87 68 0.00 0.0 October 5 83 66 0.00 0.0 October 6 85 63 0.00 0.0 October 7 83 66 0.00 0.0 October 8 89 66 0.00 0.0 October 9 81 60 0.60 0.0 October 10 74 62 0.04 0.0 October 11 70 54 0.68 0.0 October 12 62 47 0.17 0.0 October 13 64 43 0.00 0.0 October 14 67 45 0.00 0.0 October 15 69 49 0.00 0.0 October 16 72 56 0.00 0.0 October 17 74 57 0.00 0.0 October 18 79 59 0.00 0.0 October 19 75 63 0.48 0.0 October 20 72 57 0.00 0.0 October 21 76 50 0.00 0.0 October 22 78 53 0.00 0.0 October 23 80 64 0.01 0.0 October 24 69 53 0.14 0.0 October 25 58 50 0.13 0.0 October 26 58 51 0.29 0.0 October 27 71 53 1.16 0.0 October 28 58 43 0.00 0.0 October 29 55 39 0.00 0.0 October 30 64 38 0.00 0.0 October 31 66 42 0.00 0.0 Was JFK the only local area reporting station to hit 90 in October 2007? Their latest 90 on record too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Take a look at 1836. Tri-daily mean of 38.2F for October, and 30.8F for November, at Allegheny Arsenal in Pittsburgh (Lawrenceville). Not looking for a debate here... the 1820s data is probably substandard exposure and too high. Not that it matters much, last year was 56.4F at the airport, which is 500 feet higher in elevation for context. Despite the lower elevation, the 46.9F mean observed in 1837 is more than 1F lower than any year in the official record, and 48.2F in 1836 is second lowest. This is what was stolen from us! 1836-1837 is one of the listed winters when NYC and Philly received 100 inches of snow!! Constant snowcover from Veterans Day to St Paddys Day too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 81 today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Sundog said: Leftovers from Little Ice Age, those temps were never sustainable climate change or not. And, even by that time's standards that winter was harsh as per the article. North America was estimated to be up to 3.5C colder than the latest 30 year average. Which as we know for long time periods is an absolutely massive negative temp anomaly. Might be a volcanic influence too like what Laki did in 1782-1783 when we had over a dozen blizzards and pen ink froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z/5 ECAI looks like the outlier now as 12z-18z/5 global trend is south or nil for Sun-Tue. If this ends up nil, it would undermine my confidence in the still consistent soaking EC AI. Waiting it out a day or so. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Any decent weather subscriptions out there? I wanted to get Weatherbell because they have nice graphics but it's 30 a month! I hate Pivotal's color scheme so I would never pay for it. Anything else good out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 10/4/2025 at 7:34 PM, psv88 said: You’ll want sound view boat ramp. https://www.huntingtonny.gov/boat-ramps thanks very much for that. we did hit the jersey shore sunday and well, it wasn't good. a dozen black sea bass and 4 porgies; all but two of the fish would have been shorts in new york waters. but it was only a two hour ride as opposed to 3.....the full moon does not help fishing; in 40 years i've never done well in either a full or new moon. we went because the weather was just too good to ignore, however there were still a lot of swells out there, and they built up with tide change; enough that you could not see a nearby boat when one came up. motion sickness alert....wind changed at the end of the day, blowing in massive plumes of red water.....i don't know if this was from the offshore storms or was plankton...never saw it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 10/4/2025 at 11:03 PM, jm1220 said: Look what I spied with my little eye. Time to build up the subscribers! Who's SnowbirdBob? everything i've seen says expect below normal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 10/4/2025 at 7:34 PM, psv88 said: You’ll want sound view boat ramp. https://www.huntingtonny.gov/boat-ramps not sure the power station ramp, at soundview, is open to the public. i tried to call around, but got nowhere. problem is there is also no easy way to even drive to long island...it's like there's this big bottleneck called nyc in the way.....i've driven to city island and new rochelle on the other shore to fish the boats there, but a 45 min ride at 5 am turns into a 3 hour ride at 4 pm. my son interned in the bronx zoo in grad school and told me there is just no easy way around this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Nice moon tonight. Pics a little blurry, but its my phone so... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, cleetussnow said: If we can get a sign up sheet for 3/4 of normal snow, I think most of us would sign on for that. A couple moderate storms and a major, then some mood flakes and whiteners here and there. All day long. Not asking for a lot here…. I think snowfall will probably be a bit above normal. I think temperatures will be below normal for 2 months. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, wdrag said: 12z/5 ECAI looks like the outlier now as 12z-18z/5 global trend is south or nil for Sun-Tue. If this ends up nil, it would undermine my confidence in the still consistent soaking EC AI. Waiting it out a day or so. Each AI run has been significantly south and east of the one before it. Although it still gets us wet I think it ends up looking like the other models now do. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: not sure the power station ramp, at soundview, is open to the public. i tried to call around, but got nowhere. problem is there is also no easy way to even drive to long island...it's like there's this big bottleneck called nyc in the way.....i've driven to city island and new rochelle on the other shore to fish the boats there, but a 45 min ride at 5 am turns into a 3 hour ride at 4 pm. my son interned in the bronx zoo in grad school and told me there is just no easy way around this. It’s definitely open to the public. Yes it’s a long drive from NJ… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago Parts of the region again saw 80° or above heat, with additional records falling in New England. Highs included: Albany: 82° Bangor: 84° (tied record set in 1946) Boston: 84° Burlington: 84° (old record: 82°, 1946 and 1990) Caribou: 83° (old record: 74°, 1946) ***New October record*** Concord: 86° (old record: 84°, 1946 and 1990) Hartford: 84° Manchester: 86° (old record: 82°, 2007) Millinocket: 85° (old record: 82°, 1946) New York City-Central Park: 80° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 82° Plattsburgh: 82° (old record: 80°, 2005) Poughkeepsie: 84° Portland: 86° (old record: 84°, 1946 and 1947) Providence: 81° White Plains: 80° Tomorrow will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will also turn windy. A strong cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow. Central Park will likely see its first lows in the 40s this season. A potential nor'easter will need to be watched for late in the weekend to early next week. It could bring some showers and gusty rain to parts of the region, but suppression south and east of the area remains a plausible scenario. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +8.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.007 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: It’s definitely open to the public. Yes it’s a long drive from NJ… we used to drive out to montauk back in the day, 40 years ago. had a lot more energy back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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