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Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A bit of a mild down on the 1st and 2nd.  GFS is teasing us. 

we cool

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 61. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. North wind around 6 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 59. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

That's a goodly warm signal showing up there thru October 10ish.  It's gotten coherent in the operational runs as well - in fact, they led the ens derived telecon spread as the latter had been flatter.  Now both with +height anomaly.  we'll see.   Not sure on amplitude but seein' as we've seen 80 between Nov 1 and Nov 10, twice in the last 4 years,  I don't doubt it happening a month earlier in Octobers

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit.  man. 

All agencies in on it too.  You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO.   Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin' :) ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory.  It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month.  

If this were July we'd really really roast.  

Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit.  man. 

All agencies in on it too.  You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO.   Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin' :) ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory.  It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month.  

If this were July we'd really really roast.  

Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

Probably lock that in all winter too. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit.  man. 

That sounds about right as we head into the lower sun angle time of year.

Mother Nature loves prolonging the sweet spot of temperatures in the 60-80F range as long as possible.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That sounds about right as we head into the lower sun angle time of year.

Mother Nature loves prolonging the sweet spot of temperatures in the 60-80F range as long as possible.

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November. 

My feeling is that it isn't going to snow anyway, and it's getting darker earlier, so I enjoy the nice weather being outside as much as possible.

My energy bill appreciates it with no AC or Heat.

By early to mid November, I'm game for sustained normal to below weather for snowmaking.  Have a full month+ though before it starts to matter.  48F and rain doesn't do much for me.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My feeling is that it isn't going to snow anyway, and it's getting darker earlier, so I enjoy the nice weather being outside as much as possible.

My energy bill appreciates it with no AC or Heat.

By early to mid November, I'm game for sustained normal to below weather for snowmaking.  Have a full month+ though before it starts to matter.  48F and rain doesn't do much for me.

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15.

I guess you could say I’m spooked :lol: 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15.

I guess you could say I’m spooked :lol: 

Yeah, it's been a nice step down so far, but I agree that the upper level pattern looks to buck that trend in the long term.  It wants to ridge out instead of the up and down of this month so far.

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