Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[Prismshine Productions]

Days are getting shorter, nights are getting colder, who knows what weathers in order...
 
One thing is guaranteed, however, its Spooky Season!
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A bit of a mild down on the 1st and 2nd.  GFS is teasing us. 

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A bit of a mild down on the 1st and 2nd.  GFS is teasing us. 

we cool

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 61. North wind 6 to 9 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 36. North wind around 6 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 59. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind.

[Damage In Tolland]

70’s Fri thru weekend . Never ending summer modeled 

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

70’s Fri thru weekend . Never ending summer modeled 

have you looked at a model?

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

have you looked at a model?

Put the long range GFS away . Even own ensembles don’t agree . You fall in love with with ops 

[HoarfrostHubb]

We’d-Friday look to be in the low to mid 60’s here for highs.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

70’s Fri thru weekend . Never ending summer modeled 

For most, yes, at least low 70’s. 

[ineedsnow]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Put the long range GFS away . Even own ensembles don’t agree . You fall in love with with ops 

Let me know how your extended summer beach trip is..

[Prismshine Productions]

CFS really locked in stien... Just 2" precip the ENTIRE MONTH

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

That's a goodly warm signal showing up there thru October 10ish.  It's gotten coherent in the operational runs as well - in fact, they led the ens derived telecon spread as the latter had been flatter.  Now both with +height anomaly.  we'll see.   Not sure on amplitude but seein' as we've seen 80 between Nov 1 and Nov 10, twice in the last 4 years,  I don't doubt it happening a month earlier in Octobers

[Typhoon Tip]

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit.  man. 

All agencies in on it too.  You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO.   Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin'  ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory.  It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month.  

If this were July we'd really really roast.  

Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

[kdxken]

Nicest August ever, September ever, let's make it a three-peat for October.

 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit.  man. 

All agencies in on it too.  You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO.   Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin'  ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory.  It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month.  

If this were July we'd really really roast.  

Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

Probably lock that in all winter too. 

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nicest August ever, September ever, let's make it a three-peat for October.

 

 

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably lock that in all winter too. 

[CoastalWx]

Summer keeps rolling.

[Torch Tiger]

he's baaaccckkkk

[Damage In Tolland]

Literally not a drop next 14 days 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ensembles and weeklies are a very very warm month. Hope that changes 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would be nice to to run the heat or AC much for a bit

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles and weeklies are a very very warm month. Hope that changes 

Why? Sounds perfect.

[weatherwiz]

Felt like September absolutely flew by. Outside of the severe we had early in the month, what a boring month. But things changing quickly, leaves turning and starting to drop like flies. 

[H2Otown_WX]

10 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

CFS really locked in stien... Just 2" precip the ENTIRE MONTH

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

[kdxken]

Just found this guy. Seems reasonable

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit.  man. 

That sounds about right as we head into the lower sun angle time of year.

Mother Nature loves prolonging the sweet spot of temperatures in the 60-80F range as long as possible.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That sounds about right as we head into the lower sun angle time of year.

Mother Nature loves prolonging the sweet spot of temperatures in the 60-80F range as long as possible.

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November. 

My feeling is that it isn't going to snow anyway, and it's getting darker earlier, so I enjoy the nice weather being outside as much as possible.

My energy bill appreciates it with no AC or Heat.

By early to mid November, I'm game for sustained normal to below weather for snowmaking.  Have a full month+ though before it starts to matter.  48F and rain doesn't do much for me.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My feeling is that it isn't going to snow anyway, and it's getting darker earlier, so I enjoy the nice weather being outside as much as possible.

My energy bill appreciates it with no AC or Heat.

By early to mid November, I'm game for sustained normal to below weather for snowmaking.  Have a full month+ though before it starts to matter.  48F and rain doesn't do much for me.

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15.

I guess you could say I’m spooked  

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15.

I guess you could say I’m spooked  

Yeah, it's been a nice step down so far, but I agree that the upper level pattern looks to buck that trend in the long term.  It wants to ridge out instead of the up and down of this month so far.