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Category Five Hurricane Humberto

WxWatcher007

By WxWatcher007,
in Tropical Headquarters

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olafminesaw

olafminesaw

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Humberto looks to be trending stronger than expected so far, and track is trending more towards Bermuda...if the trends continue, how will this impact the track of the other storm? Interesting to watch it play out...

For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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Posted 
Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025
 
Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening.  The eye
temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C) 
is nearly closed.  A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated 
that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The 
initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS 
ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample
mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify 
rapidly during the next 12-24 hours.  DTOPS guidance indicates 
a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest
official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a
peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night.  By the 36 hour period,
however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement 
cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact 
timing.  It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC 
(Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle) 
statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset.  By mid-next 
week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should 
induce a gradual weakening trend.  At the same time, while it passes 
west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field 
will likely occur.  The NHC intensity forecast is just above the 
previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a 
blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models.
 
Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this
evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial 
motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt.  
Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or 
west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering 
flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north 
of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda.  Around the 48 hour period, 
or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in 
forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure 
weakens and shifts eastward.  By day 4, Humberto should commence a 
rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a 
major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of 
northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic.  The 
official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous 
advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and 
lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble model.
 
NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has 
reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds, 
gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 22.1N  58.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.2N  59.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 22.7N  61.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 23.6N  63.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 24.8N  65.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 26.2N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 27.9N  68.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 32.1N  68.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 36.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Category Five Hurricane Humberto
yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025
 
...HUMBERTO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn 
toward the northwest is anticipated on Sunday. Humberto is forecast 
to then turn northward and move west of Bermuda by Tuesday evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Humberto is now a category 5 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Humberto will likely remain a 
powerful major hurricane for the next several days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will affect portions of the 
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and 
Bermuda beginning tonight and continuing through next week. Swells 
from Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bookbinder/D. Zelinsky
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
000
WTNT43 KNHC 272044
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Humberto has quickly strengthened during the past several hours. A 
very symmetric ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C now 
surrounds the clear eye of the hurricane. At 1800 UTC, the TAFB 
subjective Dvorak analysis was 7.0/140 kt. Most of the objective 
techniques like the UW-CIMSS ADT and AIDT, as well as the SAB 
subjective Dvorak fix supported a slightly lower intensity, closer 
to 130 kt.  However, since that time, cloud tops around Humberto 
have gotten colder and the objective estimates have increased. 
Therefore, the intensity has been set at 140 kt, making Humberto the 
second category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Internal factors 
like eyewall replacement cycles will likely dominate Humberto's 
intensity for the next day or two, so fluctuations in maximum wind 
speeds are expected. All of the intensity guidance indicates that 
some slow weakening is expected to begin by Monday, before Humberto 
begins to interact with a mid-latitude trough on Tuesday. The 
cyclone should then begin its extratropical transition shortly 
thereafter, resulting in a quicker decrease in maximum winds but an 
expansion of the overall wind field. Overall, little change was 
needed to the official forecast aside from showing a higher 
intensity for the first day or two. 

Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast. 
Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The 
hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for 
the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough 
and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track 
guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with 
regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5 
days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore 
decreased, even though little change was made to the official 
forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the 
GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 22.9N  61.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 23.5N  62.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 24.7N  64.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 26.2N  66.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 28.0N  67.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 30.0N  68.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 32.1N  68.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 36.1N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 42.5N  46.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Bookbinder
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TheDreamTraveler

TheDreamTraveler

Posted
Posted

Actually can't believe we have another category 5. And in the same place Erin was. The amount of cat 5's we've had since 2016 has been mind boggling. I think we might just be normalized to it now but having cat 5's in this part of the atlantic is insane.

 

We went from 2007 to 2016 with ZERO cat 5's. Then 2016 to 2025 with...12 cat 5's lol

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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Posted 
Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025
 
Humberto remains a large, powerful hurricane this evening, with a
spectacular satellite presentation.  The hurricane has a clear, 
19C, symmetric 25 nm wide eye that is surrounded by a white ring 
of very, cold (-73C) cloud tops.  The most intense deep convection 
associated with the eyewall appears to be just east of the surface 
center, where -78C (CMG) tops are discernible.  Impressive 
ventilation aloft is provided by dual outflow channels located over 
the north semicircle of the cyclone.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the various UW-CIMSS objective 
estimates support holding the initial intensity at 140 kt.
 
Humberto could undergo inner core structural changes, which will
likely cause intensity fluctuations during the next 12-24 hours.  
In fact, an earlier GPM/GMI overpass revealed a hint of concentric
outer ring development, and the UW-CIMSS MPERC is indicating up to
a 78hance of another ERC event.  Afterward, the statistical and
skilled consensus intensity models point toward a gradual weakening
trend beginning around Monday.  Through the remaining period, 
further weakening at a faster pace is expected while the cyclone
becomes embedded in the strong upper-level westerly flow.
 
By the 60 hour period, Humberto should continue moving around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge located to 
the northeast of the cyclone and east of Bermuda.  By Tuesday 
night, Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward while the 
ridge mentioned above weakens and shifts eastward.  By mid-next 
week, Humberto should turn quickly toward the northeast to 
east-northeast in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough 
amplifying and moving out of the Canadian Maritimes and into the
northwestern Atlantic waters.  There remains quite a bit of
along-track spread beyond day 4, which is typically seen when
tropical cyclones move within the mid-latitude upper-westerlies and
commence a structural transition to an extra-tropical cyclone.
The NHC forecast is nudged toward the TVCA simple consensus and the 
HCCA corrected aid, and is close to the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 23.4N  62.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 24.1N  63.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 25.4N  65.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 27.1N  66.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 29.1N  68.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 30.9N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 33.2N  67.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 37.0N  58.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 44.7N  41.4W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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