olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 03:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:28 PM 3 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: Humberto looks to be trending stronger than expected so far, and track is trending more towards Bermuda...if the trends continue, how will this impact the track of the other storm? Interesting to watch it play out... For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM 1 hour ago, Nibor said: How did you get a larger gif to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted yesterday at 06:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:28 PM 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: How did you get a larger gif to post? Download the gif on desktop. Upload it to imgur. Copy the direct link. Paste in the reply box and it should automatically embed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted yesterday at 10:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:27 PM I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 10:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:53 PM 25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I wish we had recon in there. This has the look of a high end cat 4 already the last couple of frames it looks to be heading wsw https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago Even with this half scan, Humberto is an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago WOW Humberto now forecast to become a cat 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening. The eye temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C) is nearly closed. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify rapidly during the next 12-24 hours. DTOPS guidance indicates a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night. By the 36 hour period, however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact timing. It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC (Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle) statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset. By mid-next week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should induce a gradual weakening trend. At the same time, while it passes west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field will likely occur. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models. Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt. Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda. Around the 48 hour period, or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. By day 4, Humberto should commence a rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble model. NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds, gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 22.1N 58.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Yeah the writing was on the wall pretty quickly this morning, unabated RI was almost a guarantee.@WxWatcher007was correctly calling for this to be the season of the SW Atlantic… once Erin’s cold pool rebounded, that zone has become rocket fuel once again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I'm still not seeing anything in the recon plans regarding flying into Humberto. As far as I know/remember, they always fly into hurricanes within range, as Humberto clearly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I understand the NHC has its hands full, but 125 knots is too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago You’d be hard pressed to find many Atlantic hurricanes with a better satellite appearance than this. I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a 5 at 5pm. 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago My God. That’s as good as it gets structurally. 10 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Nice visible loop. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop60.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago What a beast. What a week. Atlantic showing off finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The T# is up to 7.0, which is 160 mph. This certainly looks near cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago As expected, we have our second cat 5 of the season. Really hope we can get recon in there before the next EWRC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 ...HUMBERTO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 61.1W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Humberto is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is anticipated on Sunday. Humberto is forecast to then turn northward and move west of Bermuda by Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Humberto will likely remain a powerful major hurricane for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda beginning tonight and continuing through next week. Swells from Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bookbinder/D. Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272044 TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 Humberto has quickly strengthened during the past several hours. A very symmetric ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C now surrounds the clear eye of the hurricane. At 1800 UTC, the TAFB subjective Dvorak analysis was 7.0/140 kt. Most of the objective techniques like the UW-CIMSS ADT and AIDT, as well as the SAB subjective Dvorak fix supported a slightly lower intensity, closer to 130 kt. However, since that time, cloud tops around Humberto have gotten colder and the objective estimates have increased. Therefore, the intensity has been set at 140 kt, making Humberto the second category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Internal factors like eyewall replacement cycles will likely dominate Humberto's intensity for the next day or two, so fluctuations in maximum wind speeds are expected. All of the intensity guidance indicates that some slow weakening is expected to begin by Monday, before Humberto begins to interact with a mid-latitude trough on Tuesday. The cyclone should then begin its extratropical transition shortly thereafter, resulting in a quicker decrease in maximum winds but an expansion of the overall wind field. Overall, little change was needed to the official forecast aside from showing a higher intensity for the first day or two. Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5 days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore decreased, even though little change was made to the official forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.9N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 28.0N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 32.1N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 36.1N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Bookbinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago The IR almost looks like a copypasta of Dorian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago Actually can't believe we have another category 5. And in the same place Erin was. The amount of cat 5's we've had since 2016 has been mind boggling. I think we might just be normalized to it now but having cat 5's in this part of the atlantic is insane. We went from 2007 to 2016 with ZERO cat 5's. Then 2016 to 2025 with...12 cat 5's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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