Fall 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Looking like lake effect is gonna kick into gear after that system next week 

[OHweather]

It doesn't last long because the Pacific is moving way too fast right now, but a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. You can see the chunk of the PV at the beginning of the loop up in the middle of the arctic circle that drops towards Hudson Bay this week and gets pulled into the Great Lakes and New England Sunday through Tuesday. It will be impressively cold aloft beneath this, so the lakes will be cranking. Pretty good chance that there's enough snow to prompt at least winter wx advisories off a few of the lakes, usually when it's as cold aloft at 500mb as what the models are depicting and the lakes are this warm there are some intense bands. 

[sbnwx85]

Honored to present the first clown map of the season. We are so back.

[A-L-E-K]

gonna be rough when the sswe ends up burying I95 while we do the cad thing

[ChiTownSnow]

On 11/5/2025 at 12:43 AM, sbnwx85 said:

Honored to present the first clown map of the season. We are so back.

That somehow did not turn out to be a clown

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, ChiTownSnow said:

That somehow did not turn out to be a clown

It was surprisingly good for so far out, although the snow band in southern MI needed to be more south/east and into NW OH.

[A-L-E-K]

Looking mild and boring, p rough

[cyclone77]

The AI Euro has been selling a storm system next weekend pretty consistently for days.  Hopefully it's on the right track.

[DocATL]

gonna be rough when the sswe ends up burying I95 while we do the cad thing

I’m having flashbacks of last year and the clippers that never came.


.

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

I’m having flashbacks of last year and the clippers that never came.


.

Clippers have to be an endangered species at this point, but it's been that way for a while.

I remember them being quite common in the 90s through mid-2000s.

[A-L-E-K]

50 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Clippers have to be an endangered species at this point, but it's been that way for a while.

I remember them being quite common in the 90s through mid-2000s.

it feels like that but i'd like to see some data and i'm too lazy/not interested enough to look myself

[Powerball]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

it feels like that but i'd like to see some data and i'm too lazy/not interested enough to look myself

 

I'm not sure it's possible to get hard data on it, but I know @michsnowfreak has expressed the same feeling on multiple occasions.

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

Clippers have to be an endangered species at this point, but it's been that way for a while.

I remember them being quite common in the 90s through mid-2000s.

I think it has to do with the lack of sustained western US riding the last 10 years or so. You need the +PNA to dive those systems southeast along the temperature gradient. They're still there, they’re just tracking north or northeast of most of this sub because the flow is too fast and pushing the ridging too far east into the western midwest. 

[ChiTownSnow]

@Chicago Storm we need your mid range pattern analysis posts..  seems pattern change is immenet come end of month. 

[Baum]

9 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said:

@Chicago Storm we need your mid range pattern analysis posts..  seems pattern change is immenet come end of month. 

He has spoken.

[A-L-E-K]

looking like some brief post turkey cad before we kick off december with an eastern ridge 

anything interesting still far off in no man's land

[hawkeye_wx]

There's plenty of action in the distance.  The snow may all end up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, but it's at least some good stuff to track.  I certainly won't complain if we get some good showers and storms.

[nvck]

 

not sure if this has been posted yet, but ....

[OrdIowPitMsp]

28 minutes ago, nvck said:

 

not sure if this has been posted yet, but ....

Worrying that there is only a slight risk over the Rockies. Snowpack in Colorado is near record low for this time of year. 

[nvck]

38 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Worrying that there is only a slight risk over the Rockies. Snowpack in Colorado is near record low for this time of year. 

yeah, was looking at that a couple days ago, actually. Thankfully, California is running way above normal for precip on the year.