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Saturday 9/6 Strong/Severe storm potential


Torch Tiger
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It will be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out. I don't think we're looking at widespread severe weather but maybe we see something along the line of a concentrated swath of wind damage reports focused where any bowing segments occur. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates, I think if we had better and stronger shortwave forcing that could yield greater potential for a swath of wind damage across the region. The greatest severe weather potential may also be early on, which would favor far western sections as activity develops. LFC heights aren't too bad, so if parcels can get to the LFC easily the initial storms could be potent with risk for a tornado. But I could see this evolving more into a torrential rain/gusty wind on the leading edge ordeal very quickly. Probably Berkshire County, Litchfield County, Fairfield County into western Hartford/Hamden/Hampshire counties for best severe potential...which matches up well with where the slight risk is. 

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We're going to need to get rid of this smoke so we can heat sufficiently and steepen those llvl lapse rates...that is going to be key today. But I think this setup is getting played up a bit too much (Eversource sending out messaging). It's a narrow corridor for severe potential and that is going to be highly dependent on if we can get heating to steepen those lapse rates up. But as cells develop and rapidly organize into a line updrafts are going to start to struggle (this is where the poor mlvl lapse rates will hurt and lack of stronger s/w forcing) and choke each other off. 

I think we may see two or maybe three separate swaths where wind damage (maybe a tornado) is most concentrated. First area within Berkshire County through central Mass, another within New Hampshire, and maybe a 3rd into southern Litchfield/northern Fairfield County Connecticut. Once you get to 95 this is where we see a transition to heavy rain/thunder with gusty winds along the outflow and localized damaging wind gust.

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