September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[forkyfork]

never trust a deamplifying system running into dry air

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Picard said:

Don,

I'm curious where you pull your data?  Is it accessible to anyone?  If it's intuitive enough, I want to play around with the numbers some more for my area.  Thx.

Picard,

My data comes mainly from: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

I periodically use teleconnections data: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/

and Climate Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/

Most of this data can readily be downloaded or converted into .CSV and .XLSX files

[nycwinter]

it feels like a mid october day chilly gusty ocean breeze perfect hoodie weather..

[Rmine1]

Drizzle, brightwaters 67

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed. 

For New York City, the connection isn't as strong. Since 2000, a wet fall is more likely to be followed by a wet winter. Dry falls were only slightly more likely to be followed by wet winters (using the 1991-2020 baselines) for New York City (Central Park).

Drier than Normal Falls:
54.5% were followed by above-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2024/Winter 2024-2025)
45.5% were followed by below-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2017/Winter 2017-2018)

Wetter than Normal Falls:
61.5% were followed by above-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2023/Winter 2023-2024)
38.5% were followed by below-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2022/Winter 2022-2023)

 

[winterwx21]

I know it wasn't looking impressive, but I was hoping for at least a quarter inch today to give things a watering. Terrible that we're going to see almost nothing.

That inch and a half that we got a week and a half ago helped, but now it's back to having to water the vegetable garden almost every day. That rain helped hold off the developing drought a little bit too, but now we'll be going into at least a moderate drought here with no rain in sight.

Frustrating, but unfortunately we're getting used to the extremes. We either get way too much rain or not nearly enough. I miss the days of getting normal rainfall. It makes it tough for vegetable gardeners. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Radar not looking impressive. Probably waves of mist on stiff easterly wind for the most part here.

Sunshine and warmth is way better than this crap.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

never trust a deamplifying system running into dry air

Remember this in the winter too

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Top 10 driest September to September period for many stations in the Northeast.

the cycle has switched to an 80s type pattern

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, doncat said:

Not including this month yet but since last September, 5 months have had under 2" of rain here. 12 month precip totals getting down into the upper 20's inch range.

almost like 1966

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Having this happen two falls in a row makes me think something might have changed at least for the near term precipitation around here. But it has only been a year and things can flip back to wetter again. This top down warming and drying from Canada is something new for us though.

we had way too much rain for way too long Chris

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the cycle has switched to an 80s type pattern

80s type snowfall pattern too, but even less.

[jm1220]

21 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Hopefully around .25" falls, but could end up closer to .10"    

Or zero. Maybe one or two what I would call showers and that’s it. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1991)
LGA: 95 (1991)
JFK: 90 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1950)
NYC: 45 (1986)
LGA: 48 (1986)
JFK: 48 (1958)

Historical:

 

1911: Pipestone, MN is hit with baseball-sized hail that smashes numerous windows at the Calumet Hotel and high school. The local observer measured hail three inches deep. People got their photos taken in automobiles surrounded by the icy white ground. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel)

1947: A Hurricane moved in from the Atlantic over Palm Beach and Broward Counties in Florida. Hurricane force winds were experienced along the Florida East Coast from Cape Canaveral to Carysfort Reef Light, south of Miami, while winds of over 100 mph were felt from the northern portion of Miami to north of Palm Beach, or about 70 miles. A 1-minute maximum wind speed of 155 mph was recorded at the Pompano Beach light station. Dozens of people were killed in this storm. It went on to hit the New Orleans, LA area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1957: Tropical Storm Ester hits the Louisiana Coast. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1960: 23 inches of snow at Rawlins, WY and over 20 inches at Lander set new early season snowfall records for both locations. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961: A powerful thunderstorm struck Las Vegas, NV with high winds and huge hailstones that racked up the community from one end to the other. The Strip was especially hit hard by the sudden fury of the storm, which blasted down virtually all of the big signs in the resort area and tore part of the roof off the Dunes Hotel. Dozens of homes and businesses had roofs ripped off and/or windows broken by the winds which had gusts to an estimated 80 mph and golf ball sized hail. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel)

1971: Boulder, CO was buried under 21 inches of snow and Denver recorded 15.6 inches. Damage to trees and power lines was extensive due to the snow being wet and heavy. Record breaking cold followed the early season snowstorm. Further north, 8 inches of snow fell at Red Lodge, MT beginning the day before ending on this date. Other totals included: Mystic Lake, MT: 5 inches, Livingston, MT: 1 inch and a trace reported at Billings, MT. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2000: For the second straight day, the record high of 95° at Denver, Co set three records: 1.) New record high for the date.
2.) The warmest reading for this late in the year.  3.) It marked the 61st day during the year the temperature reached 90° or above, beating the record set the previous day and first set on 9/29/1994. Cheyenne reached a high of 91°, which is the latest day in history that Cheyenne reached at least 90°. Other daily record highs included: Rapid City, SD: 101°, Scottsbluff, NE: 99°, Bishop, CA: 97°-Tied, Pueblo, CO: 96°, Winslow, AZ: 96°-Tied, Clayton, NM: 95 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2004 - The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876.

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I know it wasn't looking impressive, but I was hoping for at least a quarter inch today to give things a watering. Terrible that we're going to see almost nothing.

That inch and a half that we got a week and a half ago helped, but now it's back to having to water the vegetable garden almost every day. That rain helped hold off the developing drought a little bit too, but now we'll be going into at least a moderate drought here with no rain in sight.

Frustrating, but unfortunately we're getting used to the extremes. We either get way too much rain or not nearly enough. I miss the days of getting normal rainfall. It makes it tough for vegetable gardeners. 

It is a good thing that event earlier in the month over performed.  Think of where we would be without that for this month!

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1991)
LGA: 95 (1991)
JFK: 90 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1950)
NYC: 45 (1986)
LGA: 48 (1986)
JFK: 48 (1958)

Historical:

 

1911: Pipestone, MN is hit with baseball-sized hail that smashes numerous windows at the Calumet Hotel and high school. The local observer measured hail three inches deep. People got their photos taken in automobiles surrounded by the icy white ground. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel)

1947: A Hurricane moved in from the Atlantic over Palm Beach and Broward Counties in Florida. Hurricane force winds were experienced along the Florida East Coast from Cape Canaveral to Carysfort Reef Light, south of Miami, while winds of over 100 mph were felt from the northern portion of Miami to north of Palm Beach, or about 70 miles. A 1-minute maximum wind speed of 155 mph was recorded at the Pompano Beach light station. Dozens of people were killed in this storm. It went on to hit the New Orleans, LA area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1957: Tropical Storm Ester hits the Louisiana Coast. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1960: 23 inches of snow at Rawlins, WY and over 20 inches at Lander set new early season snowfall records for both locations. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961: A powerful thunderstorm struck Las Vegas, NV with high winds and huge hailstones that racked up the community from one end to the other. The Strip was especially hit hard by the sudden fury of the storm, which blasted down virtually all of the big signs in the resort area and tore part of the roof off the Dunes Hotel. Dozens of homes and businesses had roofs ripped off and/or windows broken by the winds which had gusts to an estimated 80 mph and golf ball sized hail. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel)

1971: Boulder, CO was buried under 21 inches of snow and Denver recorded 15.6 inches. Damage to trees and power lines was extensive due to the snow being wet and heavy. Record breaking cold followed the early season snowstorm. Further north, 8 inches of snow fell at Red Lodge, MT beginning the day before ending on this date. Other totals included: Mystic Lake, MT: 5 inches, Livingston, MT: 1 inch and a trace reported at Billings, MT. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2000: For the second straight day, the record high of 95° at Denver, Co set three records: 1.) New record high for the date.
2.) The warmest reading for this late in the year.  3.) It marked the 61st day during the year the temperature reached 90° or above, beating the record set the previous day and first set on 9/29/1994. Cheyenne reached a high of 91°, which is the latest day in history that Cheyenne reached at least 90°. Other daily record highs included: Rapid City, SD: 101°, Scottsbluff, NE: 99°, Bishop, CA: 97°-Tied, Pueblo, CO: 96°, Winslow, AZ: 96°-Tied, Clayton, NM: 95 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2004 - The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876.

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1991)
LGA: 95 (1991)
JFK: 90 (1991)

 

a straight sweep for 1991!  In our truly great summers, like 1983, 1991, 1993, 2002 and 2010 we had temperatures in the 90s well into September (mid September or later.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

It is a good thing that event earlier in the month over performed.  Think of where we would be without that for this month!

October of last year lol.

We might repeat that next month except without that annoying phantom *.01* to end the month.

I am a perfectionist and I want to see 0 one of these months....

 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

October of last year lol.

We might repeat that next month except without that annoying phantom *.01* to end the month.

I am a perfectionist and I want to see 0 one of these months....

 

Remember all the fires we had last fall. It was horrible. I don't know why anyone would want to see a severe drought. Obviously you don't garden lol. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Remember all the fires we had last fall. It was horrible. I don't know why anyone would want to see a severe drought. Obviously you don't garden lol. 

Weren't those in November with all the warmth though?

I do garden but it's mostly roses and some other flowers.

[SACRUS]

 

Ocean storm

 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Ocean storm

 

Not according to this ridiculous headline.  What garbage.  

[Stormlover74]

48 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Remember all the fires we had last fall. It was horrible. I don't know why anyone would want to see a severe drought. Obviously you don't garden lol. 

We might get into these showers this afternoon but can't see more than a few hundredths

[forkyfork]

i'm in elizabeth and it's pouring

[MJO812]

Showers here in Brooklyn

[SACRUS]

[Neblizzard]

Pouring in Union County NJ.  This event is sure localized but I’ll take it. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We might get into these showers this afternoon but can't see more than a few hundredths

I just had a little 3 minute shower here that was barely enough to wet the ground. I agree it's unlikely that we're gonna get much, but we'll have to see if we can get lucky with one of these isolated downpours. I see there's one down in Monmouth right now heading northwest, but I don't know if it's gonna hit us or miss a little to the south.