September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[nycwinter]

not really summery with dew points in the mid 40's

[ForestHillWx]

Would be nice to get some rain, but what a stretch of pleasant weather since August began. 
 

[bluewave]

Models bring back the mid to perhaps upper 80s again going forward for the usual warm spots. Much drier pattern returns as the recent rains were just a blip in the expanding drought pattern.

The cool departures will begin shrinking. If we get a warmer Sep 21 to 30, then the month could finish with a + departure. 
 

 

 

[Sundog]

Are the overall anomalies being affected by higher low temps?

I don't see any temps higher than upper 70s on the EPS.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Are the overall anomalies being affected by higher low temps?

I don't see any temps higher than upper 70s on the EPS.

The EPS longer range was too cool for yesterday. It originally had mid 70s from its older forecasts. But the warm spots it to the low 80s yesterday.

 

Data for September 11, 2025 through September 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	83
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	82
Newark Area	ThreadEx	82
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	81
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	81
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	80
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	80
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	80
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	80
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	80

[SACRUS]

 

64 / 56 another dry  / warm day as we erode the early month below normal with a period of warmer than normal.   Center ridge a bit east keeping the cut off / ULL away and the area dry through the week.  Overall warmer period with max temps in the mid 80s in the warmest spots othwerwise upper 70s to low 80s.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1961)
NYC: 94 (1961)
LGA: 94 (1961)
JFK: 91 (1981)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1958)
NYC: 46 (1917)
LGA: 52 (1967)
JFK: 46 (1967)

Historical:

1775: The Independence Hurricane caught many fishing boats on the Grand Banks off Newfoundland Canada killing 4,000 seamen, most from Britain and Ireland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1857: The SS Central America sinks during a hurricane, killing 425 lives. Fourteen tons of gold was aboard the ship as well.

1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 AM broke windows and caused considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia, MN in Watonwan County. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum)

1921: The San Antonio River flooded, killing 51 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. The flood was caused by some of the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in Texas. A storm stalled over the town of Taylor and dumped an astounding 23.11 inches of rain on the area in less than a day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1944: The destroyer USS Warrington was sunk by the Great Atlantic Hurricane 300 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL. 247 men were lost in the tragedy. The hurricane would pass just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks and make landfall on the east end of Long Island, then pass into Rhode Island. The Great Atlantic hurricane was significant because it was the first storm in which forecasters had regular aircraft reconnaissance reports available. The success convinced the military of the value of reconnaissance and the program continued and evolved to what it is today. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1950: Hurricane Dog was the most intense hurricane in the 1950 Atlantic hurricane season. The fourth named storm of the season, Dog developed on August 30 to the east of Antigua; after passing through the northern Lesser Antilles, it turned to the north and intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. Dog reached its peak intensity with winds of 185 mph (300 km/h) over the open Atlantic and after weakening, it passed within 200 miles (320 km) of Cape Cod Hurricane Dog retains the record for longest continuous duration for a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, although Hurricane Allen spent more total time as a Category 5. On September 4, Hurricane Dog was one of three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, along with Charlie and Easy. This is a rare occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean, and has only happened six times since 1950—in 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, 1998, and most recently in 2010. This also occurred on August 31 with Baker, Charlie and Dog. Additionally, Dog remains one of only three Category 5 hurricanes in the historical database to avoid land—the others were Easy and Cleo, both of which also occurred in the 1950s. Why was it called the Dog Hurricane? Hurricane naming began back in 1950, when meteorologists wanted to give tropical storms and hurricanes an easy name to remember them by, instead of just plain "Hurricane Six" or "Tropical Storm 8b". So, in 1950, the National Hurricane Center named hurricanes from the World War 2 phonetic alphabet. Hurricanes that year were given names such as "Dog", "Barker", "Item", and "Jig". And yes, these names did sound a little funny, that is probably why they only used these names until 1952. In the Hurricane Season of 1953, they tried a different approach - giving the hurricanes human names. They started out just using female names, and this lasted over 25 years until in 1979, men's names were incorporated into the list.

 

1950: A hailstorm struck southern parts of Oklahoma City on this day. The storm damaged about 4,000 homes, 300 businesses, and 750 cars, resulting in a loss estimated at $987,000.

1960: Hurricane Donna hits the Boston, MA area. Winds were recorded to 140 mph at the Blue Hills Observatory at Milton, MA and 130 mph at Block Island, RI. Donna was the first hurricane to affect every point along the east coast from Key West, FL to Caribou, ME. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)


1963: President Kennedy gave his, “We choose to go to the moon” speech at Rice University.

1974: Another three inches of snow fell at Scottsbluff, NE bringing the early season snowfall total to 3.8 inches. Saratoga, WY received 4 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1986: 6 to 12 inches of rain in three days resulted in record flooding from Muskegon, MI to Saginaw, MI. The flooding was worsened by the collapse of several dams. 10 people were killed and damage estimates approached $500 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1993: The high temperature in Fort Collins, CO was 94°. A strong cold front dropped the temperature overnight and by 10 a.m. the next morning, it was 33° with 3 inches of snow on the ground. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Hurricane Linda became the strongest storm recorded in the eastern Pacific with winds estimated at 180 mph and gusts to 218 mph. For a time it threatened to come ashore in California as a tropical storm, but the storm turned away, impacting the region only with added moisture for showers and thunderstorms. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Extremely dangerous Hurricane Floyd, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 145 mph, was making residents along the U.S. East Coast very nervous as it steamed steadily westward. The storm was 360 miles east of the Bahamas, causing hurricane warnings to be raised in the islands. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Hurricane Ike intensified from tropical storm to Category 3 status in less than nine hours on 3 September. A few days later, Ike crossed the Caribbean and waltzed across extreme western Cuba as a Cat 3. But Ike's peak winds never regained major-hurricane force. Instead, the system simply got bigger, eventually packing some of the largest radii of hurricane-force winds (125 miles) and tropical-storm force winds (275 miles) ever measured. This posed a major public communication challenge, as the vast swath of wind was expected to stir up a storm surge in the Galveston area far worse than people might presume from the storm's Category 2 rating. The worst of Ike's surge struck less-populated areas just east of Galveston Island on the night of 12-13 September, but the overall damage was still tremendous: more than $30 billion (in inflation-adjusted dollars, that's the third costliest U.S. hurricane on record). Much of Galveston and nearby coastal towns were left in shambles, and storm-surge damage extended well east into Louisiana. Ike resulted in 82 U.S. deaths--among the highest tolls in recent decades--and more than 200 people remain missing in the hurricane's aftermath. (Washington Post "Top Ten Weather Events of 2008")


2017: Cape Canaveral Air Force Station have to reopened on September 16th after IRMA of Cat 1 hurricane gave 75 MPH force winds from Hurricane Irma that lashed the Florida Space Coast on Sunday and Monday (Sept. 10/11) – forcing launch delays and leaving damaged and destroyed homes, buildings, infrastructure and launch viewing locations in its wake. Cape Canaveral Air Force Station military forces partially reopened certain critical runways soon after Irma swept by the space coast to assist in emergency recovery operations. The “Kennedy Space Center will resume normal operations Saturday, Sept. 16,” NASA announced.
Irma Data


2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph

[Sundog]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS longer range was too cool for yesterday. It originally had mid 70s from its older forecasts. But the warm spots it to the low 80s yesterday.

 

Data for September 11, 2025 through September 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	83
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	82
Newark Area	ThreadEx	82
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	81
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	81
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	80
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	80
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	80
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	80
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	80
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	80

For yesterday the EPS run from your posted map had the coastal lingering, that's why temps were probably too low.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

For yesterday the EPS run from your posted map had the coastal lingering, that's why temps were probably too low.

Both the GFS and Euro have 850 mb temps which would support 90° highs by later next week at the usual warm spots if the flow becomes SW with full sun. But they have been wavering on whether we get SW or more onshore flow and amounts of clouds. So if the flow stays more onshore, then the warm spots will probably only top out in the mid 80s. 

[wdrag]

21 hours ago, psv88 said:

Upton has a dry weekend east of the city. 

Just catching up: comments...  modeling other than the dry CMCE, has patches of light-=mdt showers Saturday and Sunday.  How it turns out I cant be sure but its repeatedly in guidance that I rely upon including EPS, SPC HREF and now some experimental MPAS guidance.  Middle of next week northern fringe UA low rainfall potential to our NYC subforum.

Drought monitor: I think we need perspective on the dryness...  I just cant get overly concerned. Drought monitor needs a map to show the "perspective" - how unusual component of ST drought. NYC reservoir system less than 2% below normal as of yesterday.

Yes vegetation takes a beating but almost every summer fall this happens... and here we are.   The fall rainfall component I think is in part dependent on tropical connection.  Obviously none so far and yet we got a pretty good dose a few days ago...even Wednesday morning (see CoCoRaHs attached) had some minor impact on sea behavior.  As long as it doesn't get windy and hot... I think we're ok.  

attached the cocorahs for Wednesday morning,

[uofmiami]

36 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Are the overall anomalies being affected by higher low temps?

I don't see any temps higher than upper 70s on the EPS.

Looks like low 80s on EPS, regardless it’s above normal.

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Just catching up: comments...  modeling other than the dry CMCE, has patches of light-=mdt showers Saturday and Sunday.  How it turns out I cant be sure but its repeatedly in guidance that I rely upon including EPS, SPC HREF and now some experimental MPAS guidance.  Middle of next week northern fringe UA low rainfall potential to our NYC subforum.

Drought monitor: I think we need perspective on the dryness...  I just cant get overly concerned. Drought monitor needs a map to show the "perspective" - how unusual component of ST drought. NYC reservoir system less than 2% below normal as of yesterday.

Yes vegetation takes a beating but almost every summer fall this happens... and here we are.   The fall rainfall component I think is in part dependent on tropical connection.  Obviously none so far and yet we got a pretty good dose a few days ago...even Wednesday morning (see CoCoRaHs attached) had some minor impact on sea behavior.  As long as it doesn't get windy and hot... I think we're ok.  

 

Thanks you for the perspective on the "drought"! Completely agree, we in this forum sometimes are overly concerned during dry stretches. There may be a time to worry but now is not it.

[Sundog]

13 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like low 80s on EPS, regardless it’s above normal.

Sunday looks a bit tricky, Euro is the warmest while other models have mnore onshore flow like buewave said might happen.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Thanks you for the perspective on the "drought"! Completely agree, we in this forum sometimes are overly concerned during dry stretches. There may be a time to worry but now is not it.

The recent dry pattern stretching back to last summer has mostly affected the soil moisture and vegetation. It was really only parts of NJ that had issues with the very low reservoirs last fall.  As the NYC watershed upstate didn’t run into any low water supply issues. 

Long range precipitation forecasting is very low skill. We had a 500 year drought back in the 1960s followed by a steady increase in rainfall. While the drought from 1999-2002 did result in NYC watershed restrictions and low reservoir levels, it wasn’t as bad as the 1960s.

We entered a much wetter pattern back in 2003. All our dry periods since then have been short and the rebound to wetter following them was more impressive.

So we will need more time to see if the major drought covering Canada and parts of the CONUS is some type of new pattern the last few years.

In the mean time the dry pattern has been influencing or daily temperature range. The low temperatures have been running significantly cooler than the highs. So this has lead to the great radiational cooling in places like Walpack, NJ. But the high temperatures have been beating guidance on the days with close to full sun and offshore flow.
 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Just catching up: comments...  modeling other than the dry CMCE, has patches of light-=mdt showers Saturday and Sunday.  How it turns out I cant be sure but its repeatedly in guidance that I rely upon including EPS, SPC HREF and now some experimental MPAS guidance.  Middle of next week northern fringe UA low rainfall potential to our NYC subforum.

Drought monitor: I think we need perspective on the dryness...  I just cant get overly concerned. Drought monitor needs a map to show the "perspective" - how unusual component of ST drought. NYC reservoir system less than 2% below normal as of yesterday.

Yes vegetation takes a beating but almost every summer fall this happens... and here we are.   The fall rainfall component I think is in part dependent on tropical connection.  Obviously none so far and yet we got a pretty good dose a few days ago...even Wednesday morning (see CoCoRaHs attached) had some minor impact on sea behavior.  As long as it doesn't get windy and hot... I think we're ok.  

attached the cocorahs for Wednesday morning,

That information is available: Drought Classification | U.S. Drought Monitor

D0 corresponds to indices in the 20th to 30th percentile, meaning any given week, on average, about 3 in 10 years should be at least "abnormally dry." Over the course of the year (52 weeks), the recurrence for at least some period of D0 or worse during the course of the year is probably like once every 2 years (given that the weekly percentile is nearly 1 in 3). It's not particularly rare.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Thanks you for the perspective on the "drought"! Completely agree, we in this forum sometimes are overly concerned during dry stretches. There may be a time to worry but now is not it.

I’m not sure a true long term drought that would lead to widespread water restrictions like out west is possible with our changing climate. So many ways we can get drenched from a one off deluge or generally ways we can get rain. Our long term precip averages have been going up with our temps. 

[STORMANLI]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not sure a true long term drought that would lead to widespread water restrictions like out west is possible with our changing climate. So many ways we can get drenched from a one off deluge or generally ways we can get rain. Our long term precip averages have been going up with our temps. 

Not impossible to get a long-term drought, but not too likely given the convergence of storm tracks in our area.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Up to 76 but an area of clouds rolling through now more sunny

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Up to 76 but an area of clouds rolling through now more sunny

 

Been pretty cloudy here all morning

[Roger Smith]

Frederic went on to drop 4-6 inches of rain in upstate NY and east-central Ontario. I remember the month of Sep 1979 (in Ontario) as being almost bone dry apart from the one day of heavy rain and strong NE winds from then TS Frederic. Then Sep 1989 had a lot more action before Hugo followed a similar track through the Lake Ontario region and dropped similar amounts of rain (landfall in that case was of course SC). 

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That information is available: Drought Classification | U.S. Drought Monitor

D0 corresponds to indices in the 20th to 30th percentile, meaning any given week, on average, about 3 in 10 years should be at least "abnormally dry." Over the course of the year (52 weeks), the recurrence for at least some period of D0 or worse during the course of the year is probably like once every 2 years (given that the weekly percentile is nearly 1 in 3). It's not particularly rare.

Thank you... may take as well as well as Bluewave.  

We've got so many classifications of things...  we've lost simplicity of when to amp interest.  Folks certainly cant keep up with all the changes...  Farmers are interested for sure as this did seem to stunt corn in late summer.  

Otherwise, I view this summer as having been sort of dull...  not much SVR and very limited tropical with heat dominating JJ first week of Aug. 

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will see a continuation of partly sunny skies with highs mainly in the middle and upper 70s on Saturday. A few of the warmer spots could reach or exceed 80°. Sunday will be somewhat warmer with widespread highs in the lower 80s.

Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s on Monday and Tuesday.

September 1-15 remains on track to achieve a solid cool anomaly. Since 2000, there have been nine years that saw a cooler than normal first half of September. Two-thirds of those years went on to record a warmer than normal second half of September. Only two of those years (2017 and 2019) wound up with a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. Overall, for two-thirds of those years, the cool start was sufficiently cool to produce a cooler than normal monthly anomaly. The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001. The last year to record a cooler than normal first half of September followed by a warmer than normal September was 2024.

The latest guidance is continuing to evolve toward a very warm second half of September. As a result, it is plausible that the odds of a warmer than normal September could reach and then exceed 50% as early as tomorrow's guidance. The last September with a cooler than normal first half and a warm overall monthly anomaly was September 2019.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -1.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.382 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[FPizz]

Played 9 holes with my son.  Perfect weather.