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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum


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For the second time in less than a month, Bridgeport is not reporting its precipitation.

Yesterday's hourly data:

image.png.6d8825cce1f41e9e3071ed45da4d6002.png

The lowered visibilities are consistent with falling rain:

image.thumb.png.7edc364dcd58159e6349ea2ef94c3da4.png

Yesterday's NOWData:

image.png.a51d88e30e6449b95ef04d04a6b8a121.png

In sum,Bridgeport had measurable rainfall yesterday. That data was not recorded. So far, today's rainfall has also not been measured. 

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For the second time in less than a month, Bridgeport is not reporting its precipitation.

Yesterday's hourly data:

image.png.6d8825cce1f41e9e3071ed45da4d6002.png

The lowered visibilities are consistent with falling rain:

image.thumb.png.7edc364dcd58159e6349ea2ef94c3da4.png

Yesterday's NOWData:

image.png.a51d88e30e6449b95ef04d04a6b8a121.png

In sum,Bridgeport had measurable rainfall yesterday. That data was not recorded. So far, today's rainfall has also not been measured. 

doesn't even show rain in the hourly obs today either-something is broken there

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I see nothing that excites a thread from me for our NYC subforum for the next week or two, maybe longer?   Glad I didnt  thread yesterday.   Some severe and iso flooding NJ (4+ in Monmouth County per CoCoRaHs).   Overall, the global model guidance defied drier stats, beginning from late August and the wetter global guidance broadly verified, max qpf axis always to be adjusted.  You'll see the Fri-Sun combo results tomorrow.  

I am observing a dead Hurricane Season so far, and note also that I thought this was a quiet summer for severe here in our NYC subforum. 

Have a day,  Walt

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Will be interesting to see if Newark can sneak in one more 90° day to make it to 40 before the season ends.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 2025 39 116
- 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0
10 1961 34 0

 

Seriously doubt. Next 10 days at least will be normal to below normal, and by the time late september/early october arrives, climo works against 90 really really hard. Mid to upper 80s not out of the question last week or so of September though.

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15 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Seriously doubt. Next 10 days at least will be normal to below normal, and by the time late september/early october arrives, climo works against 90 really really hard. Mid to upper 80s not out of the question last week or so of September though.

The source region to our west will really be warming up by next weekend. Remember the models missed the 90° heat yesterday from the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts.

This is what I was discussing back in late August when no 90° days were showing up.

So if we can get one of the big highs over Southeast Canada to drop down to the Carolinas, then the usual warm spots like Newark could make it to 40 days reaching 90° if the winds turn more SW.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The source region to our west will really be warming up by next weekend. Remember the models missed the 90° heat yesterday from the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts.

This is what I was discussing back in late August when no 90° days were showing up.

So if we can get one of the big highs over Southeast Canada to drop down to the Carolinas, then the usual warm spots like Newark could make it to 40 days reaching 90° if the winds turn more SW.

 

 

What model guidance is suggesting the ridge moves east? 

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30 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

What model guidance is suggesting the ridge moves east? 

What model guidance from a few weeks ago suggested that the WAR would flex enough for the 90° warmth yesterday? All the models had a trough in the East for the whole first week of September.

This is why I was pointing out a few weeks ago that it wouldn’t take much to sneak in another 90° day when none of the models were showing it. Plus statistically we haven’t had 2 years in a row at Newark not reach 90 after August 17th in over 20 years.

This week looks cooler and drier as Canadian high pressure dominates.

So if the models are similarly underestimating the ridging in the East later in September on today’s runs, then Newark could make it to 40 days reaching 90° with strong warmth building to our west. I am pretty sure we see more mid to upper 80s like you mentioned. But have included the possibility of another 90° although still to early to know for sure.

There is another factor at play. Cooler periods like we have seen since late August have been few and far between in recent years. When they have occurred the warm ups following them have been more impressive. This could mean a higher number of late season 80° days like last year since we don’t always get 90° heat past early to mid September. 
 

IMG_4622.thumb.png.aad4b239b3eb2f22024a3aca2f5628a0.png
IMG_4623.thumb.png.4c0c943265c7bec0010ea5b90bd8cf5c.png


 

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You two aren't really far apart in this conversation. 

90 degrees was only achieved at two stations, one of them well to our SW and out of our CWA. All others were mid to upper 80s. 

But it also doesn't take that much more to go from 88 to 90 in some hot spots. 

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26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You two aren't really far apart in this conversation. 

90 degrees was only achieved at two stations, one of them well to our SW and out of our CWA. All others were mid to upper 80s. 

But it also doesn't take that much more to go from 88 to 90 in some hot spots. 

Nearly 20 other stations in NJ made it to 90° yesterday in addition to Newark. 
 

 

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Data Viewer

 
Search:
City State Eastern Time Source Daily
Temp
Max
Daily
Temp
Min
Daily
Dew
Point
Max
Daily
Dew
Point
Min
Daily
RH Max
Daily
Min RH
Daily
BP
Max
Daily
BP
Min
Daily
Precip
Daily
Wind
Max
Daily
Wind
Max
Dir
Atlantic City Marina
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 79 71             0.47 32  
Basking Ridge
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 61 78 61 100 66 30.04 29.88 0.20 15 WNW
Berkeley Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 70 75 67 100 56 30.02 29.88 1.15 24 W
Cape May Court House
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 71 76 69 100 64     0.29 16 SSW
Cedar Bridge
NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 89 64 72 60 98 54     1.51 36 W
Charlotteburg
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 62 78 60 100 72 30.02 29.88 0.39 15 N
Cherry Hill
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 68 78 66 100 54     0.25 14 SE
Chester Borough
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 79 61 72 58 97 67 30.05 29.91 0.05 21 NW
Columbus
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 66 77 66 99 58 30.00 29.87 0.70 23 SW
Cream Ridge
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 69 78 67 100 56 29.99 29.84 0.82 21 S
Dennis Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 70 76 68 100 64     1.25 21 NW
East Brunswick
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 65 96 56 30.04 29.88 0.72 38 W
Egg Harbor Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 71 75 69 100 65 30.01 29.88 0.83 17 S
Fort Dix
NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 91 70 74 66 98 46     1.73 25 SSE
Fortescue
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 71 80 71 100 92 30.03 29.87 0.84 41 NW
Greenwich
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 70 79 68 100 67     2.60 21 W
Hackettstown
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 85 59         30.04 29.89 0.40 15  
Hamilton
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 66 99 51     1.08 14 W
Hammonton
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 74 67 100 52     1.47 23 NW
Harvey Cedars
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 79 71             0.84 29  
Haworth
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet                 0.28 24 NW
High Point
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 78 59 71 56 99 71 30.03 29.90 0.02 17 WNW
High Point Monument
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 74 57 70 55 100 77     0.01 27 WSW
Hillsborough-Duke
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 62 76 62 100 63     0.53 26 SW
Holmdel
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 66 75 66 100 56     1.09 16 ESE
Hopewell Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 62 76 62 100 58 30.02 29.87 0.22 31 N
Howell
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 65 75 65 100 55 30.04 29.89 3.01 15 W
Jersey City
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 66 76 64 99 60 29.98 29.80 0.66 25 W
Kingwood
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 63         30.02 29.88 0.07 12  
Little Egg Harbor Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet         100 72 30.02   0.57 31 SW
Little Falls
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 65 74 59 100 62 30.04 29.88 0.05 16 ENE
Logan Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 69 75 64 93 60 30.03 29.87 0.06 18 SW
Lower Alloways Creek
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 79 67 100 60 30.01 29.85 0.38 26 N
Lyndhurst
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 67 74 62 90 63 30.03 29.83 0.48 34 SSW
Mannington Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 69 81 67 100 62 30.01 29.86 0.37 19 SW
Mansfield
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 68 75 67 100 58     0.83 26 NW
Moorestown
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 67 77 67 100 64 30.01 29.87 1.00 25 SSW
Mullica Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 89 68             0.87    
New Brunswick
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 66 75 65 99 52 30.02 29.85 0.66 42 SSW
North Haledon
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 85 65 75 61 99 64 30.04 29.89 0.22 17 SE
Oceanport
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 66 76 66 100 69     3.06 26 NNW
Oswego Lake
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 67 76 66 100 59 29.98 29.84 1.62 21 S
Parsippany
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 81 64             0.69    
Pennsauken
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 70 73 66 92 55 30.03 29.87 0.12 24 WSW
Pequest
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 61 76 61 100 64 30.04 29.86 0.43 16 W
Piney Hollow
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 75 67 100 57     1.88 18 NNW
Pittstown
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 63 73 60 95 59 30.04 29.91   18 W
Point Pleasant
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 68             0.73 19  
Ramsey
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 62         29.99 29.83 0.06 13  
Red Lion
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 91 68                  
Sandyston
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 81 60 72 57 100 67 30.02 29.88 0.02 14 W
Sea Girt
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 68 75 68 100 76 30.03 29.89 0.86 28 S
Seaside Heights
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 73 70             0.42 8  
Sewell
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 70 76 68 100 59     0.60 15 SSW
Sicklerville
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 93 70 77 67 100 53 29.98 29.85 1.48 17 SW
Silas Little
NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 91 68 73 65 98 46     2.12 22 S
South Harrison
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 68 77 67 99 63     0.26 16 NW
Stewartsville
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 62         30.04 29.89 0.04 20  
Toms River
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 71 73 66 99 52     0.62 22 SSW
Upper Deerfield
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 70 78 68 100 64 30.01 29.88 2.62 29 W
Vernon Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 78 58     100 71     0.02 20  
Vineland
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 70 80 69 100 60 30.01   1.63 22 NW
Wall Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 67 76 67 100 67     0.98 17 SW
Walpack
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 57 72 56 99 65 30.05 29.92 0.01 14 N
Wantage
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 77 60     94 67 30.03 29.88 0.03 23  
West Cape May
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 81 68 79 68 100 88     0.01 17 NNW
West Deptford
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 70 76 64 98 56 30.03 29.87 0.15 15 S
Woodbine
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 70 78 68 100 59 30.01 29.85 0.99 20 S
Woodland Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 66 100 58     2.22 30

 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What model guidance from a few weeks ago suggested that the WAR would flex enough for the 90° warmth yesterday? All the models had a trough in the East for the whole first week of September.

This is why I was pointing out a few weeks ago that it wouldn’t take much to sneak in another 90° day when none of the models were showing it. Plus statistically we haven’t had 2 years in a row at Newark not reach 90 after August 17th in over 20 years.

This week looks cooler and drier as Canadian high pressure dominates.

So if the models are similarly underestimating the ridging in the East later in September on today’s runs, then Newark could make it to 40 days reaching 90° with strong warmth building to our west. I am pretty sure we see more mid to upper 80s like you mentioned. But have included the possibility of another 90° although still to early to know for sure.

There is another factor at play. Cooler periods like we have seen since late August have been few and far between in recent years. When they have occurred the warm ups following them have been more impressive. This could mean a higher number of late season 80° days like last year since we don’t always get 90° heat past early to mid September. 
 

IMG_4622.thumb.png.aad4b239b3eb2f22024a3aca2f5628a0.png
IMG_4623.thumb.png.4c0c943265c7bec0010ea5b90bd8cf5c.png


 

It should also be noted that since 2000, there has been a tendency for Newark's above normal days to be backloaded in September (relative to the 1991-2020 baseline):

image.thumb.png.a2f9c3098f1369e2c113366d6a599741.png

That doesn't mean that this year will be the case, but the idea that there could be much warmer air in the Plains States/Midwest toward mid-month suggests that it's something to watch for should the guidance continue to show such warmth in the Plains States/Midwest. 

The Week 3 outlooks on the ECMWF Weeklies and the CFSv2 are warmer than normal in the Northeast:

image.png.7d608ba2d70f225dd9f9dfc70f90e2d0.png

image.png.df56f06560e204785e15c954bcc6f25d.png

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should also be noted that since 2000, there has been a tendency for Newark's above normal days to be backloaded in September (relative to the 1991-2020 baseline):

image.thumb.png.a2f9c3098f1369e2c113366d6a599741.png

That doesn't mean that this year will be the case, but the idea that there could be much warmer air in the Plains States/Midwest toward mid-month suggests that it's something to watch for should the guidance continue to show such warmth in the Plains States/Midwest. 

The Week 3 outlooks on the ECMWF Weeklies and the CFSv2 are warmer than normal in the Northeast:

image.png.7d608ba2d70f225dd9f9dfc70f90e2d0.png

image.png.df56f06560e204785e15c954bcc6f25d.png

Yeah, the one constant is that the warm departures have consistently been more impressive than the cool departures over the years. So when we get these brief cooler patterns, the rebound back to warmer is of a greater magnitude. Whether we just bounce  back to mid 80s later in September or see a few warm spots reach 90° again is still unknown. 


 

IMG_4624.thumb.png.b14d51368bee64cf13f132f254ec5b9c.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nearly 20 other stations in NJ made it to 90° yesterday in addition to Newark. 
 

 

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Search:
City State Eastern Time Source Daily
Temp
Max
Daily
Temp
Min
Daily
Dew
Point
Max
Daily
Dew
Point
Min
Daily
RH Max
Daily
Min RH
Daily
BP
Max
Daily
BP
Min
Daily
Precip
Daily
Wind
Max
Daily
Wind
Max
Dir
Atlantic City Marina
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 79 71             0.47 32  
Basking Ridge
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 61 78 61 100 66 30.04 29.88 0.20 15 WNW
Berkeley Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 70 75 67 100 56 30.02 29.88 1.15 24 W
Cape May Court House
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 71 76 69 100 64     0.29 16 SSW
Cedar Bridge
NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 89 64 72 60 98 54     1.51 36 W
Charlotteburg
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 62 78 60 100 72 30.02 29.88 0.39 15 N
Cherry Hill
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 68 78 66 100 54     0.25 14 SE
Chester Borough
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 79 61 72 58 97 67 30.05 29.91 0.05 21 NW
Columbus
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 66 77 66 99 58 30.00 29.87 0.70 23 SW
Cream Ridge
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 69 78 67 100 56 29.99 29.84 0.82 21 S
Dennis Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 70 76 68 100 64     1.25 21 NW
East Brunswick
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 65 96 56 30.04 29.88 0.72 38 W
Egg Harbor Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 71 75 69 100 65 30.01 29.88 0.83 17 S
Fort Dix
NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 91 70 74 66 98 46     1.73 25 SSE
Fortescue
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 71 80 71 100 92 30.03 29.87 0.84 41 NW
Greenwich
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 70 79 68 100 67     2.60 21 W
Hackettstown
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 85 59         30.04 29.89 0.40 15  
Hamilton
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 66 99 51     1.08 14 W
Hammonton
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 74 67 100 52     1.47 23 NW
Harvey Cedars
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 79 71             0.84 29  
Haworth
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet                 0.28 24 NW
High Point
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 78 59 71 56 99 71 30.03 29.90 0.02 17 WNW
High Point Monument
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 74 57 70 55 100 77     0.01 27 WSW
Hillsborough-Duke
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 62 76 62 100 63     0.53 26 SW
Holmdel
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 66 75 66 100 56     1.09 16 ESE
Hopewell Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 62 76 62 100 58 30.02 29.87 0.22 31 N
Howell
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 65 75 65 100 55 30.04 29.89 3.01 15 W
Jersey City
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 66 76 64 99 60 29.98 29.80 0.66 25 W
Kingwood
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 63         30.02 29.88 0.07 12  
Little Egg Harbor Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet         100 72 30.02   0.57 31 SW
Little Falls
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 65 74 59 100 62 30.04 29.88 0.05 16 ENE
Logan Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 69 75 64 93 60 30.03 29.87 0.06 18 SW
Lower Alloways Creek
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 79 67 100 60 30.01 29.85 0.38 26 N
Lyndhurst
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 67 74 62 90 63 30.03 29.83 0.48 34 SSW
Mannington Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 69 81 67 100 62 30.01 29.86 0.37 19 SW
Mansfield
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 68 75 67 100 58     0.83 26 NW
Moorestown
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 87 67 77 67 100 64 30.01 29.87 1.00 25 SSW
Mullica Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 89 68             0.87    
New Brunswick
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 66 75 65 99 52 30.02 29.85 0.66 42 SSW
North Haledon
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 85 65 75 61 99 64 30.04 29.89 0.22 17 SE
Oceanport
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 66 76 66 100 69     3.06 26 NNW
Oswego Lake
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 67 76 66 100 59 29.98 29.84 1.62 21 S
Parsippany
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 81 64             0.69    
Pennsauken
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 91 70 73 66 92 55 30.03 29.87 0.12 24 WSW
Pequest
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 61 76 61 100 64 30.04 29.86 0.43 16 W
Piney Hollow
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 92 69 75 67 100 57     1.88 18 NNW
Pittstown
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 63 73 60 95 59 30.04 29.91   18 W
Point Pleasant
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 68             0.73 19  
Ramsey
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 62         29.99 29.83 0.06 13  
Red Lion
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 91 68                  
Sandyston
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 81 60 72 57 100 67 30.02 29.88 0.02 14 W
Sea Girt
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 68 75 68 100 76 30.03 29.89 0.86 28 S
Seaside Heights
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 73 70             0.42 8  
Sewell
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 70 76 68 100 59     0.60 15 SSW
Sicklerville
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 93 70 77 67 100 53 29.98 29.85 1.48 17 SW
Silas Little
NJ 2025-09-06 USFS 91 68 73 65 98 46     2.12 22 S
South Harrison
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 88 68 77 67 99 63     0.26 16 NW
Stewartsville
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 83 62         30.04 29.89 0.04 20  
Toms River
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 71 73 66 99 52     0.62 22 SSW
Upper Deerfield
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 70 78 68 100 64 30.01 29.88 2.62 29 W
Vernon Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 78 58     100 71     0.02 20  
Vineland
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 70 80 69 100 60 30.01   1.63 22 NW
Wall Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 86 67 76 67 100 67     0.98 17 SW
Walpack
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 82 57 72 56 99 65 30.05 29.92 0.01 14 N
Wantage
NJ 2025-09-06 SafetyNet 77 60     94 67 30.03 29.88 0.03 23  
West Cape May
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 81 68 79 68 100 88     0.01 17 NNW
West Deptford
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 70 76 64 98 56 30.03 29.87 0.15 15 S
Woodbine
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 89 70 78 68 100 59 30.01 29.85 0.99 20 S
Woodland Twp.
NJ 2025-09-06 Mesonet 90 67 75 66 100 58     2.22 30

 

 

What percentage of total stations in Upton made it to 90? Or at least within 50 miles of NYC?

I ask because I don't know where most of those stations are and if they are in a tight geographic area it might not represent that much of the region. 

I also don't count stations that are too far away, for example I don't care if Philly gets to 90, they're 100 miles away.  

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1 minute ago, Sundog said:

 

What percentage of total stations in Upton made it to 90? Or at least within 50 miles of NYC?

I ask because I don't know where most of those stations are and if they are in a tight geographic area it might not represent that much of the region. 

I also don't count stations that are too far away, for example I don't care if Philly gets to 90, they're 100 miles away.  

I know the NYC micronet in Fresh Kills made it to 92° yesterday and Newark was 90° along with Harrison.The next area of 90° highs was spread out from SNJ to CNJ.  
 

Fresh Kills 92 67


 

Climatological Data for HARRISON, NJ - September 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2025-09-01 80 61 70.5 -2.9 0 6 0.00 0.0 0
2025-09-02 80 60 70.0 -3.1 0 5 0.00 0.0 0
2025-09-03 79 58 68.5 -4.4 0 4 0.00 0.0 0
2025-09-04 81 62 71.5 -1.1 0 7 0.00 0.0 0
2025-09-05 80 65 72.5 0.1 0 8 0.89 0.0 0
2025-09-06 86 67 76.5 4.4 0 12 0.00 0.0 0
2025-09-07 90 61 75.5 3.7 0 11 1.29 0.0

 

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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

You two aren't really far apart in this conversation. 

90 degrees was only achieved at two stations, one of them well to our SW and out of our CWA. All others were mid to upper 80s. 

But it also doesn't take that much more to go from 88 to 90 in some hot spots. 

Philly runs way high too, cheap 90.  

Only a handful made 90 overall.  Only made it to 85 here with rain moving in early

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At least 14 years have had a 90F or higher reading in astronomical autumn (not a precise measure but I counted only cases from Sep 21 onward). These fourteen qualified, I will do a deeper search and edit this if I find any hidden ones. Those with an asterisk did not set a daily record  or did not maintain it to present day. A few of these years (1895, 1914, 1941, 1970) had several days above 90. There were also 89s in 1922, 1926, 1949, 1958, 1959, 1986, 1998 and 2010.  

1881 1895 1914 1927 * 1931 * 1933 1938 1939 1940 * 1941 1970 1980 * 2017 2019 

In these fourteen years there were at least 25 days with 90+ readings and the average of all of them was 92. The highest was 97 (23rd 1895). 

So never say never to 90F. 

* to be clear about 1927, it holds a record of 88F for Oct 1st but lost its 90F record for the 2nd to 2019. The others marked (1931, 1940, 1980) were not records when they happened, as they were in the 1895-1914 era. Most of the 89F readings are not records either, the 1986 one is (Sep 30th). It was 88F as late as Oct 22nd 1979. That date also had the record high min of 67F in 1979. This was probably the latest calendar date to match modern normal temperatures in July (Nov 1-2 1950 were close). 

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17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

At least 14 years have had a 90F or higher reading in astronomical autumn (not a precise measure but I counted only cases from Sep 21 onward). These fourteen qualified, I will do a deeper search and edit this if I find any hidden ones. Those with an asterisk did not set a daily record  or did not maintain it to present day. A few of these years (1895, 1914, 1941, 1970) had several days above 90. There were also 89s in 1922, 1926, 1949, 1958, 1959, 1986, 1998 and 2010.  

1881 1895 1914 1927 * 1931 * 1933 1938 1939 1940 * 1941 1970 1980 * 2017 2019 

In these fourteen years there were at least 25 days with 90+ readings and the average of all of them was 92. The highest was 97 (23rd 1895). 

So never say never to 90F. 

* to be clear about 1927, it holds a record of 88F for Oct 1st but lost its 90F record for the 2nd to 2019. The others marked (1931, 1940, 1980) were not records when they happened, as they were in the 1895-1914 era. Most of the 89F readings are not records either, the 1986 one is (Sep 30th). It was 88F as late as Oct 22nd 1979. That date also had the record high min of 67F in 1979. This was probably the latest calendar date to match modern normal temperatures in July (Nov 1-2 1950 were close). 

Years with one or more 90° temperatures on or after the fall equinox for select New York City Area locations:

Bridgeport: 1970
Islip: 1980
New York City-Central Park:  1881, 1895, 1914, 1927, 1933, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1959, 1961, 1970, 1980, 2017, 2019
New York City-JFK Airport: 1970, 1980, 2007, 2017, 2019
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1941, 1946, 1970, 1980, 1998, 2007, 2010, 2017, 2019
Newark: 1881, 1895, 1908, 1914, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1949, 1958, 1959, 1961, 1968, 1970, 1980, 1998, 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2019
White Plains: 1970, 2017, 2019

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7 hours ago, MANDA said:

Picked up .35" yesterday afternoon into this morning.  Had .22" in early afternoon T-Shower and an additional .13" overnight with periods of light rain and drizzle.  All done now.  Total for month up to 2.50".  Dry week ahead but these two rain events were a big help.  Things looking greener.

Pleasant temperatures this coming week with some chilly nights.

I'm half that at 1.20 for the month.  We only got 0.08" out of everything yesterday and this morning.  
What I have noticed lately is the stubborn banding and pretty sharp cutoffs.  In that wherever the banding starts to set up, that's who's getting it, and it's not wavering much.  Things always seem to train northeast over the same spots.   I'd love to see a study of summer thunderstorm precipitation patterns in this area because it always seems to be two distinct areas.  The most common is  over the Delaware Water Gap and places to the north and west, and the other, not as frequent area is to the south and east, starting well south of Philly and training up and eventually off shore towards Long Island.  The drought monitor shows this, and I'll be curious to see how it changes next week.  Perhaps just a short term blip, or something longer term due to climate and topography.  But it's definately a thing.

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As of 4 pm, Central Park had a high of 68°. Should Central Park have a high of 69° or below, it would be the first time New York City has seen a high in the 60s during the first week of September since September 6, 2019 when the mercury topped out at 67°.

Yesterday, Central Park received 1.01" of rain, its first 1.00" or above daily rainfall since July 14. Additional rain fell today. Two-day rainfall amounts across the region included:

Islip: 0.77" 
New Haven: 1.39"
New York City-Central Park: 1.64"
New York City-JFK Airport: 0.99"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.56"
Newark: 0.89"
White Plains: 1.56"

Temperatures will mainly top out in the 70s during the daytime and fall into the 50s at nighttime in New York City through at least Wednesday. Thursday could be briefly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Additional showers or rain is possible on Thursday, as another cold front crosses the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +6.95 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.932 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.2° (1.0° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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