Damage In Tolland Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah probably maritime taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago I think we need to wait until mid month for AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah probably maritime taint? Looks like confluence to me with the ridge axis to our west. Big sfc high on modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like confluence to me with the ridge axis to our west. Big sfc high on modeling. NE and E flow at 850mb? Looks wedged. BTV warmest place in New England during that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think we need to wait until mid month for AN. Christmas is right around the corner...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NE and E flow at 850mb? Looks wedged. BTV warmest place in New England during that time? All of the ec modeling looks like big diurnal type days. Lalaland but would be some frost/freeze threats for the big rad sites. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shes got him in rear naked choke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 58 minutes ago, dendrite said: All of the ec modeling looks like big diurnal type days. Lalaland but would be some frost/freeze threats for the big rad sites. Man Stein really has you . Never seen you like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Two schools ... 1 climate; we're always getting some kind of decimal value feedback that corrupts toward higher numbers. Emphasis on DECIMALS. Still ... it plays a role. 2 excluding that ... this month has never looked convincing to me as an above normal month. The indices have up to this point been vague at best on that idea. Mostly what I'm seeing in the modeling is warmth getting pushed back out in time. Meanwhile ... with flat ongoing index signaling, that's usually a red flag for their being full of shit with warm(cool) changes when this is the larger circumstance. The operational runs have a kind of quasi elasticity in their behavior. The moment they're physics spontaneously engender a faux pattern relaxation, their processing goes on to bouncing the other way. But, then the extended becomes the mid range ...and reality corrects that. This song and dance happens on both sides, cool vs warm pattern foots. We see this in bad winter performance times, too, where the big pattern change is always just beyond D10. Then we finally get a snow threat in March after we've been conned for 49 days like taunted abuse. Lol. We more than merely symbolically ruined summer about 3 weeks ago, give or take. It's been a BN pattern in principle really since; whether that has been verifying precisely as that in the dailies doesn't deny the essence, however. Now, quite coherently a geriatric summer that doesn't have time to fuck around is suffering this correction on in time bullshit. (Also, it's Meteorological first day of autumn... which doesn't mean anything but just along the way here - ) So if you are a warm enthusiasts... good luck. Patterns do change. That could happen. But here's just one example of covert/sneaky correcting while everyone's thinking at warm up is en route. Euro, 24 hour correction ... barely noticeable, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I think we need to wait until mid month for AN. By then daily highs are in the upper 60s/ low 70s. Best time of the year we have entered. Warm days/cool nights. Viva la Septemberrrrrr. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Today looks like a total bummer. Nothing but clouds out here in block island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Today looks like a total bummer. Nothing but clouds out here in block island. Sun is starting to come out here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 hours ago, dendrite said: I think we need to wait until mid month for AN. Even if we go above who cares at that point.. averages going down down down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Even if we go above who cares at that point.. averages going down down down.. To be fair, why do we care any time of year? This is a weather forum haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Even if we go above who cares at that point.. averages going down down down.. You miss the point . You don’t want a torch pattern going into autumn which is exactly what looks like is happening . This last week was probably the coolest weather until sometime later in October . Once the troughs and cool stop next week. It’s gone 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Haven’t been here in about two weeks and good to know nothing has changed. Why exactly do we have separate monthly posts for each month during the warmer times of the year. Could just have one for Junulaugtember and we would be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 25 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Haven’t been here in about two weeks and good to know nothing has changed. Why exactly do we have separate monthly posts for each month during the warmer times of the year. Could just have one for Junulaugtember and we would be fine. ? any different in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ? any different in the winter Probably not. We could have an Octnodecufebrarch thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You miss the point . You don’t want a torch pattern going into autumn which is exactly what looks like is happening . This last week was probably the coolest weather until sometime later in October . Once the troughs and cool stop next week. It’s gone farther BN, quite possible. Lowest temps, maybe 5% chance. Avg for Aug 31 here 72/50. For Oct 16 it's 56/35. Temps are very unlikely to overcome the 10-15° (1st and 16th) drop in averages and verify the boldface. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You miss the point . You don’t want a torch pattern going into autumn which is exactly what looks like is happening . This last week was probably the coolest weather until sometime later in October . Once the troughs and cool stop next week. It’s gone Who cares. Off the top of my head, fall of 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017, and 2022 were torches up here and great winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You miss the point . You don’t want a torch pattern going into autumn which is exactly what looks like is happening . This last week was probably the coolest weather until sometime later in October . Once the troughs and cool stop next week. It’s gone We all know if we have a deep trough and great pattern in October, everyone would be losing their shit that we are “wasting it” too early. We, as members of this forum, can talk ourselves into worrying about anything when it comes to winter. Warm autumn, cold autumn… we can get to the worrying part in multiple different ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Pretty cloudy day. Was up in Hopkinton at State Park doing some light hiking. Not a bad day overall but not as nice as the last 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pretty cloudy day. Was up in Hopkinton at State Park doing some light hiking. Not a bad day overall but not as nice as the last 2. Sun never really came out all day. It's trying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty big signal of a WAN pattern setting up after the 10th for rest of month. Just when we don’t want it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 21 minutes ago, kdxken said: Sun never really came out all day. It's trying again. Persistent southerly flow. Did feel a bit dewy too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Friday rain really backing off across SNE. Stein really digging in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Who cares. Off the top of my head, fall of 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017, and 2022 were torches up here and great winters. I checked - all 5 brought 100"+ here and averaged 130% of the 27-winter mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: We all know if we have a deep trough and great pattern in October, everyone would be losing their shit that we are “wasting it” too early. We, as members of this forum, can talk ourselves into worrying about anything when it comes to winter. Warm autumn, cold autumn… we can get to the worrying part in multiple different ways. Hold me, I’m worried about a warm cold autumnly winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Friday rain really backing off across SNE. Stein really digging in now Dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 16 minutes ago Share Posted 16 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Dry begets dry. Your area modeled for most ..50 or so . We’ll see . This one actually favors NNE and especially NW NE. More typical than this summer was. Dendy should get a good drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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