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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro further west with both storms at hr144   usually don't have two storms competing with each other.. so can you really use climo? 

I'm talking about upper climo... Pattern aloft has to have a semblance of a known pattern that has in the past allowed for a landfall?   We can certainly have some odd tracks when 2 circulations interfere with each other.  But their tracks still will be controlled by the upper levels.

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As is, that’s moving too slow. That thing wouldn’t even produce a wind gust at Worcester. But just a light breezes on the Cape.

Can’t move a system that slowly over cold water that large south of Long Island.  The oceanic boundary layer becomes an impenetrable inversion, and there would be no wind beneath the cloud height, particularly when there’s rising pressure in the core.

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