Tracking the tropics - 2025

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro further west with both storms at hr144   usually don't have two storms competing with each other.. so can you really use climo? 

I'm talking about upper climo... Pattern aloft has to have a semblance of a known pattern that has in the past allowed for a landfall?   We can certainly have some odd tracks when 2 circulations interfere with each other.  But their tracks still will be controlled by the upper levels.

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What pattern is in place to pull that NNW west of CTRV?

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What pattern is in place to pull that NNW west of CTRV?

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Eps is interesting 

 

We track

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is interesting 

 

We track

yup it could be a fun week of model watching 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

You see that cold front / trough and deep  NW flow depicted there shoving it East or are you Helen Kellering it? 
 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You see that cold front / trough and deep  NW flow depicted there shoving it East or are you Helen Kellering it? 
 

huh if that digs enough it would pull it up

[Damage In Tolland]

Sigh 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Sigh 

where is the west flow?  that digs a little more it would come up

[ineedsnow]

[psv88]

Fish

[Damage In Tolland]

Cold front west flow gone . On that look 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold front west flow gone . On that look 

[ineedsnow]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1970641972143530251

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sigh 

Model Huggers…  

[mreaves]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is interesting 

 

We track

 

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

yup it could be a fun week of model watching 

Metfan and ineedsnow, the dynamic duo. Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

As is, that’s moving too slow. That thing wouldn’t even produce a wind gust at Worcester. But just a light breezes on the Cape.

Can’t move a system that slowly over cold water that large south of Long Island.  The oceanic boundary layer becomes an impenetrable inversion, and there would be no wind beneath the cloud height, particularly when there’s rising pressure in the core.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

 

ots......congrats

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Fish

Bold

[WxWatcher007]

I mean, the first thing when discussing New England tropical is caveating it to death about how hard it is to get legit tropical up this way. 

Now that that's out of the way, if we're talking about strictly a NE landfall I agree with @FXWX, the overall setup does not lend itself to a Long Island Express scenario. Not even close. Here's what the general NE landfall steering pattern looks like: 

 

And here are the latest 500mb depictions of the EPS and GEFS for Monday at 12z:

 

The GFS/GEFS originally led the way in highlighting the possibility of TC genesis, but has seemed to be way off with trying to consolidate 93L and 94L off the southeast coast. That has its own implications but just look at the 500h vs the usual NE setup. Yeah, there's a cutoff in the southeast, but the ridge is too far west and that opens an escape hatch to the east even if this landfalls further south. 

The EPS is a little more interesting to me but you can see the same issue. The cutoff and ridge over the top brings a potential US threat, but its further south, again because the ridge is too far west and that opens the escape hatch to the east. 

Here's 18z Euro operational:

 

Even with a highly anomalous potential interaction off the SE coast with two hurricanes, you have the same issue, though the UL cutoff is still around and there is a strong Atlantic ridge (that would likely still lead to an escape hatch with that NW flow in SE Canada). What you'd need for a coastal runner imo is either 1) the ridge quickly translating east over SE Canada, thereby blocking the escape hatch or 2) a stronger and further north cutoff that can capture and pull whatever is out there into the coast (though even there you risk a close miss rather than a direct strike). 

This is very different further south, especially in the Carolinas if this is buried in the Bahamas and there's a cutoff to the west.

So while this could very well be a SE or even Mid-Atlantic threat, right now a direct NE hit looks least likely. With so many moving pieces however and the trends that we could see either way with the amplitude and orientation of the ridges/troughs, I do think this is worth watching. Whether it is worth more attention here than anything we've had sense Henri or Isaias remains to be seen. 

This does look like a rare scenario where both invests develop despite their proximity.